Member Info for Larry_Livingston

Hi Boyobach totally agree with you is not an easy question to answer, tbh I’m not that skill full to answer it too and don’t have a price as such :-)
Also to me it’s hard to anticipate a commodity based business like RDS because there are a lot Macro factors that affect it and other things like OPEC+ infighting last year than a normal business that depends its own product.

I’m not a techie but interested the momentum of the stock price, what I do is use target prices as pointers to tell me the direction or to give me a signal (warning or danger). So I don’t have a set price but I have what i would term normal or abnormal reaction/retrace if that’s what you mean.

So for example using last night Closing price 1520.40, first to me anything higher than the recent Low 1283.60 would be a normal reaction.

Then:-
a) 1283.60 - I hope it doesn’t get this far but if it does I will be watching closely to see if it goes below or not.
b) 1159.94 - this would be my warning signal because it’s below the recent low 1283.60 it made on 28/05/2021.
c) 916.80 - this is my danger signal because it the first low it made last year on 18/03/2020 b4 making a new Lower Low 866.40 on 28/10/2020.

Is the same thing to the upside, the 3 price targets I mentioned last night tells me where trend wants to go. And the higher the price go then the higher my Downside targets will move.

Is probably not the simple answer you were asking but I hope I explained my thinking a bit and makes sense. I also agree with you i think RDS has tailwind atm, that’s excluding any unknown events in the future, that’s why RDSB is my second biggest holding and plan to hold it until my target price is reached or forced to stop losses.

It’s nice to finally see today a new Higher High made since 1518 12/03/2021, I wonder how long the pent-up energy from the breakout that Boyobach’s charts showed will carry on b4 we have a meaningful reaction and Q3. So let’s see what the follow ups hold.

Now that my previous targets 1486 & 1518 have been met, the following are my own indicators/pointers to tell me which direction the stock price wants to go and are the closing prices simplicity.

Upside:-
1598 - Low made on 20/03/2008 from the High 2167 made on 06/07/2007
1933 - my own target based on recent Low 1283.60 made on 28/05/2021
2219 - High made on 12/06/2001 b4 retracing to the Low 1159.94 made on 12/03/2003

Downside:-
1283.60 - Low made on 28/05/2021 from the High 1518 made on 12/03/2021
1159.94 - Low made on 12/03/2003 from the High 2218.93 made on 12/06/2001
916.80 - Low made on 18/03/2020 from the High 2841 made on 21/05/2018

This is not predictions of what will happen next with the stock price but are my own indicators or guides the momentum of the stock price Up/Down, they say “the trend is your friend” because it’s easy to swim with the tide than against it.IMHO GLA DYOR

To me I hope it carries on the upward momentum and makes a new Higher Highs after patiently waiting 6 months to get this far and I hope Q3 holds nice surprises too.

Totally agree with you I like to have the cash and decide for myself where to put it like most PIs I’m sure.

Boyobach you’re right it could be buybacks, Tbh to me it’s a vague statement and it could mean one or other or both, I guess that’s why Managements like to use it.

it looks like though reading between the lines that the BOD slightly worded the Buybacks differently in July’s Half Yearly statements compared to Monday’s statement but I could be wrong.

Here is a small extract from the July’s statement they made about the start of current buybacks from the RNS above.

“Thu, 29th Jul 2021 07:03
Shell announces commencement of share buybacks
July 29, 2021
Royal Dutch Shell plc (the ‘company’) today announces the commencement of share buybacks as part of its move to the next phase of its capital allocation framework, which includes shareholder distributions in a range of 20-30% of CFFO.”

At the moment we’re all guessing because only the BOD really knows, but we’ll find out in Q3 or Q4 when Management decide to make a statement after the transaction closes.

Caitlin1 and to me too but I won’t be complaining 66p if we have it all in cash we never had either :-)

To correct my post last night it’s 90c, which works out about 66p based on today’s exchange

That’s true because no deal is a done deal until the cash is safely in your bank account:-)

On the Spec Divi vs Buybacks, we’re all guessing (us & the media) cos the RNS only said “$7 billion in additional shareholder distributions after closing, with the remainder used for further strengthening of the balance sheet. These distributions will be in addition to our shareholder distributions in the range of 20-30% of cash flow from operations.”, it could mean one or the other or both, also remember the current buybacks runs till EOY. Only the BOD really knows what they want to do with the money.

Based on the Total number of shares as of August 31, 2021 of 7,784,375,231, that works out roughly about 90p per share I think, that’s a nice cash to have if we all get it in Special Divi.

