Member Info for latpulldown

We are Ok at 75%. Now where did I see or hear that!!

It's flawed rationale that you make.

The focus should not be solely on the US but on the full groups performance. That's in the Uk and Ireland, US and RoW and don't forget to add improved concession sales, advertising revenues, online booking fees etc to complete the full revenue equation.

Cheers

My apologies for missing The Last Duel off the list. Revised list

F9 through to Bond (13 weeks)

25th June – Fast and Furious 9 (USA)
9th July 2021 – Black Widow
16th July 2021 – The Croods 2 – a New Age
30th July 2021 – Jungle Cruise
30th July 21 – The Suicide Squad
13th August 2021 – Free Guy
27th August 2021 – Candyman
3rd September 2021 – Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings (Disney)
(I also saw Nobody in there)

Bond through to November 5th (Only 5 Weeks)

30th September 2021 – No Time To Die UK. 8th October US.
1st October 21: The Many Saints of Newark
1st October 2021 – Venom, Carnage US. 15th October UK release
15th October 21 – Halloween Kills
15th October 21: The Last Duel
21 October 21: Dune
22nd October 21: The French Despatch
22nd October 2021 – Last Night In Soho
22nd October 2021 – Boss Baby 2: Family Business (UK)
5th November 2021 – Eternals

(House of Gucci fyi is 26th November and outwith this 5 week period. It gets released after Ghostbuster Afterlife (19th November) another good film.

October will be BY FAR our best month (or 5 weeks) and December with Spiderman No Way Home, Spielberg's Westside Story, The Kings Man and Matrix 4 all released has the potential to surpass further.

Seems like time to have glass of Scotch and to bid you Good Night.

Mastertrading, my background is university and postgraduate educated in business related subjects and have been investing for 30 years plus. Thereafter I merely posses the ability and attention to detail to research further and understand the things that others might shy away from and which are relevant to my investments. Complex legal stuff I like to understand. The AB Stable case fyi was actually referred to in the opening remarks by Mr Steep. That is the only hook required to research and find legal and summary interpretations of the judgement.

I suspect you might hear it again in the closing remarks.

Not saying for one minute that this guarantees CINE success, but you will agree with me, that it may be highly relevant.

Judge ultimately decides.

Here's the breakdown.

F9 through to Bond

25th June – Fast and Furious 9 (USA)
9th July 2021 – Black Widow
16th July 2021 – The Croods 2 – a New Age
30th July 2021 – Jungle Cruise
30th July 21 – The Suicide Squad
13th August 2021 – Free Guy
27th August 2021 – Candyman
3rd September 2021 – Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings (Disney)

Bond through to November 5th

30th September 2021 – No Time To Die UK. 8th October US.
1st October 21: The Many Saints of Newark
1st October 2021 – Venom, Carnage US 15th October UK release
15th October 21 – Halloween Kills
21 October 21: Dune
22nd October 21: The French Despatch
22nd October 2021 – Last Night In Soho
22nd October 2021 – Boss Baby 2: Family Business (UK)
5th November 2021 – Eternals

People can check for themselves via the below link on whats around at any given time.

https://www.dcm.co.uk/films/date/2022/04

I think maybe you don't get the commercial reality of this for the studios as much as everyone else and with all in the industry seeking to rebuild attendance levels in an increnmental way back to where they were before the pandemic. The last thing any studio would wish to do is effectively "burn" a film by putting on release when there is not the demand.

Attendance levels we know from AMC and Vue were already back to roughly 75% to 80% prior to James Bond.

We also know that in two comments from AMC in only the last few weeks that firstly 40% of pre-bookings were from people who had not been to the cinema since the pandemic started. More recently in the one I posted earlier it showed that it was up to 50%. (AMC + 1 million NTTD tickets sold|)

I retain a relatively up to date list of what I think will be good and mid range releases and there are many others and all can check them for themselves off the link at the end.

Q4 has definitely got an intensive burst of the bigger film releases and in between are several very good films.

Lets take for instance this 5 weeks. Bigger films: Bond, Venom, Dune, The Eternals.
Then the inbetweeners: Many Saints of Newark, Adams Family 2, Halloween Kills, The French Despatch, Last Night in Soho, Boss Baby 2 (UK)

Objectivity there are probably as many releases in this 5 week period as there were in the full 3 months from F9's release in June through to the end of September.

