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JackRussell, doesn’t the 8th Oct 2019 rns count as commercial partnership with MSD ... it referenced specific valuation of $347.5m for each indication (whatever that is) and undisclosed tiered royalties.

We may not get that boom more a spitter upwards. The company is projected to make a loss this year (Fitch) so we may need a few months of positive updates to get to 100p+. The key figure to look out for is impairments (if they publish this figure) - has to improve below the 38% previously reported.

I’d expect a trading update by tomorrow (latest Monday) consistent with previous months. Would also expect confirmation bond settlements (sett date today) all took place successfully.

I thought it was very positive - particularly their emphasis on positive biomarkers for treating breast cancer with mx518 mono therapy. How that translates into outcomes we’ll have to wait a year or two to find out. One thing I found interesting is just how long it takes to enroll people in trials even with her the safety & regulatory hurdles being very important.

The logistics of distributing the vaccine aren’t as complex as many people seem to think. It can be stored for up to 5 days in a standard GP surgery fridge. The complexity is -70 degrees distributing to GPs and appointment scheduling to ensure delivered dose is used within the 5 days. Not insurmountable by any means.

Liro, I think you missed something - but it’s not straightforward.

4D will issue 19,783,827 new ordinary to underwrite the ADS at a ratio of 8 ordinary shares to 1 ADS. So that implies there will be about 2.47m ADS.

LOAC has 2.63m share in issue. So in the new entity each shareholder will get 2.47/2.63 new ADS for each existing LOAC share they hold = 0.94 (so effectively 0.94 ADS is equivalent 7.52 ordinary shares)

Current LOAC price = $10.93 / Fx rate = 1.316 = £8.31.
Now as above an existing LOAC share is only worth 0.94 new ADS and as such (multiply by 8) only worth 7.52 ordinary shares.
£8.31 / 7.52 = £1.105 (and voila, the closing price on this site)

Let’s hope for a positive reaction with that rns.

Well I’m expecting an RNS later this afternoon or tomorrow am. A summary shouldn’t take my time to put together following the meetings this morning.

To lose only 197m euro in the last six months is pretty exceptional. I’m not invested and have no spare cash otherwise I’d seriously consider getting in here.

It’s interesting that 90% of trades are automated. So basically, one algorithm competing against another algorithm to see which succeeds. It’s genuinely interesting but clearly not aligned to company fundamentals just chart and market direction. Rns will impact far more.

Thanks Troajan, that was a timely link as the presentation was today. An interesting watch; hope some of the analysts buy in..

Given I’m expecting revenue about $402m, operating profit $75m and profit before tax about $65m to be announced in a month I’m really surprised this hasn’t recovered a bit more so far. Especially as 2021 & 22 are looking even better (currently). MC is £207m.

Over the week they are up about 10% no?

Rob, you can forget the 110p. It was just a figure to highlight the value given to the merger to 4d shareholders relative to the price today. The key is how much of the combined equity 4d shares have (86.9%) vs LOAC (13.1%). Given the expectation of a merger their price on Nasdaq now will keep in line with our price prior (accounting for the fx rate, and that we reflect 86.9% of merged equity and they reflect 13.1%).

Post merger active trading in the US will impact the uk price as well as the other way around. But at all points, before and after the merger, our prices correlate and have nothing to do with the 110p you seen quoted today; the market price will just reflect what is our perceived value going forward. So it can go can down but personally believe it’ll go up a lot.

Trendz, I take back something I commented to you yesterday. Just listened to the vox interview and DP stated they would be talking about the results for the x518 mono therapy trial - so not just an overview of the results. So I’d expected an rns before that talk (talk is scheduled between 9th and 14th Nov I think).

By the way, there’s no reason the 110p figure has to remain the ballpark sp until the deal is done.

It is the ratio of shares that is fixed (7.5315 4D shares equivalent in ADSs for each LOAC share); the 110p figure priced into the agreement is only indicative.

So the price in London can go up on news and then the price on NASDAQ will move up based on LSE price * 7.5315 * FX RATE.

The 110p figure is no longer relevant. My view anyhow.

Ok £400k flexible mortgage at 2 or 3% that can be paid off anytime or leave your money here? Hmmm.

Maybe he just wouldn’t have been able to get the mortgage without doing this.

Trendz, whilst I share your optimism for the stock there’s no evidence really for any of your timeline expectations. 14th nov is just a forum and whilst there may be new information there is no guarantee - could well just be reiterating what we know for medical industry. No way is Blautix p3 starting this year - at most we’ll get the full ‘sliced and diced’ results for phase 2. CEO has repeatedly downplayed results for COVID this year due to competing for patients with the recovery trials so more likely to be q1.

What you say could happen; but total speculation as there is no supporting evidence.

Futures prices for jan, Feb, mar are about 20% higher than spot prices.

I guess this is why they’re trying to minimise the financing required now - going forward with possibly only 80% of notes (the rest in cash now if refinancing not taken up). I expect the interest rate is high to compensate for the likely drop in the market price after issue.

But there is a cool logic to this strategy. There is no financing for business growth at the moment (this refinancing probably won’t even get them back to pre COVID levels). I’m thinking a year from now when markets are calmer and IPF is perceived as a more stable company (moody’s etc) then there will be additional financing for growth at far better rates.