Also the share price could easily go to 1520.60 from today’s closing price from arbitrage perspective to me.

Lovely Jubbly

I can’t speak for Boyobach but to me the focus of a price or the daily price movements is not good because I’m more likely to be frustrated for not getting where or when I wanted. I always remind myself that the stock market doesn’t know me nor cares let alone what I want. And from experience if I let myself become frustrated then I’m more likely to give up at the wrong time and get out just when it was turning to the direction I was hoping for all along because stock prices move up and down, it always has and it always will.
So I try not to set a price in my head but I use a set of stock prices Up and Down as my own guides, indicators or pointers to tell me the directions the stock price wants to go instead, even then sometimes i get it wrong or it reverses after than I was expecting, then I just remember the old saying “Markets are never wrong but opinions often are”, so I just change my opinion accordingly it’s nothing personal and nothing is 100% correct all the time I’m just reducing the chances of being wrong.

I think anyone who wants to get involved in the stock market should read George Soros’s book “The Alchemy of Finance” and at least read Chapter 1 - Reflexivity in the Stock Market pg 49 or at least watch the YouTube video “George Soros Lecture Series: Financial Markets” to understand it b4 getting involved, i find it really interesting and I learned the 3 market dynamics (the Underlying trend, the Prevailing bias and the Stock price) about the Stock Market and helps me to understand it a bit. I’ve learned that the Stock price consists and reflects the other two, for example when the diverge then there’s more volatility because there’s a battle of the two groups that goes on, but when they converge then that’s when the momentum is so obvious either to the upside or downside just like it did last year with RDS or the stock market in general, the underlying trend and prevailing bias were both negative. Well I find it useful IMHO

Ggp thank you that’s an interesting article, I might buy the book in the future to get to know a little bit.

Also saw this article and thought it was interesting to know the main drivers of high energy prices and it looks like it will be with us for a while. Now I’m glad that I’ve just signed up for 2 yrs fixed contract 2 wks ago, so hopefully 1 less thing to worry about.

4 Catalysts Now Sparking Soaring European Energy Prices:-
https://uk.investing.com/analysis/4-catalysts-now-sparking-soaring-european-energy-prices-200496577

I’m not surprised with Tate & Lyle announcements of Special Dividend and Share Consolidation, it seems it’s the buzz word with CEOs at the moment like other companies Tesco, GSK, Vectura, Pennon etc have already done to make the CEO look good when the EPS goes up due fewer shares than b4. It shows me the kind of management at the helm and not in a good way

Well with today’s announcement of approval of the sale by the FCA and the voting being held on 30th Sept, hopefully we’ll have some good news and details about the Special Dividend soon for a change to stop this dripping downward momentum since May’s announcement

Thank you I’ve seen it now, I don’t know how I missed that one

Don’t worry Optimist you’ll get your Down days because nothing shoots straight up :-) What i’m really interested is whether it breaches £40 mark before it has a Natural Reaction or takes a break and reverses below it to take a breath before it goes over it

You were right, It looks like the industry is experiencing some tailwinds at the moment.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/post-covid-19-shipping-tailwinds-will-still-be-strong-11614334010

I hope you are right but It made a new low 705.60 on 31/08/2021 so let’s see.
I’m not a technical person but the stock price behaviour is important to me of the direction it wants to go.

So for me before I can think of that momentum has changed to upwards, first I hope it closes above 745ish that would tell me the direction might be changing finally and then if it closes above 771ish would confirm that a change of direction might be in progress, before first I can dream of seeing 815.80 again and perhaps consider that the upward momentum might have resumed again to me and then I’ll worry high targets later.

Please note that this is my own price targets, pointers, guides or signposts of Price movement and not advice or predictions of what will be.IMHO DYOR

Well there goes a new Lower Low 712.60 closing price, it looks like this stock wants to go low how low who knows let’s see.

Gaspunter to me that’s a dangerous question to ask total strangers what you should do or how protect Your money. If we’re really that Smart to know the answer to your question I don’t think we would be here on the LSE board do you? and also nobody really knows what tomorrow holds let alone what the Stock price will do next, so I don’t ask what I should do with my money even people that I truly know. Remember us PIs are outsiders looking in really and only found out what happened after they’ve happened when it’s bad news if we are really lucky but by then our money could have depreciated a lot. I’ve learned that hard lesson with Northern Rock in 2008 at the start of the financial crisis.

Is not what you are asking But to me it is your money and your decision to make because only you really know your situation and life better than anybody else I’m afraid. Sometimes decisions are not always easy to make but just make the best decision for yourself at that time because we in live in the present not in the past and definitely not the future. IMHO