Member Info for latpulldown

BTFath1

Nice update from premier and it just goes to show what happens when shares are undervalued. Nice merger and financial reorganisation also and creating a large producing company with 250k bopd.

Total are prepared to pay $575 Million for the Ugandan assets. They can have the full of Tullow Oil right now for about half that price and can have all the other assets thrown in fro free.

"The Group has interests in over 70 exploration and production licences across 15 countries."

It is $575 Million pounds munch. $500Mill + another $75 Mill on FID.

If you read the post today on the Total tender that was kindly popped on the bulletin board earlier you might twig that they need to have sealed on the Tullow deal first.

Basics...

Thanks for posting this information Borismoose.

I noted this line in particular

"The Group has interests in over 70 exploration and production licences across 15 countries."

Yet the market capitalisation for the Tullow Oil in full is only £212 Million pounds

Sale of the Ugandan assets alone will realise $500M + $75M. That is for only 1 of those assets

So undervalued at the moment, although it looks like the tide is starting to turn again

It should readily return to £4.00 and where it was before you would think as I have struggled to find a reason for its fall from there and the Board of Directors have said as much and backed that up with numeorus share purchases.

Its a good company operating in good growth markets including the Middle East.

I thought I had missed the boat when it listed in 2019 at 435p but have been a happy purchaser at about half that price and will look to hold longer term for it hopefully to regain its previous value.

Up nearly $2 will do just fine

Whilst we wait for imminent RBL news
and
Conclusion of the Ugandan assets sale, which by the recent actions of Total makes it look a a certainty. $500 Million to come our way on completion and a further $75 million on FID.

It must be that Donald Trump in the Beast effect. How many gallons to the mile does that automobile do.

Its a strange world we live in where the price of oil isn't actually decided by demand and supply but speculation. Expecting a full recovery in its price in what was a non event.

We get $57 per barrel on 60% of our production in any case.

With the greatest respect Tony the price of oil; has nothing to do with China and it being on Moon Festival holidays. it is all about speculators and futures contracts, the most of which never get completed or fulfilled. We saw that on Friday when Donuld Trump having Coronavirus knocked the price. Well his interview seems to be saying he is doing just fine. That event in its own right has not one iota of influence on the consumption of oil.

Lets see how we get on with the semi-annual RBL debt capacity redetermination which is expected to complete in early October 2020.

Can't be far off.

Reference RBL

"“Semi-annual RBL debt capacity redetermination expected to complete in early October 2020; at Tullow's request, the next redetermination will be in January 2021 following the CMD later this year to incorporate the outcome of revised business plans”

Not sure though it will be Monday but will happily be corrected. Its close though, that's for sure.

I see it going lower as you have a 1.5 BILLION share overhang now to negotiate around.

Successful planning will only mean another more substantial next placing.

Best of luck

Disappointed to see another placing placing and that is yet another Billion and a half shares that need to be filtered and churned through the market. Some being done as we speak by the looks of the volume. I had been optimistic for the run in to the Loxley Planning meeting but this has killed the mood. These placings take time to agree, document and get the legals done and imo it was known about from the retrace at 25p. Institutions get to know. PI's don't.

Sadly Stephen Sanderson knows no bounds when it comes to shareholder dilution and the destruction of the share price.

Still pumping roughly 77,000 bopd out the ground (as we were when it was 23p two / three weeks ago)
Still getting $57 per barrel hedged on 60% production (as we were when it was 23p two / three weeks ago)
Ugandan assets sale still on as it also was two / three weeks ago. Only closer to completeion now.

If the market wishes to knock the share price on the news that Donald Trump and wifey have Covid19, and what is essentially a non story for TLW and the price of oil - then I'll happily pick up some more and just have.

Good luck with your own decisions.

Being brandished about are simply pie in the sky.

Tullow Oil is still pumping about 77,000 bopd of oil out the ground per day. Same as it was 2 weeks / 3 weeks ago (at 23p)
60% of that achieving $57 per barrel (Name me another that achieves that btw) Same as it was 2 weeks / 3 weeks ago (at 23p)
Ugandan asset sale for $575 Million still on, and 2 / 3 weeks closer than it also was at 23p.

If the market wishes to knock the share price this morning off PoTUS and wifey getting Covid19 (and what is a non story for Tullow) then I will happily pick up a few more and just have.

Full company Market Cap was about £190 Million this a.m..

$575 Million just about to come our way from the sale of the Ugandan assets.

It must be Total ly tempting.

We get $57 per barrel on 60% of our production.

It takes more than 1 days move in the oil price to work out Quarterly earnings.

Just a handy thing to remember.

In mathematics if the oil price falls 5% then you could in theory argue that it should lead to a 5% fall in the share price of an oil company, as has been done today.

There are three major flaws though with that logic.

1. Because Tullow have a shrewd hedge running against any oil price volatility and whereby they get $57 per each barrel produced on 60% of their production, they are guaranteed that money come what may with the oil price. That should limit and cancel out most of any percentage fall.
2. Secondly it is the average price over the quarter that dictates quarterly earnings - not simply 1 day.
3. On the same basis, if the oil price rises again then it should similarly lead to the same percentage rise in the Tullow share price.

yonch20,

I wouldn't try to make any sense in the drop in the share price as it is nonsensical. Because the price of a barrel of Brent is sat at roughly twice what it was as the pandemic took hold and even with a re-based dividend the yield is looking very good for income seekers again.

It could just as easily be sat at £3.00 per share right now which is why I keep adding. RDSB has the same appeal.

Next update in less than a month away and ex dividend about a week after that. 27th October and 5th November respectively/ Given the consistently higher average price of a barrel of oil it should be an easy prediction of numbers bettering last time.

https://www.bp.com/en/global/corporate/investors/information-for-shareholders/financial-calendar.html

darren123

If they buy TLW tomorrow then they theoretically only have to pay the market cap which is £225 to £230 Million pounds. They don't have to add the debt levels on top for the purchase price. They inherit that but that is also along with any accrued losses the company has which can be offset against future profits.

So the asking price at the moment is only £230 Million. Theyw ill of course have to pay substantially more than that.

That is about half the $500M + $75M to come from the Ugandan asset sale completing and another $500Mill of assets being targetted for sale. If they conclude both then they will be sat on £1 Billion pounds cash on the balance sheet and be valued at only £225M to £300M.

Absolutely crazy !! 77,000 barrels of oil being pumped out the ground daily also, 60% of which is achieving $57 per barrel.

You hand your shares over to the market makers if you wish or alternatively open up an almighty short position. Its your barbecue.

Someone imo has been manipulating the price to gain stock ahead of the next up Surrey County Planning Committee meeting.

Modest holding but might increase myself substantially prior to the date and if it is confirmed as going ahead.

By that time we may have a a better indication of where our manipulator intends taking the share price.

I am not forgetting the debt at all and all companies have it. Check out Royal Dutch Shell and BP's debt levels.

The point I am making is that Total rather than paying $575 Million for the Ugandan assets can have the Ugandan assets and the full company right and still have circa £300 Million left in their back pocket.That is how ridiculously cheap TLW is right now.

You do also realise there is another $500 Million being targetted off asset sales which makes a market cap of £225 Million simply crazy.

That is not just for Total but for any others spying a 77,000 bopd acquisition and the other assets as well.