Member Info for latpulldown

missilee.

TLW has its fair share of shorters and the last few weeks several have been trying cast aspertions on this deal completing, hence the price is deeply oversold compared to its assets and no more evident than a market cap of £224 Million when just one of its assets sold is just about to raise about twice its own market cap. $575 Million.

"An extract from an interview with Total's Ugandan General Manager that has just been released.

On the Tullow transaction, basically, all hurdles have been overcome and should only be a matter of days or weeks to closing of the deal.

https://www.theeastafrican.co.ke/tea/business/pierre-jessua-much-to-do-before-uganda-first-oil-flows-in-2024-2483176 "

About 30p to 40p my guess

All companies have debt and that is how they grow the business and if you regularly read company accounts then you know going concern statements are attached to all accounts.

BP for instance has upwards of £40 Billion pounds worth of debt. Cineworld, the cinema operator with a collection of cinemas and that right now is closed for business has about £3 Billion worth of debt after expanding and acquiring Regal cinemas in the US.

It is not the size of the debt that matters but the ability to service that. Through a shrewd hedge we are achieving approximately $50 per barrel for our oil. Thats on 75,000 barrels per day daily.

The item you should have drawn attention to is the more recent RBL redetermination where they were subjected to debt test and passed with flying colours. It was RNS 's only a week or so ago. Next re-determination is in January at Tullows request and they will pass that with even more brighter and vivid flying colours as they will be able to knock $575 Million off that and hopefully another $500 million through other asset sales.

The situation that you have here is ludicrously oversold.

Tullow's market cap is only £224 Million pounds right now. (try the Fundamentals tab above )

As of this most recent article everyone is talking about, it is imminently going to conclude the sale of its Ugandan assets to Total for $575 Million. All hurdles have been over come and it is a matter of days / weeks away.

So for the sale of 1 asset it will actually receive about twice the money in cash it is valued at.

As a going concern business it also has interests in a further 69 other licences in 15 countries and daily produces 75,000 barrels per day. (75,000 x 365 days per year x $50 per barrel )

If it isn't presently valued at 1/2 of the value of 1 licence interest and there is all the rest on top that says grossly oversold.

Thanks though for highlighting going concern for it has enabled me to highlight what Tullow as a going concern business actually comprises of.

It could easily double and imo it would still not reflect its true going concern value.

Good luck for tomorrow as I think you might need it as the first hour might be a bit frantic.

Not getting into a debate DD with a party with no share interest in Tullow. You bet against things whilst I and I think a whole lot of others now will be invested or getting invested sharpish.

The new CEO is has made a good start and seems intent on turning things around: RBL just passed, sufficient headroom, Ugandan sale proceeds ($575 Million) now inbound imminently, Q3 update to come, Capital Markets Day for the future roadmap to maximise value to come...

Anybody getting nervy and parked up thinking the Ugandan deal might not happen now has their answer and it doesn't come much better than straight from the horses mouth of the Total Uganda General Manager, Pierre Jessua.

There is no point in posting and wasting your time here if you have no share interest and all can either debate things all day with what is essentially a bunch of anonymous posters or alternatively they can simply read the article for themselves and make their own minds up.

Its the latter for me and time for a nice Sunday lunch.

All hurdles overcome and it should only be a matter of days or weeks to closing the deal is what it is saying.

https://www.theeastafrican.co.ke/tea/business/pierre-jessua-much-to-do-before-uganda-first-oil-flows-in-2024-2483176 "

Filtered by the way.

-they have only just passed their RBL banking test and have $500M headroom before this sale. dyor

- are producing daily about 75,000 bopd. 60% of which is hedged at $57 per barrel. Genius. dyor

-their should be a quarterly Trading update coming along about the 7th - 14th November where the spot price for oil achieved for the other 40% is nearly double Q2 lows. dyor

- Tullows new CEO has a review of all the companies interests presently ongoing with a view to maximising their potential and his master plan is due to be unveiled at a Capital Markets Day on 25th November. dyor.

