Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
But why should the price increase to £2,50 or £3?
£50m profit in 2018. They haven’t grown since then. They now have to fund £33m coupon so that brings profit to £17m. Margin as you’ll see later this week is reducing which will squeeze profit more. They could grow by changing the risk profile. So I think there could be a bounce as long as their future outlook states something that addresses the growth strategy.
I wish some of you would put facts and numbers behind your share price predictions to support your argument. Doesn’t matter if you’re right or wrong but it does show you’re at least trying to think about it.
Nim will likely be lower but hopefully above 1.4% for q3 compared to 1.62% for h1 (the increased deposits will have come at a cost). This coupled with the £1.8m right down of portfolio sale may leave profits close to zero for q3. They need to give confidence the £33m for MREL bonds (which cannot be refinanced until the last year) are affordable.
Other than one poster on here who didn’t give any source is this mention in any external website / publication?
I doubt it’s true. But I did work for standard bank for a few years in London and SA. Strong management. Good ethos. Not sure it’s a fit tho.
Having a constructive debate is important. But it doesn’t help anyone to make just positive comments ; there’s factual information that is negative but no one is thanked for posting. A balanced positive with negative would help most people.
Denby, whilst the economic impact is financially greater on Europe - spread across 300m ppl it’s proportionately much less. And for each country is is far less than the impact on the uk. So they’ll accept the hit if necessary to keep the main eu principles intact.
Also worth noting that if he reaches a deal with the EU by 19th and MPs subsequently reject that deal then Boris does not have to ask for an extension and might leave with no deal on 31st. The bill that was passed only says an extension is required if he cannot deliver a deal by that date for MPs to vote on.
The share price may have dropped because shorts increased. We’ll only find that out tomorrow afternoon. But something changed, no idea myself. It dropped at 2:30 so could be in response to US downturn at that time.
To the person who says they don’t have access to go short. Just trade CFDs and use say IGs platform. It’s open to all of us if that’s what we want to do.
Cudo, just to clarify the 12 month rule only applies to the shares already purchased by the bidder in that period; any other trading doesn’t matter. See top of pg 39 in link below
‘ the offer must be for cash or accompanied by a full cash alternative at not less than the highest price paid by the offeror for target shares within the preceding 12 months.’
https://www.slaughterandmay.com/media/39320/a-guide-to-takeovers-in-the-united-kingdom.pdf
Gggg21, I think I read on one of the chats they had rung up investor relations who confirmed the original bond didn’t have anything further uptake between midday and 4pm and that is when they pulled it. I think the rns was after that. I haven’t read the prospectus fully but it may have a clause that says the placement goes ahead only if at least the full amount is subscribed to; and if more they can increase the placement. Just guessing on that last point tho.
Just something odd I noticed earlier. At 3:45 the shorts download for 2nd Oct on the FCA website had ENA position at 1.62 percent (up from 1.50 the previous day). If I look now at the download it’s 1.50 percent again (consistent with short tracker website). No idea what’s going on there. Probably a mistake but interesting to see what tomorrow’s shows.
Don’t shout at me but they will have to pay 33.25m each year for the next 6 years to cover the coupon on this bond. That’s a significant chunk of profits (at the moment anyhow). So, a relief they’ve met short term MREL so one obstacle met that should keep them going, however profits take a significant hit. If they can get out of regulatory review with a fine of 5 or 10m then at least we’ve good basis going forward.
I’m guessing there’s nothing to the bid rumours.
I’d suggest the miniscule increase in two short positions notified yesterday were to heighten negative sentiment to push down the price short term so they could then close a bigger position at a bigger profit. We’d find out if that’s right tomorrow afternoon.
I agree investor6 with your sentiment on the personal impact of sustained losses.
However it would be great if shorters could be open on this board without being shouted down. If they explained their reasons for being negative on metro then we all might learn something. We all have the option to short and we would have made a lot of money by now had we done so. But the vitriol thrown at anyone who remotely comments negatively on metro prevents us sharing knowledge (which is presumably the point of this board).
Mate, don’t just call me a toe rag lol. Please argue the point being made. I put a series of logical steps to back up the reason for a share price fall tomorrow. I don’t mind if you tell me which step is wrong in my logic ; I don’t mind if you ignore the post ; but I do mind if you attack the sender rather than the point being made. It’s not mature.
The clarity in the last paragraph is just saying they can finance MREL by the end of the year. The Fitch downgrade just means they’ll pay slightly more to do this. There is no conspiracy here; it is how financial markets work. And if they pay more to finance MREL then the profit is going to be lower than it otherwise would have been. And if profit is forecast to be lower than it would have been prior to the downgrade then the share price should drop tomorrow to reflect that (as it only really reflects the sum of all future profits). If other news pops up then the price may go up tomorrow; but based on this rns , excluding any other factors, the share price must drop
My first post - woohoo!
I’ve been following this board for 6 months and agree with everything optomdad listed.
I wanted to highlight the rns is from Metro Bank not Fitch. The only information from Fitch is the rating downgrade which will make borrowing & bond issues more expensive for Metro Bank. The rest of the info is already known information and is being reiterated by Metro Bank to give context and confidence. Several on here have been banging on about lack of context in each rns and looks like they are responding. But they can’t get away from a downgrade resulting in a downturn for the share price tomorrow (should no other info arise).