I've looked at RR recently and concluded it has probably risen too far now imho and is plateauing at the top of its present range, until it sorts more of its balance sheet out. There was a bit of hype recently off micro nuclear reactors across the country which I also caught but ultimately when I researched further it will take 10 years to take those from concept to bringing the first ones online. Because it sells big ticket items there is always a delay between contract announcement and delivery.

Not saying is won't be for everyone but good luck. I may pick it up likewise if it dips a bit.

I replied nice and civilly to you and answered your question but you became derogatory in your reference to me in your post prior and din't answer my question so in my filter bin you go.

Let me put you on the spot with your own estimate.

How much do you think the UK Box Office for No Time To Die will increase this week, from Monday through to Sunday at 23:59?

Might help with your estimate
https://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/markets/article-10073905/Odeon-comes-blazing-cinemas-Bond-boost-boost.html

Tommy - last week you came on here spouting off that opening a Bond film on a Monday was somewhat different from opening it on a Thursday, when both are weekdays and some have to work the next day. It then went on to break records for a Bond film.

Below is the Hollywood Reporter article with their $60M Estimate for Bond which looks to be bang on and it might be higher. So its in line. I'll scan later when I get more time for the $50M estimate I read.

Still going for it coming close to being the first post pandemic film to gross $1 BN and that is because I am patient. You have to let all the theatrical windows run their course and the cumulative audiences add up. It set records last weekend in multiple countries, adds Russia and France and others this week. It has China and several other larger markets still to open in. ?

I've been tracking it all week and it's been a near total sellout on my barometer cinema all week. It's also niw into it's second weekend and take yourself a look at the 7.20pm IMAX at Cineworld Leicester Square or the same at Cineworld Leeds which commonly get used on here. That's when most people go to the cinema for a night out.

https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/movies/movie-news/no-time-to-die-box-office-friday-1235029067/

Very good numbers off Bond. Initial estimates I saw were $50M and I would have risked a bet on $70M. We wait for the definitive numbers.

Company Material Adverse Effect is normally a break clause in any contract. However in the Cineworld / Cineplex Arrangement Agreement instance it cannot be used by either as there is a specific exclusion listed.

From The Arrangement Agreement.

“Company Material Adverse Effect” means any change, event, occurrence, effect or
circumstance that, individually or in the aggregate, with other such changes, events,
occurrences, effects or circumstances, is or would reasonably be expected to have a
material and adverse effect on the business, affairs, operations, assets, liabilities, financial
condition or results of operations of the Company and its Subsidiaries taken as a whole,
EXCEPT ANY SUCH CHANGE, EVENT, OCCURRENCE, EFFECT OR CIRCUMSTANCE ARISING OUT OF, RELATING TO, RESULTING FROM OR ATTRIBUTABLE TO:

(e) any earthquake, flood or other natural disaster OR OUTBREAKS OF ILLNESS or
other acts of God;

Always dyor and to form any sort of objective judgement you would probably need to have been watching this from the start.

Closing remarks look likely at the start of November and then the judge retires to consider everything and deliver a written verdict. Like I've said previously I will be surprised if that is not December. Here's all 243 pages of the AB Stable ruling for you to gauge how long you think it will take to write a detailed judgement like this.

https://courts.delaware.gov/Opinions/Download.aspx?id=313600

Lastly where the newspaper article mentions Material Adverse Effect clause for Cineplex there is a specific exclusion in the Arrangement Agreement which excludes "illness" and therefore Covid. You will also commonly hear this referred to as Force Majeure but as stated there is a specific exclusion for "illness"

Had it not included illness as an exclusion both sides should have been able to utilise it to end the agreement. That will probably explain why you have heard very little on it throughout.

3. "Extraordinary Changes" which DEPARTED RADICALLY from NORMAL and ROUTINE operations of the business AND THAT WERE WHOLLY INCONSISTENT WITH PAST PRACTICE and which would lead to significant challenges in resuming operations WERE A BREACH OF THE ORDINARY COURSE.

My monies on a favourable outcome.

I am happy to pick up on a number of points mentioned in here for a) I have followed the case e b) have read the Arrangement Agreement and c) Have also looked at existing case law.

