Member Info for Leisurely

Nota, you sure the current bond price is 90? The first google hit has 90 but states delayed data so price is as if 9th Sep. Another site has a significant lower up to date price from the graph but inconveniently they haven’t labelled the axis with the prices so I can only tell it’s lower (cbonds website); even then I can’t really tell if it’s an estimation.

Can someone help me with this bit ... the very last part ... is that saying $200m total over 7 years? Considering financing and tax over that period could be well over half that amount it’s not a massive amount to be distributed to shareholders ... so is the future value mostly in expansion potential ...

the maiden resource alone potentially supports a production rate of 2 million tonnes per annum for seven years for net operating cash flow of c.$70 million p.a. at current metal prices. After initial and sustaining capital expenditure of c.$222 million and c.$46 million respectively, this would indicate an estimated net cash surplus of over $200 million before financing costs and tax

Blimey, cheer up everybody lol

Results are ok, nothing really unexpected. Interesting that krg only commit to ‘review’ the delayed payments rather than actually pay them. Also can anyone clarify why it is a lengthy process to cancel the treasury shares - is it because they would have to realise the loss on these in the accounts (I see a $49m loss which I think is these later in the accounting).

Smokey, depends how the contracts are structured - maybe some committed deliveries with or without Covid. That’s why H2 results will be interesting next year.

Set of results. Nothing great but nothing bad. I think the shares will stay around their current level until annual results are released.

From the rns “ There is however material uncertainty that can cast significant doubt on the Group's ability to continue operating as a going concern” - a bit concerning.

You’re correct Miller. But I’m not clear myself really on the financial impact of exiting p&h; and the upcoming legal judgement. And how these might impact the net cash position once all resolved. Hopefully all clearer in a month or two.

Ps the current market cap is about £154m so the figure here is incorrect (there are 274m shares in issue not 115m they have here).

Trying to decide myself whether to get back in (and when)

Hi Miller. Interesting questions. The way I read it...
- £140.9m net cash (that’s £117m + £85m - £62m, the other figures here just give a breakdown)
- £2bn secured of which £0.9bn will be earned in 2021, the remainder presumably earned in later years
- Costain reports in GBP so any profit or loss from transactions abroad have to be realised in £. The Spanish asset sold for eur 4.5m - that money will have been moved to a gbp account (fx transaction) with profit/ loss in £ as specified in rns
- it’s a guess but a framework isn’t a guarantee of income ... there is a delivery over a number of years with multiple participants; the delivery evolves over that time with companies allocated work as it progresses therefore only an estimate of costain’s share is given.

Looking at the quarterly updates for q1 to q3 compared to the previous year I’ve done a back of fag packet estimate on fy20 results (to 30 Sep).

Revenue $392m (versus $343m 2019). Of this PGM $220m (versus $130m 2019); chrome $148m (versus $178m 2019); agency $24m (versus $35m). So PGM exceptionally good with chrome significantly deteriorating.

The cost base is significantly in ZAR and the year USD fx rate average is likely to be in region of 16.5 (versus 14.4 2019). This provides a cost saving that may significantly offset increased ZAR & USD costs.

Given the above I’d estimate the 2020 ‘Headline profit’ to be in region of $50m (versus $13m 2019). That’s 19 cents a share. So similar to 2018 results if you check them.

Most of the info is already available and can be interpreted from the quarterly reports and finger in the air estimates for current quarter. Be interesting to see how close I get with my Semi educated estimate.

Quite a few trades on aquis exchange today also.

If they double the number of shares for £2.5bn then there is an asset of £2.5bn attributable to all shareholders. So in theory anyhow the price should drop to half the gap between the market and discounted price. Not that iag is worth anything like it’s assets at the mo.

What’s happening tomorrow?

Gregpeck7, presumably that’s the 34640 trade at 8:07 this morning. It was traded on nexechange.com. You can see it there.

Gotta say, it’s a far more positive rns than I imagined.

Let’s hope it’s someone external to replace him.

Just on the maths. In May they produced roughly 1.12m barrels (36k a day) and got $2.1m ( the net figure) so that’s $1.75 a barrel. No payment in April on similar production. That fits with them losing money as cash on the balance sheet dropped about $20m over a bit longer than the two months. The good news is oil price only needs to be $8 or so higher average in June than May to break even. That should easily be achieved I would have thought.

Also they paid about Average £2 a share when bought back. So they swapped cash on the balance sheet for a number of shares. Since then though the share price has tanked whereas has they done nothing then all that cash would still be sitting on the balance sheet. So they buy back in retrospect was poorly timed. But easy to say in retrospect.

Login to account. You may see a corporate action where you have to print it out and sign / return before they hit your account. This is true of Barclays Stockbrokers.