Member Info for leewill39

I agree with your thinking OKE its coming down to a Avacta vs Mologic(Aptamer) head to head. Though its slightly irrelevant if both tests are high performing as all what they can produce will be brought. I'm not sure if Aptamers can compete with Affimers, it was dismissed slightly when I shared the website update last week. Mologic though are a top class LFD company so I am expecting a very good test from them.

What I want to know is what happened to the Avacta/Mologic collaboration? It would seem on the outside a match made in heaven. I can only think it was a clash of values, Mologic done seem to care about making a profit and derive a lot of their funding from the Gates Foundation to develop tests for the developing world. Avacta has shareholders to consider.

https://avacta.com/avacta-and-mologic-enter-research-and-product-development-collaboration-agreement/

https://twitter.com/alanmcn1/status/1335882684523044864

Daily UoB LFD testing update. 3791 tests performed, 2 positive (Ct values ~20 and 24). 450 samples randomly chosen for confirmatory PCR, 2 LFD false negatives by PCR (Ct values ~ 29 and 34)

Oh look wide spread and HL taking everything again this morning.

More big buying in the background I suspect.

Morning Everyone.

Had all the confirmation I need this morning that’s it’s going to be a good week:)

Totally relaxed.

It’s not unreasonable to think the total market opportunity for pro drugs could be in ex excess of 100bn. If safety profile and tolerability is massively increased, no of cycles of treatment possible and patients eligible will increases substantially.

It’s easy to see why Avacta focussed its limited resources at the time on AVA6000 as the opportunity looks enormous. Of course we need positive human data but the animal data looks fantastic to say the least. Oh and don’t get me started on TMAC:)

Yes next generation stem cell therapies which secrete affimers to help recruit the immune system. Affimers are far easier for stem cell or dna for that matter to produce than antibodies, this seems to be an area which affimers can really excel in.

As for the fund raise, Big Al has already stated they are not putting cash into the JV as it’s not practical for Avacta. However that was said before massive revenues were potentially coming from covid test sales, so perhaps if Affyxell needs some cash Avacta will look to invest.

Not sure about milestone payments nothing been mentioned to date.

I’m also very excited about the Affyxell JV, which Avacta own 45% of course.

We may see a fund raise from them in 2021 so we can get a clearer picture of the potential value of this business, could be a lot more than most are expecting.

It also reassures me that our 2 biggest partnership are with South Korean companies. They are an extremely ambitious and hard working nation with world class companies. Big Al has already hinted that Daewoong are pushing very Avacta hard to make progress quickly. 2021 is looking very exciting for Avacta.

Cant really comment on tests for Cancer though i do believe Avacta are targeting another massive opportunity in their diagnostics division, namely antimicrobial resistance. David Wilson mentioned it several times during the lab roots webinar.

This potentially is a huge market, article in the times earlier in the week headed - We must act now to tackle antimicrobial resistance — the next global health threat.

Naturally the focus is on Covid at present but there are other huge markets for the diagnostics division to go after.

I really hope I haven’t started an ODX vs AVCT debate because that was certainly not my intention.

Just a few thoughts on Antibody testing using LFD’s that’s all.

Regarding TT and Avacta I’m not sure any of us know what truly is going on behind the scenes. For all we know it’s done and BBI are churning them out in their millions already. Large scale capacity may also have been secured in the Far East as hinted by Big Al, we just don’t know. I can’t believe for one second though that in this quiet period extra capacity has not been secured, whether that be uk or overseas. The silence for me whilst frustrating also points to a lot of confidence and a lot going on behind the scenes.........time will tell though:)

I agree that would make perfect sense, though I suspect the UK LFD manufacturers will be on antigen tests a bit longer than the spring. The government can’t afford another lockdown so will want to drive cases down to as low as possible. It looks doubtful at the moment that the vaccines prevent transmission.

Morning everyone.

Popped over to the ODX this morning and noticed a few people getting concerned about a tender for a possible laboratory antibody test.

One thing I’ve never understood is why would the government order LFD antibody tests from UK companies when the capacity is desperately needed for antigen testing. The antibody test can be done in a lab as it’s not critical to get a fast result, unlike an antigen LFD test where your trying to break chains of transmission. Surly the government should procuring all the UK LFD capacity for antigen testing. Maybe I’m missing something.

He’s right it’s not practical or cost effective to screen the population with a test that is so expensive and over sensitive. Far. better to use a high quality LFD and confirm the positives with PCR or preferably Bams:)

Everybody complains about the cost of moonshot but getting 90% negative rate with PCR is not value for money. You can probably do 10 LFD tests for 1 PCR and you get instant results breaking chains of transmission. You also don’t get the issue of the long tail. Let’s face it if you tested the whole population tomorrow with PCR you would probably have millions in isolation as it picks up dead virus particles.......what’s the cost to the economy of all those false positives??

Of course it does require a high performing LFT.......anyone know of one?

We may also get news of the expanded inhouse therapeutic pipeline as it was one of the uses of proceeds from the raise. Big Al said he was hopeful to update us on this by the end of the year or possibly early 2021 at the September presentation.

I'm really hopeful we can get some human data from the affimer platform in 2021 as well as the precision data from AVA6000. I don't want a takeover until we have proved up both platforms as it could cause a bidding war with the majors if both are successful imo.

That’s interesting JSP.

We will find out shortly I suspect.

At last a bit of positivity coming out of Brum uni for LFT’s.

Whilst I understand Jon Deeks concerns about LFT,s he does seem to have tunnel vision for PCR and nothing else.

Maybe he’s got a few Novacyt shares and is concerned for his investment:)

It’s certainly been stressful holding Avacta the past 3 months. I’ve taken a lot of positivity from the recent share price action but the silence is difficult to bear at times.

I’ve been here since 50p so still siting in a decent profit, but boy do I wish I top sliced and took a bit off the table. Looking back it was fairly obvious from the lab roots webinar with David Wilson that we are looking at 2021 launch. I always said I would stay in until the RNS launching the LFT or that he had failed, if I lose my gains so be it. I imagine if your in north of the current price the silence must be unbearable. Anytime I’m concerned I just go back over my research and always feel massively reassured. I feel Avacta have got this under control.

Thanks Crocqman.

So in theory if the rules were followed and a fund was building this week a declaration should be announced next week.
Just seems a bit odd that the 120p was placing was rumoured to be 3 times oversubscribed and no one has taken advantage of the recent weakness. That being said the action looked very different this week to the past few. I was hopeful of Conifer increasing as that would be a big endorsement for me.

Thanks Reckoner that’s really helpful.

I’m convinced someone has been buying in the background this week and was just wondering if there was any mechanisms for avoiding declaration. I was thinking Conifer being a US fund may have some loopholes to use.

Can anyone confirm at what levels does a shareholder have to declare to the markets regarding their holdings. Been looking into it but there seems to be some conflicting info about it.

For example Conifer fund are currently listed on Avacta’s website as having a 3.32% At what percentage would they have to inform the markets about a change? Am I right in thinking it’s for every 1% change?

Also does it make any difference if the shareholder is a uk fund or and international one?

Any help would be greatly appreciated:)

Its their rapid saliva protein test which is an antibody test in all but name.

I do however believe that a lot of Medusa's activity is about preparing the ground for the Avacta test. My thoughts are that we are far too focussed on a government order and that the direct to business and consumer market is where the serious money will be made. We many not like how Richard and Hughes and the Kamani's go about the their business, but you cant deny they know how to run an e-commerce platform. When the Avacta test is ready, Medusa will be ready to sell it in massive volumes. I'm also not ruling out them shifting some of their manufacturing capacity in the Wirrrel over to Avacta.