Point 1. Firstly this will not be a subjective judgement but an objective judgement by the judge and based on all the facts, evidence and testimony presented and it will be done with reference to other relevant case law.
Point 2. The key question I keep saying will be: Were Cineworld within their rights to legitimately end the Arrangement Agreement due to breaches by Cineplex of certain conditions within? On that front the +60 days mentioned in the article actually extended payments to +90 days. This was an unprecedented deviation by Cineplex and the only time it was done previously was some 20 years previously and in entirely different circumstances. Not normal course. Then the Queensway deal - a $25M deal done surrendering a major lease obligation on one of the best revenue generating tier 1 Cinemas, between a friend and business associates, previously on the Cineplex board and who in writing advised EJ that Cineplex would need Cineworld consent (as per the purchase agreement. Cineplex did not seek it. The same with other consents on what are Accounts payable. No consent sought. This directly leads on to the $725M Debt ceiling which was another condition precedent in the Arrangement Agreement / contract. Cineplex were within a whisker of this and decided to "push out" or extend all "Accounts Payable - AP" Nothing in documentary form to relate these decisions to Covid19. All referring solely to aprimary motivation of keeping things under the $725 debt ceiling. This led to extending payment terms to virtually all Landlords, Studios and Suppliers. No consent was sought for this. But over and above that by not paying these it increases the indebtedness off Cineplex over the threshold. It is a debt until it is paid. These debts would have remained on the balance sheet and be passed on to the purchaser, Cineworld, on closure.
Point 3. You need to familiarise yourself with previous case law on this. Delaware Courts case AB Stable was the first case to rule on a pandemic cessation of contract - and it ruled in favour of the defendant (which would be CINE) and provided guidance on 3 key points.
1. "Consent". Failing to Seek the Buyers Consent is Wrong in the context of the ordinary course. It is not an empty formality or hollow gesture. Even if the contract says that consent could not be reasonably witheld. It lets the purchaser enquire, query and impose conditions if applicable and if refused the proper route is that you litigate.
2. "Ordinary Course" IS NOT "ordinary response to extraordinary events" (think pandemic and comparing to others) IT is the ROUTINE CONDUCT of the business UNDER NORMAL CIRCUMSTANCES.
tbc

Not a bad idea that. I may look to double bill Venom2 with Halloween Kills next weekend and squeeze in a bit of early Christmas shopping in between.

"Next time I sell my car I might stick a few bills for petrol and air fresheners I had to buy between the buyers deposit and their final payment. What’re my chances?

Can you make it a convertible so it doesn't have a roof or ceiling.

Plumber,

Bond has been selling out on virtually all showings and added showings (bar a handful of mainly single seats) on my barometer cinema all through this week. About 33 showings in total I believe and the weekend is looking very strong indeed. Note these are from pre-bookings alone. The weekend is also looking very strong for a sell out.

Usual denial of any success off our market makers on CINE in dismissing what were opening weekend record breaking numbers but my conclusion fwiw is that I think this "weeks" box office might come close and may even surpass "opening weekend" again on top.

I've also canvassed several good friends and neighbours and know they are in the running for either next week or the week after.

Lets see what joy both Bond and Venom 2 provide us with at the US Box Office this weekend to add to the UK numbers.

The principal question the judge will be ruling on is this.

"Were Cineplex in Breach of the contract and did Cineworld legitimately end it"

(Remember the evidence already tendered, +90 days added to suppliers, that Queensway deal, Other consents, Deviations from the normal course)

Many associated side issues but that is what it all boil down to.
You need to keep a higher level overview on this rather than focussing on the minutie of points.

Have a great weekend.

It's been a good few weeks here on MTRO and it's turning out to be one of my favourite financials at the minute.

Packing up for the weekend and if you are all stuck for something to do take yourself and the family to see the new james Bind film. Very good film and Imax is proably the best format to see it in.

Hopefully a nice build up to results and now that the economy has largely opened up, hopefully some good recovery progress to be reported.

Another good day on TLW with a string oil price to back it. Packing up early on here for the day.

If you are struggling for things to do at the weekend its worth going to see the new Bond film No Time To Die, wherever you wish. Great film and probably best seen in Imax.

Enjoy