FXPO's SP is clearly mostly driven by Ukraine news24 May 2023 10:11
The longer it takes to hear about a spring (that will soon become summer at this rate) offensive, the longer the SP will drift down.
For all we know, the offensive has already started but it's kept under wraps (e.g. maybe because Ukraine is actually chipping away at Russia's positions rather than doing a big counter-attack), but ultimately there are no big flashy news to raise the market's morale in the short term.