Cor blimey guvnor we might actually even see some investors hopping on board for a rerated share price and good run up to the year end.

It tells us lots boix.

You seem to be light in your Tullow stock, Dubaidave clearly has a short position and we can play a game today of spotting which camp posters fall into.

present holders (self)
those parked up and light of stock
those with short positions.

When I was talking about short positions closing up what I was talking about are the retail spread betters and those with less than 0.5% interests that purposefully escape the radar, and the likes of those in China who get fined for hiding 16.9% short interests in companies like PMO. dyor.

The article tells us that all hurdles have been overcome and that is from the other side of teh transaction.

That is a whole lot of new information. No hold ups on the Ugandan government side. Tullow intent on completing...

laidback the comments off the Total Uganda General Manager are as good it gets and they quite clearly tell us that, from the other side of the bargain, that our $575 Million deal is imminently going to complete "in a matter of days or weeks".

If I am not mistaken the 23rd October is the date all were working to so it looks feasible that it could complete on time. If we get another week or two price build up and FOMO on top then I will not be complaining. Not expecting an RNS Monday but its coming.

The present market cap of Tullow is only £224 Million and it is just about to realise nearly twice with a sale price of $575 Million from just that 1 asset sale.

You do realise that they have interests in circa 70 exploration licences in 15 countries.

Open at 19p and then a Fomo build up into the 23rd October would be my guess where I will be surprised if we are not comfortably into the 30p's by the end of the week.

Sorry for the typing errors

"3. Because the news has hit over the weekend which gives it plenty of time to resonate itself around other bulletin boards and then as we all know FOMO sets in.

This article Davstock is is the creme in terms of news on any bulletin board this weekend and you can spot a mile away those who are either light on Tullow shares or hold short positions or are desperately trying to buy themselves just a couple of seconds delay on Monday morning to change that.

I think we are in for a very good week next week and starting right from the opening gun on Monday. Why?

1. Because those who had recently sold, been sidelined or had otherwise been holding back for a sign will now pile in and big. Some may even kitchen sink it for the rises over those "days and weeks" It looks like the 23rd might come close to being the date after all.

2. Because if you hold a short position on a spreadbet then there is only one thing you should be doing Monday morning and that is closing your position promptly. Otherwise you will be facing some hefty margin calls in your account.

3. Because the news has hit over the weekend whic gives it plenty of time to reonate itself around other bulletin boards and then as we all know FOMO sets in.

"An extract from an interview with Total's Ugandan General Manager that has just been released.

On the Tullow transaction, basically, all hurdles have been overcome and should only be a matter of days or weeks to closing of the deal.

https://www.theeastafrican.co.ke/tea/business/pierre-jessua-much-to-do-before-uganda-first-oil-flows-in-2024-2483176 "

Thanks for that Davstock. Its made my weekend and probably all of next week. Tullow with an extra $575 Million in the bank you would think should find itself back towards 30p.

That's a good find that article Tornadotony for if the Ugandans are having to publicly come out and account for time delays then you would think that President Museveni will be instructing key ministers to get things speeded up and moving. It points the finger at one set of parties and does not reflect well on the country itself.

In the meantime we keep producing circa 75,000 bopd at a hedged average of about $50 per barrel and have interests in 70 other licences in 15 countries.

And if a might add, all presently valued at less than what Total are going to pay us for that 1 Ugandan asset.

It was PMO but it just goes to show what goes on. They hid a 16.9% short position but it caught up with them in the end.

https://www.investmentweek.co.uk/news/4021667/fca-fines-investment-house-premier-oil-short-disclosure

toofache,

Can you just enlighten us as to what qualifications you have to even attempt to put out such cloud cuckoo land and ridiculous numbers.

Tullow passed the RBL and have $500M of headroom which they are stating is sufficient for their requirements (read the RNS) and they also make helathy profit on all barrels being sold at circa $50 per barrel, that being an average of the hedged price and spot price they receive for their oil.

