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Why, thank you, Ray, but I’m not sure if you understood my point.
I’m also not sure about Innova’s test being approved. It’s the only one out there that has been manufactured en masse, hence our government’s affinity for it. If you’re not aware of the negative press it received over poor S&S results, it’s probably worth reading some of the many posts on the subject. Certainly leaves the door open for a government endorsed national test - which takes time! It’s there on the Avacta website, clear as day.
Wyn - for the love of god, there’s only so many ways of repeating your same lengthy point! Can we try and cut it down to bite sized chunks from now on?
For example:
“I think we’re delayed. Believe the SP may be affected negatively. Opinion only. Let’s hope it’s soon”
I think it’s fair to say Al was economical with the truth when he claimed to have a test ready by summer. That may have been a development prototype. Getting that through all the stages of tech transfer, validation etc and eventually to market - WITH government endorsement - that’s what takes the time. The process is slow, the process is painful for holders. But we’re part of that process and you might as well accept it, put the kettle on and watch that pot boil instead.
They also need manufacturing capability. There’s no guarantee that’s going to meet the demand just yet. Besides, the backlog of Innova shiite is still sat in school store rooms waiting to burned/ used as required.
I have remained sanguine about the delays (and ensuing SP movement) on the basis our IP has the potential to be the best-in-class. Escape mutations are sadly proving the virus is here to stay for the foreseeable.
To quote Avacta’s website:
“As with all diagnostics, the new Affimer-based LFA and BAMS tests must undergo validation and go through the clinical approval process prior to distribution for public use. Furthermore, in general, POC tests must be validated in the appropriate populations and settings before being recommended by a government, and can therefore have a longer development process than standard laboratory diagnostic tests.”
You can’t make it any more obvious that we’re working on a test that will not only be bought by but also positively endorsed by HMG.
I think the various government departments will be crawling over themselves to bask in the positive PR a national LFT would provide. Think about it...
Transport Secretary - “we’ve opened up travel corridors to the world”
Education Minister - “we’ve opened schools for all”
Treasury / Business Secretary - “we’ve found a way to fire up the engines of the economy safely”
And then you’ve got Hancocck, Whitty et al waxing lyrical about the NHS being opening for more trade again, safe in the knowledge that hospitals are not transmission zones.
And of course Boris and his Great British, world leading, sovereign test that ties it all together. The One Ring to rule them all...
Neutronic - I’ve been having similar musings myself. In a recent post I likened it to a 1st World problem if that’s where we’re really at. Throw in to the mix a global shortage of constituent parts for these tests (as David Wilson commented on in his October Labroots interview) and we have a slight issue here with scaling and validating various different manufacturers.
Commercial sensitivities in every conceivable direction. Purely speculation and a nice dilemma to have, I suppose. Hopefully we’ll have an update soon. Covid isn’t going away - CNN reporting a recent U.K. study suggests only 5 months of natural immunity if exposed. Eeek
https://www.cnn.com/2021/01/14/health/covid-immunity-antibodies-intl/index.html
It’s a possibility. The main focus at the moment is vaccine rollout. That’s the immediate life saver but doesn’t open up the economy fully until we have regular mass testing. The more I think about David Wilson’s interview the more I’m beginning to think the issue isn’t our test or S&S or CONDOR. The issue may well be access to raw materials to produce the tests in the volumes required. In the meantime, we tweak and refine and fettle the product. Consider an RNS announcing S&S and the success of a highly accurate PoC test. And the subsequent RNS having to detail why it’s not going in to mass production yet for reasons mentioned.
Just speculating but I wonder if there’s an element of keeping powder dry here until the big announcement can be made with assurance of production quantity. I can only imagine the commercial wrangling that must be going on behind the scenes if we are in fact dealing with multiple LFT producers.
Speculating here. Is there a possibility that there is a known delay to the scaling of our product. If BBI / Abingdon / Omega / Cytiva are all putting their hands up saying “we can’t make that many tests yet” why would you freeze the design? If there’s a way of improving the test, doing more R&D on the knowledge that industry isn’t quite ready to mass produce, I can’t think of a reason why you wouldn’t want to keep working on the S&S figures. Just a thought...
*VERY* good find and essential listening for all invstors.
The biggest thing I got out of that was the idea of the diagnostics industry emerging from the shadows and becoming an enduring national strategic asset. So many clues dropped in there - fascinating stuff.
Re the LFT it would appear the major hurdle is scaling the product and getting hands on enough raw materials to manufacture tests at the sort of scale the world demands now and in will continue to demand in the future. Frustrating and encouraging at the same time. I hold on the basis that Avacta’s various divisions and products coming to market are going to have an almost unlimited demand. Not only that, the diagnostics industry as a whole would seem to be set for serious growth into the 2020s and beyond.