Van Tam has just told us it will never go away...
One would think it then becomes a matter of how infectious it remains once we relax all measures. And how prevalent it is in winter - when it will become an enduring additional strain on the NHS. As the baddest ‘flu’ in town, I can’t see the demand for testing to go away. I’d suggest it would remain constant in healthcare settings and travel for the forseeable, and seasonal in everyday life.
Test x3
Rizwana adds: “As we have facilities based in China, we were able to provide early support and also be on the front-foot in predicting a global need. We manufacture a full range of consumer essentials, including female sanitary products. When the outbreak initially began in China, we immediately restructured our production machines to begin producing high-quality PPE equipment.
Headquartered in Bradford, Multibrands International was established in 1998 manufacturing and supplying a range of premium quality, own-brand, everyday FMCG consumer essentials including personal hygiene, and advanced LED household lighting solutions to leading wholesalers and independent buying groups worldwide. The company currently employs over 50 members of staff with additional administration and production facilities in India and China.
Uhuh
The US is going to get hammered with Thanksgiving super spreading followed by Christmas. We’ll only have one super spreading event between 23-27th Dec. January and February shaping up to be locked down, cold and pretty miserable.
Yes, I am this fun at a party. Bah humbug.
Test x 3
Yes it was. And no idea whether or not ‘it was us’. What I found of more interest was the subsequent vaccine chat - or rather lack of vaccine chat. It was suggested there will be no mass vaccine roll out until 2022...
Test x 3
What exactly would an Avacta tweet regarding being in this current bid look like? Genuinely, does anyone not think it would just open another Pandora’s Box of for the insatiable types on this board?
Then what? How much of the tender are we bidding for? How many bids have we put in for various different tests? Why were some test bids put forward but not others? Was THE test in there? If not, why not? And so on and so on.
The facts are in the latest RNS.
To quote finnCap’s morning note from 23rd November:
“commercial partnership discussions are ongoing to enable the deployment of these tests in the UK and Europe once CE marked.”
Clearly the CE marking opens up sales potential to the European market. Forgive my ignorance but is there any read across with the CE to other international markets?
What with the news that the current crop of vaccines aren’t as effective as they claim, probably don’t stop transmission or are a logistical nightmare to store / transport, I’m not seeing the economy opening up again any time soon unless there’s mass testing. And we know the government is intent on doing that at least until 2022. Even if we’re not on the current tender, getting the tests (we have many horses at the races) right while other offering fall will only serve us well into next year. Hopeful we have news in the next couple of weeks
So, correct me if I’m wrong but some facts about the current vaccines:
- One of them needs to be transported / stored at -70C. We’ve bought enough doses of this unicorn for 2m people by late spring
- As yet, there is no data on how effective they will be at stopping transmission but it’s likely they won’t
- Our much heralded Oxford / AstraZeneca vaccine is only 62% effective in the over 55s. I’m guessing that’s an average so who knows how effective it really is in the over 75s - our most at risk demographic.
This situation is ripe for an effective test produced at scale. All eyes on you, Al!
https://apple.news/AgsFiXeTzSOaRJWv9rYOKEA
The UK now has the capacity to carry out over 500,000 tests a day, with new labs to be opened next year to double that number.
He said he wanted to see the "global-scale diagnostics capability" continued to be used.
"Afterwards we must use it, not just for coronavirus, but everything," he told MPs.
"I want to have a change in the British way of doing things where 'if in doubt, get a test' doesn't just refer to coronavirus but refers to any illness that you might have.
"Why in Britain do we think it's acceptable to soldier on and go into work if you have flu symptoms or a runny nose, thus making your colleagues ill?
"I think that's something that is going to have to change.
"If you have, in future, flu-like symptoms, you should get a test for it and find out what's wrong with you, and if you need to stay at home to protect others, then you should stay at home.
"We are peculiarly unusual and outliers in soldiering on and still going to work, and it kind of being the culture that 'as long as you can get out of bed you still should get into work'. That should change.
"This year there's been far fewer respiratory and other communicable diseases turning up in the NHS.
"I want this massive diagnostics capacity to be core to how we treat people in the NHS so that we help people to stay healthy in the first place, rather than just looking after them when they're ill."
The last paragraph is what interests me...
So much bu tt hurt on the board tonight. SP taking a dip on the combined vaccine / holding RNS news was no surprise. Careful what you wish for, ey.
With so much in the short and mid term pipeline, I hold. Not very nice seeing holding down 30% and I’m disappointed at the delays as much as the next holder, but who genuinely thinks the requirement to test will go away? Vaccines - which won’t roll out in force until late spring - have so far barely left the lab. Pfizer’s is a unicorn and they knew exactly what they were doing with the press release. Where is the data on how long they will guarantee protection? Will it be 18 months? 12.. 6? Or less? I’d love to hear that they offer lifelong protection and the world gets back on its feet. Sadly this is highly unlikely. Certainly those in charge of T&T will not be preparing for that scenario. In the meantime, the virus will continue to circulate seasonally around the world. Some nations will be better than other at containing it. Eradication is still far away dream.
So, barring a complete lifting of lockdown measures with a concurrent and miraculous drop in infection rates to virtually zero, I can’t see the government planning on anything other than continued mass testing of our population for the next 6-12 months. Not to mention foreign governments if we are looking to sell the product overseas, as well as commercial applications such as live sport / bars / theatres / international travel. I’d say there’s still a fairly significant market to tap into wouldn’t you?
GLA