You wouldn't happen to be a disciple or graduate of the BAT Institute (British American Tobacco) or was it the school of Benson and Hedges or possibly some other back of fag packet establishment. I think the giveaway is that there is no accompanying working out and it nearly all squeezed into 1 line.

TLW is in much better shape now than when it was 30p and when the oil price was recovering from roughly $20 dollars a barrel.

Capital Markets Day coming up, Ugandan asset sale or maybe even a sale of any of the other $500M worth of assets that are being targetted for sale, will reinvigorate sentiment.

Today the MM's were playing games with the share price as they were restricting buying at many lower points of the day and wouldn't quote for any decent amounts. the Exchange market size was only about 20,000 and that was only if they eventually entertained your order and let you buy. Other oil stocks also as it happens fell nowhere near TLW's percentage.

Doing my bit for the local inn and ale hostelry tonight just to keep them ticking over. Tullow will still be here tomorrow, next week and next year. That's not a bad idea for all.

I am not bothered will to be honest because I know it is deeply undervalued.

I've said it before Total might just come along and instead of snapping up the Ugandan assets can pick up the whole company and have change left over.

Its a pretty good way to add 75,000 bopd per day to your assets plus all the rest and you will get the new CEO's plan to further maximise assets unveiled at the Capital Markets Day.

I go with my own assessment and it normally serves me well.

75,000 bopd x 365 days in a year x $50 per barrel = ?

A lot of money

Interests in 70 exploration licences in 15 countries.

One just about to sell fro $575 Mill

Market cap. £230 Million

Pretty amazing really but thats the MM's for you.

will,

Theres $575 Million coming our way when Uganda completes.

Market cap is only £230 Million.

Uganda out the way and money banked that leaves a company producing circa 75,000 bopd at about $50 per barrel average at the moment

and

Interests in another 69 licences in 14 countries

Not costing an awful lot of money.

Behind it all though there is a company with good assets and managing to sell 60% of what it produces at $57 per barrel.

That plus a Uganda sale ongoing and interests in over 70 exploration and production licences across 15 countries.

Just remind me of the present market cap for all of this ?

N_I,

If you can find any reason at all for the last few days fall then good luck.

Tullow is in the clear with the RBL, Ugandan asset sale shouldn't be too far away and they are pumping about 75,000 barrels per day out of the ground and Tullow is achieving $57 per barrel on 60% of that production and incidentally the other 40% is presently selling for over $40 per barrel and has been for most of this quarter. That is about twice March pandemic hysteria levels.

There are not many out there that even come close to $57 per barrel and the revenues that brings but yet the market wishes the Tullow share price to be where it was with previous $20 oil prices.

I must admit that I think there is some terrific value out there right now in oil stocks and have been following my own reasoning and beliefs and have topped up on several oil stocks including Tullow today. BP and RDS report Q3 numbers on the 29th October when hopefully higher spot prices will translate through followed by market sentiment.

All the best.

Not a bad position to be in.

"Our two business segments are the Middle East and Africa:

Our largest segment by revenue is the Middle East, which represented 73% of total revenue in 2019. Key markets include the United Arab Emirates and Jordan. We have recently entered Saudi Arabia, a market that offers significant opportunities for growth.
We provide services in more than 40 countries in Africa, which represented 27% of total revenue in 2019. Key markets include Egypt, Nigeria and South Africa."

Too low.

Not much more to say on the subject.

That's the oil price that should be the wider barometer by the way. It is still holding steadily above $40 per barrel and at £43 per barrel for Brent crude and that ultimately decides margin, profitability and dividend cover which I have as easily safe this quarter.

In a pure guessing game I have it that its the market makers that are playing with and shorting their own oil stocks which they can do. They will be accumulated closed and cash made prior to Q3 update.

Its just a question of when for a bulk investment and holding for the dividend and what should be a near 8% dividend yield.

That ultimately is the barometer and BP are world players.

Getting tempted again for some RDSB also.