Member Info for latpulldown

Good start.
Don't forget that the next reopenings (and backed by further vaccine rollout) should be permanent.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9260159/High-Street-shops-set-reopen-WEEKS-Covid-19-infection-rates-plummeting.html

Just following on from my point and maths yesterday. Han**** has now changed his tune from his May statements of Friday and the weekend and the Govt are now aiming to have 32 million vaccinated by April.

As stated last night by the actual 15th Feb stats (put out on the16th Feb) we should be not far off 16 Million already vaccinated and half way there.

Anyway I will stick with my maths as it has been doing me just fine and at the time I talked about planting acorns, some of those were in Retail which I spied as one of the early Unlocks.

Things being moved forward by say a month will be to the benefit of all, including cinemas.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9260159/High-Street-shops-set-reopen-WEEKS-Covid-19-infection-rates-plummeting.html

I'll bet you time your exit too early though..

Non essential shops will reopen in March. Happy to have nailed my flag tp the pole on that and it has been my prediction all along and having watched the data assidiously and day by day. Schools will return on the 8th March then factor in say two weeks to evaluate any such effects and with vaccines still being rolled out. Then shops next.

FunInvestor, that is not an easy find but I distinctly remember seeing it somewhere and possibly where the next cohorts of 5 to 8 were broken down and mentioned.

FYI there are actually only 16.3 Million in the next 4 age cohorts down to the over 50's.

The breakdown is as follows

Over 65 = 3.4 Million
Over 60 = 3.8 Million
Over 55 = 4.4 Million
Over 50 = 4.7 Million

Note the current vaccination rate is 500k per day.
That would suggest a further 33 days days from now. (Just over 1 month)
Drop it to 350k per day which would be a reasonable average given daily jabbings and that would equate to a further 46.5 days from now (Just over 6 weeks)

Just one further addirional fact for you is that the first 4 cohorts when you add them all up collectively only equated to 13.2 Million jabs required, and we are already over that having vaccinated 15 Million already.

It is of course all vaccine dependant.

Bearing in mind the figures we actually get published are actually time lag behind by one day then technically to get the true vaccination figure as of the 15th February, this you will get at 4p.m. on the 16th Feb. So add two more days worth and imho between 700k to 1M more jabs for those 2 days.

Once I get some time I'll search out and find the link but as you can see even from just simple data it is achievable.

The Vaccine Delivery Plan had the next 5 cohorts, so all the over 50's and clinically vulnerable, penciled in for vaccinated by the End of March. Matt Han**** last night seemed to be intimating by May time. This was a Minister who was also advocating 10 years in prison for visiting a red country and failing to disclose when you don't even get that for Manslaughter in this country. Please don't put this guy in charge of numbers and Finance. Do he honestly think people don't remember these things when they are in print.

I'm sticking with my forecast.
Schools 8th March return
Non-Essential Retail - 2 weeks later all being well and having had time to digest the impact of schools returning on the infection rate and with vaccines still being rolled out. So Mid to late March
Same logic with the follow on stages with delays built in to evaluate.
Al Fresco Pubs - open in time for Easter.
Indoor pubs and leisure - End April, Start of May.

UK is going exactly to plan.
How are we faring in the US?

Its nice to see that the "you'll have to wait to the 22nd" of last week has now changed to leak after leak about what will now be in the Roadmap and on the Unlocking.

From Todays Covid19 stats.

Another 1/2 M vaccines jabbed out and over the 15 Million we go, with in theory one more days numbers to go for the 15th Feb.

New infection rate - is showing a significant fall. Just over 10k now.
Hospitalisations down again.

Deaths at only 258. (Reduction of 400+ on yesterday)

Its weekend numbers but still following and contributing to a further downtrend.

https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/

Another 1/2 M vaccines jabbed out and over the 15 Million we go, with in theory one more days numbers to go for the 15th Feb.

New infection rate - is showing a significant fall. Just over 10k now.
Hospitalisations down again.

Deaths at only 258. (Reduction of 400+ on yesterday)

Its weekend numbers but still following and contributing to a further downtrend.

https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/

I can understand the need for a cautious approach and not wishing to be a reverse ferret

BUT

*you established a Vaccines Delivery Plan that was based on science.
* It is clearly now working
* And should continue to do so - even moreso as more and more vaccines are delivered and the Top 9 tiers are effectively taken out of the mortality / death rate. We know there is another 5 tiers to impact further and combined with the enhanced immunity of the 2nd jab.
* There shouldn't be any doubt that you believe in your own delivery plan.
* Far easier just to get an Army commander to make the decisions and stick with the plan.

Bring on the uneasy questions and the Unlock lobby to raise their profile this week.

Its no wonder the PM is getting optimistic. Vaccination effects now shining through imho.

Infection rates down on yesterday
Hospitalisation rates down on yesterday
Vaccinations up another 1/2 Million plus and the Top 4 cohort numbers should be easily surpassed.

Deaths - its another 600 number with 621 reported (against 758 yesterday and 1820 peak)

These numbers relate to Friday and not the weekend

https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/

Its no wonder the PM is getting optimistic. Vaccination effects now shining through imho.

Infection rates down on yesterday
Hospitalisation rates down on yesterday
Vaccinations up another 1/2 Million plus and the Top 4 cohort numbers should be easily surpassed.

Deaths - its another 600 number with 621 reported (against 758 yesterday and 1820 peak)

These numbers relate to Friday and not the weekend

https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9256565/Hopes-rise-end-lockdown-Covid-hospitalisations-fall-FASTER-expected.html

Mention of "Non-essential retail being up there for reopening.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9256565/Hopes-rise-end-lockdown-Covid-hospitalisations-fall-FASTER-expected.html

Lets see if we get to an Easter Unlock (or before) Things seem to be pointing that way. I think mid to late March myself.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9256565/Hopes-rise-end-lockdown-Covid-hospitalisations-fall-FASTER-expected.html

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9256627/Covid-deaths-85s-plummet-41-week-thanks-vaccine.html

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9256565/Hopes-rise-end-lockdown-Covid-hospitalisations-fall-FASTER-expected.html

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9256627/Covid-deaths-85s-plummet-41-week-thanks-vaccine.html

Lets see what Government Minister can put their foot in it this week.

They have only gone and done another 500k vaccinations in one day. 14,012,224 vaccinated.

Infection rate marginally up
Hospitalisations marginally up

Death rate at 758 in what is another really good day. Yesterday was 678. The peak was 1820. I'll stick with vaccinations beginning to now show through.

https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/

They have only gone and done another 500k vaccinations in one day. 14,012,224 vaccinated.

Infection rate marginally up
Hospitalisations marginally up

Death rate at 758 in what is another really good day. Yesterday was 678. The peak was 1820.

I'll stick with vaccinations beginning to now show through.

https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/

They have only gone and done another 500k vaccinations in one day. 14,012,224 vaccinated.

Infection rate marginally up
Hospitalisations marginally up

Death rate at 758 in what is another really good day (if you can call it that).

I'll stick with vaccinations beginning to now show through.

https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/