Member Info for lejjb

Today's attacks by Putin have unfortunately had an effect in spite of the air defences.
https://news.sky.com/story/russia-launches-massive-missile-attack-on-ukraine-12769133
There will come a point where the energy supply to Ferrexpo will be affected, whether directly or indirectly (if the government decides to redirect more energy to its citizens' immediate needs).
I fear an RNS from the company may drop over the next few trading sessions on that basis.

Yes and no.
1- a very low SP makes it harder for the company to get finance.
2- standard shorting does not necessarily influence the SP anyway, EXCEPT when shorters engage in media manipulation (which none of us can prove though).
3- NAKED shorting, a practice whose legality is questionable, does harm a company's SP.

Valueplay - “12 am” ie midnight. So we should have
Had it for 8h13 now.

Quite a spike in volume this late morning. It could of course be a pump and dump but it's a relatively low profile share... I haven't found any recent news online though.

Knowbodyyouknow - you are interested in comments about the quality, prospects etc. of Asos?
I am bearish too, but I will happily explain the reasons here.
Its business model is thorough challenged for several reasons:
1- returns - it's become a bigger trend for the past 12-18 months and it costs Asos more money. So it's charging for them, but that deters people from buying as happily as they used to.
2- profit sources - I understand that it primarily sells directly to consumers - which is different from Zalando: while its SP has struggled to, it has a series of mixed agreements with manufacturers, incl. ones where it just acts as a "facilitator" (like a marketplace), so its sources of income are more spread out.
3- limited scalability - its primarily UK market. The rest of Europe is already crowded (Zalando again). Compare with Ocado which(for reasons I don't quite understand) seems to be one of the few to have "cracked" fresh food delivery, so it has been able to license / service other food retailers like Lotte in South Korea, so it has such scalability. Asos, by comparison, somehow does not offer a comparatively "special" service.
4- shorter term pressure on disposable income: consumers are gradually more aware that money will not keep flowing - they have spent a lot recently, but their money just does not grow on trees. So it's more likely to go back to the old "death of the middle" in recession where people spend on very basics (Boohoo, or more likely Shein) or pricier products (maybe M&S, but thinking of more luxury (and not online) retailers). Asos is unfortunately "in the middle".
5- pressure on margins - sure, inflation seems to be stabilising, but it's not going away either and the various hedging deals will run out so Asos is unlikely to see profits per transaction to go back up to healthy levels any time soon.

So we can live "in hope", and Asos is well enough run not to go under, but I don't see why the markets will help its SP go back up within the next 6 to 12 months. I'd stand aside until more clarity, even if that means missing that magical "bottom"...

"Buy with a target price of 75p is its view."

https://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/999436/marston-s-to-emerge-stronger-from-pub-sector-s-grim-winter-broker-999436.html
It's from the broker so always positively biased. Two interesting things:
- the SP could have tanked in spite of the quasi-profit warning given: it did not and was moderately stable instead.
- this MIGHT have helped flush out traders / investors who had doubts about the company (speculative from my part).
On balance, this note has been useful IMO.

A tiny teeny little bit more of info here:
https://the-blindspot.com/spot-markets-live-transcript-21-11-22/

I'm struggling to assess the credibility of the Betaville-originated rumour, as subsequently reported here 9 days ago:
https://seekingalpha.com/news/3908204-elementis-may-be-seeing-takeover-interest-report
I'm aware of the two successive offer in H1 2021, the last (rejected) one being £160 per share, but I can't assess what would have a(nother) possible purchaser change its mind and go back to the buying booth - the weakened pound?

(Correction - I meant info about the nature of the holding relevant to the swap.)

I don't see any info about the nature of the holding - except that it's not shares, so it might not be the same level of exposure in the company.

My informal and unproven enquires also suggest that UK (vs other countries') housebuilders could face a situation worse than 2008, for the following (very different from 2008) reasons:
- rate hikes were faster than what heavily indebted (for good or bad reason) businesses could prepare for. And housebuilders rely a lot on credit as part of their land acquisitions.
- spiraling utility and food bills, together with increasing mortage rates, have made it harder for people to buy new houses.
There is a high risk that UK housebuilders will have to offload their assets at heavily discounted prices if they cannot sustainably match their increasing debt obligations. Combined with low demand for houses due to the inherent lack of affordability, Barratt is at a cliff's edge.

Respect!

Just one more point: pubs are certainly not the healthiest sector right now (as most consumer retail businesses in the UK) but Marston's is in an odd position as its SP is treated as if we were still in the middle of the pandemic, pre-vaccine and pre- Carlsberg deal. And it was explicit that it had some of its energy deals fixed before everything went tits up until 2025. So while margins and demand will be affected by the current events, it is still in a healthy position vs other large pub chains (except maybe Young's that's surprisingly doing well) and its marcap is priced in as if it were still at substantial risk of going under due to Covid.
So it's not a screaming buy, the situation is more mixed but not fully bad. Thus I rely on TA even more here to give me some more basic guidance.

I rarely believe anyone who claims to be a pure chartist and still makes money, but charts are a useful tool amongst others to gauge sentiment.
I just don't overly rely on them and I try to be as exacting as possible with charts, i.e. I want very clear signals or I tend to exit my positions.

I roughly ended up at break even (I use leveraged trading.) But my primary concern wasn't to make money on intraday or 1-3 day movements, it was to protect my capital. If that means I might get back in for a deal that's not as good, so be it, at least I aim to keep my losses in check first and foremost.
And TA (good one, so not most of what's posted on Twitter is utter rubbish) does have a some self-defeating aspect like you rightly pointed out: pros and algos tend to go for the strongest signal . So it's a balancing exercise. But one aspect that mirrors what you mention is that many people avoid mentioning their targets for that very reason - or many who do give vastly inflated ones. Or they have several intermediate targets, taking profits along the way.

Learn about serious TA, bother looking at the charts that I actually posted, read again what I’ve written and then see whether you’ll say the same thing.

When a pattern has been broken, you have to reassess your position. Better doing it asap before it gets too late to preserve one’s capital.

And note that I didn’t give a downwards target when I said « “mildly bearish”, because that bearishness was indeed only mild and the outcome not clear at all.

The large intraday swings of the SP are the reason for my subsequent re-reassessment.

Pattern roughly back in play and broken through the oblique resistance again - the past 2-3 trading days were brutal.
https://www.tradingview.com/x/NLlC6FEX/
We're also now above the volume shelf, the next one is in the high 40's, and the momentum indicators are all pointing up. Looking good again.

Pattern now broken, mildly bearish now.

Only a proper insider will know: they were deliberately non-specific in the RNS not to spook the markets.