Member Info for Larry_Livingston

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/04/14/oil-markets-global-supply.html

https://uk.investing.com/news/commodities-news/eu-meets-opec-amid-calls-for-oil-output-increase-2623185

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/04/06/oil-markets-russia-sanctions-demand-concerns.html

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-61013908

https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/natural-gas

https://www.spglobal.com/commodity-insights/en/market-insights/latest-news/energy-transition/032822-russia-an-important-opec-member-cant-replace-its-production-uaes-mazrouei

A good and comprehensive analysis of the current Oil market dynamics to help understand I thought and wanted to share.

Part 1
https://uk.investing.com/analysis/oils-biggest-supply-crisis-in-decades-warns-of--even-higher-prices-ahead-200513962

Part 2
https://uk.investing.com/analysis/oil-biggest-supply-crisis-in-decades-warns-of--higher-prices-ahead-part-ii-200514066

Hi Boyo yes £21 will be sight for sore eyes indeed

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/03/23/oil-markets-us-stockpiles-russia.html

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/OPECs-Best-Kept-Secret-Will-Soon-Be-Revealed.html

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/03/18/russia-backs-down-on-demands-in-iran-nuclear-deal-talks-making-revival-of-2015-pact-imminent.html

https://www.ft.com/content/a5df06cf-a11c-42bd-81b5-5e30ec3a64aa

https://www.fxempire.com/forecasts/article/natural-gas-markets-continue-range-bound-trading-for-the-week-940130

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/US-Oil-Rig-Count-Drops-Despite-Rising-Crude-Prices.html

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/OPEC-Oil-Production-Is-1-Million-Bpd-Lower-Than-Target-Level.html

Hi Boyo it looks like that on the windfall tax the Americans might beat us to it, on Friday I heard that the Democrats want to introduce it but I am sure Republicans will oppose it. However you know mid term elections are just around the corner so anything is possible especially if prices stay elevated longer.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidblackmon/2022/03/12/democrats-file-new-tax-on-alleged-windfall-profits-by-big-oil/

It looks like so far the support 3110 (Closing price) made on 22/01/2020 held up when it closed above it at 3140 on Thursday 24/02/2022.

So has the stock price now bottomed at 3140, if it closes above 3600 will tell me it’s turning and then if it closes above 3975 will confirm it to me. So let’s see what the follow ups hold. IMHO DYOR GLA

It looks like this is the reason
https://uk.investing.com/news/commodities-news/oil-in-rollercoaster-mode-as-iran-talks-roil-market-2586779

Hi NSS

First the target prices to the upside or downside are what is called resistance and support in Technical analysis and hopefully this will explain better than me https://www.investopedia.com/trading/support-and-resistance-basics/. So for example with current Shell price of 2043, based on my previous prices the first resistance would be 2167 and 1556.40 would be the support.

To your second question of buying or selling, I wasn’t suggesting anything but was just mentioning the resistance/support I saw in my records.

That’s Ok just find something that works for you and always try to make your own decision to buy or sell since it’s your money your are risking the first place because that’s what I try to do whether I make a profit or loss. IMHO DYOR

Hi NSS thank you for checking but not exactly, I probably didn’t explain it properly. These prices are the results of the stock price action itself of where it turned around to the upside or downside previously and not mine, that’s why I quoted the date and the price. But if and when I anticipate a price target as per your example I hope don’t forget to say it. What actually moves up it’s the base of my target prices that I’m watching (my warning & danger signals) to cut my losses if I believe it’s going against my expectations of momentum direction if that makes sense.

For example the prices for the Downside are the Low prices it reached (Closing prices) after the following High prices (Closing prices).

1) 1556.40 made on 26/11/2021 from the High 1801.40 made on 20/10/2021 (my warning signal because it’s below the Low 1598 made on 20/03/2008 from the High 2167 made on 06/07/2007)
2) 1283.60 made on 28/05/2021 from the High 1518 made on 12/03/2021 (my danger signal)
3) 1159.94 made on 12/03/2003 from the High 2218.93 made on 12/06/2001

I hope that explains a bit more.