Member Info for lejjb

For once, SuperC what you are writing is reasonable (Vs widely optimistic claims).

I’ve just got back into MARS: the chart isn’t clearly pointing in either direction TBH but the regular big buys for the past two days have stood out for me.

Robcodsall - your points are correct except for your suggestion that banks will become impatient. It’s not usually the case: so long as the borrower meets its payments deadlines, a bank is fine with a long-term loan repayment scheme as it means the bank keeps getting a steady income.

Quarterly trading statements are the norm for medium - large retail entities. It is not a good or bad thing there is such a trading statement due in September, Marstons is just following the norm.

...Hence my referring to the 5 December preliminary (i.e. unaudited) results - from the page that I put in my earlier post, and from which you lifted the dates.

Supercharger: No.

The last trading statement did NOT include profit . Just sales / equivalent.

The only thing that MIGHT make the SP move is when actual profit figures are released - which will probably only be at the next set of unaudited results of 5 December.

https://www.marstonspubs.co.uk/investors/

Until then, more sales figures with no idea of how much money actually stays in Marston's coffers to pay its debt obligations at inflated interest rates vs the original rates pre-Covid when money was practically free.

Diagonal support line broken due to today's SP decrease: the bullish pattern has been invalidated.

This is not looking as good anymore.

https://www.tradingview.com/x/oIWeNSZe/

There is a flat top triangle (aka ascending triangle) taking shape.

https://www.tradingview.com/x/KuZtwoGM/

This suggests a consolidation before a significant move upwards.

https://www.investopedia.com/terms/t/triangle.asp

FairDealer - SC has repeatedly shouted partial pictures of the company's business situation. He has not demonstrated any inside view - which would be illegal anyway.

The post from FINANCEmagic below does not actually provide any info on costs and other expenditures, expect the phrase "energy cost savings" but note that Marston's said it had its gas (or energy as a whole?) costs set to 2024 so it is likely less impact by the probably decrease of energy prices this quarter because its energy costs were (relatively) lower in the first place due to that prior arrangement.

What sticks out like a sore thumb, and which everybody vocally praising Marston's has carefully avoided mentioning, is the interest rate rises of the past 18-20 months. The pile of debts from Marston's was fine with low interest rates, but with the fast recent increases, that puts the business under extreme pressure.

Sure, some lender have set interest rates for several years ahead, but those loans are mostly staggered and regularly reevaluated.

Thus, there is no 100% clear information as to how close to the edge Marston's is (or not?) due to its debt pile, which probably explains why Marston's has been lingering near the bottom while other pub companies have risen well above in the meantime.

Looks like a technical glitch in the way share trades were reported. My live pricing was not affected.

That explains why the SP still hasn't taken off then. There needs a substantial debt reduction event to help this share - putting £60m worth of property out for sale (so no actual finalisation of those sales yet) barely dents that £1bn+ debt pile and indeed hasn't impressed the market.

TBH the scale of the inflation and the subsequent speed of interest rate rises took everyone by surprise. The decision to reject offers below the NAV was fair back then.

Do you know what "profit", "debt" and "interest rate" mean?...

Yes, the board might be more open to accepting a takeover offer than it was 2.5 years ago - I would not be surprised if we get sold at 100p per share in 2 months (IIRC that was the highest figure rejected in February 2021?!…).

Available here:

https://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/1021763/marston-s-impresses-as-pubs-remain-resilient-1021763.html?viewSource=TwitterUK

It’s shown here, in the accounts published on 16 May 2023.

https://www.marstonspubs.co.uk/docs/financials/2023/interim-results.pdf

Energy prices have decreased markedly since last summer mostly because of the drop (by more than half) of the natural gas prices since their peak. While Marston's had hedged its energy costs, the company had mentioned energy prices as a key reason why its profits would remain subdued in spite of consumers drinking again.

The drop of gas prices should lead to a much more positive tone in the next set of results.

Agreed, but those figures were priced in for 1.5 months - the SP actually tanked on the day they were published and kept going down for the next few days. It has barely recovered since then.

That suggests that the market expected better.

1- They don't look token. They are of the scale of several £10k for some of the individuals concerned.

2- High visibility: it's probably to reassure the market, but that also means that a placing (my personal concern) to reduce the debt is much less likely now. Otherwise, that would destroy the credibility of the company.

3- (More speculative) The business is still doing fine, if not even better, and all those directors have been waiting for a window when they can buy before a closed period start.

You don't understand what insider trading is:

"Insider trading is the trading of a public company's stock or other securities (such as bonds or stock options) based on material, nonpublic information about the company. In various countries, some kinds of trading based on insider information is illegal. "

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Insider_trading