RE: Erdogan Ready To Take Initiative on Ukraine28 Apr 2022 19:44
Evening Matchu,
Ordinarily I would agree with you but I personally think Erdogan will be the one to bring Putin to his senses (and Zelenski). Negotiations are never one sided and are all about win-win for both sides needing to get something out of the negotiations and similarly you have to be prepared to walk away from the table if it doesn't suit. VP may wish to threaten or intimidate Ukraine to try and get his way but there are 2 sides and it is clear that Ukraine are not going to roll over and simply accept "Putin's / Russia's demands". That's what they were referenced as. It's clear from Zelenski positioning on lack of sight of these proposals / demands that they do not suit. Hence we have continued fighting and impasse.
Thereafter you need a mediator (Erdogan) and or a new set of ideas or perspective to break any deadlock. Erdogan himself claims he has a proposal and seems confident of getting matters over the line.
Recapping, after Istanbul there was general agreement on 5 out of 6 points and the big gain for Russia was Non-nato security guarantees. Last point to settle was on the Donbas and Crimea.
You have to appreciate though that if there is No Peace treaty, Russia gets nothing and Ukraine are at liberty to do as it pleases.
Despite all the sabre rattling and bluster, that mediator might be the one to point out that you might fight for another 3, 6, 12 for little or no additional territorial gain and to point out:
* Russia has unprecedented sanctions against it.
* Oligarchs have unprecedented sanctions against them.
* Moves now afoot to change legislation to enable any seized foreign currency reserves and other monies to be used for reparations / funding Ukraine etc (Canada)
* Bucha and the civilian casualty atrocities has only served as an own goal with Finland, Sweden, Bosnia and Kosovo all now wanting to join Nato. (Shot self in the foot) Any surprise that Jens Stoltenburg only today pops up to say "we would welcome both with open arms should they wish to join Nato"
* United Europe. (almost - Hungary?)
* Looks like they have sufficient gas reserves to suffice through spring and summer and to enable the search for alternative sources.
* Nato parked on Russia's border now with added staffing and weaponry.
* International Condemnation.
* UN exclusion.
* Diplomatic expulsions. So many that the FSB will probably end up playing Eye Spy in their offices in Moscow)
* Western Countries pulling the plug on Russian operations and the unemployment that accompanies it.
* Sovereign debt default imminent.
* Inflationary pressures and severe risk of recession to the Russian economy.
* 40 Nations as of only 2 days ago all pumping weapons into Ukraine. $33Billion is a lot more.
* Unprecedented personnel and military hardware losses thus far (new reports saying 25,000+) and more to come imho
* Military and supply targets within Russia - now legitimate targets also, now taking the fight and "visibly" across the bor