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Natural gas futures linked to TTF, Europe's wholesale gas price, rose to above €280 per megawatt hour, a new record high on renewed supply fears. Russia's Gazprom said it would cut flows through the Nord Stream pipeline to Germany for three days of maintenance at the end of August, exacerbating concerns about supplies and raising the risk of a recession if Russia's natural gas squeeze widens. The state-owned energy company Gazprom has already reduced flows through the Nord Stream pipeline to roughly 20% of its capacity, citing issues with turbines. On top of that, exports from two of Caspian Pipeline Consortium's three mooring points at a Black Sea terminal have been halted, according to the company, citing a damaged pipeline as the cause. Adding to the bullish outlook, a historic drought triggered by an arid summer that set heat records across Europe threatens to end energy shipments along the Rhine River while limiting hydroelectric and nuclear power production.

https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/eu-natural-gas

https://twitter.com/jfjohnston/status/1561613553391607808?s=21&t=dPL8M4QuKlPCADVCTVn5Cg

‘ Oil
Even with the announcement on March 31st that the US government, in coordination with Japanese and European governments, would release almost 1.5 mm b/d of oil from their strategic petroleum reserves for the next six months, oil prices continued to move higher. During the second quarter, US oil prices, as measured by the West Texas Intermediate bench- mark, rose over 5%, whereas Brent prices rose almost 8%. Even with fears of Chinese economic slowdowns and demand destruction, the global oil market continues to get tighter and tighter—a tightness that is being masked by the SPR releases and is being ignored by almost everyone. In their latest “Oil Market Report,” the IEA made no mention of how SPR releases were behind the slight inventory build experienced over the last three months. Global oil inventories are steeply declining after stripping out the SPR releases—a point the IEA refuses to acknowledge. Plunging inventories, disappointing production growth from both the US shales and non-OPEC counties, and demand strength that continues to confound all the oil bears are covered in the oil section of this letter. We also revisit the issue of Saudi Arabia’s pumping capability. With more energy analysts now publicly admitting that that OPEC’s pumping capability may be overstated and given that oil markets will need every barrel of stated pumping capability in order to meet market demand in Q4, it is of utmost impor- tance to know whether the Saudis can indeed pump the 12 mm b/d they claim. In this letter, we update our Saudi pumping capability study given that three years have passed since our original thoughts.

Global Demand is running significantly higher than consensus admits, supply continues to disappoint, and we believe pumping capability will reach its limit in Q4—a first in 160 years of oil market history.’

‘In a world of abundant energy, society can energetically afford to invest in windmills and solar farms. However, when faced with an immediate energy crisis like we have today, every incremental unit of renewable energy will only make the problem worse.
There is still today a widely held belief that rising energy costs will make renewable power more competitive. This naïve view neglects just how energy intensive renewable power truly is. Policy makers would be advised to understand these limitations before enacting major renewable subsidies that will only make the current energy shortage that much worse. Europe’s $1 trilllion investment in wind and solar has produced the worst energy crisis in decades. Given the recent passage of the Biden administration’s “Inflation Reduction Act,” with its billions in subsidies for various low EROEI renewable projects, we believe the US is now travelling down the same road as Europe.’

Hot off the press.

Goehring & Rozencwajg.

Q2 2022 Market Commentary.

https://info.gorozen.com/q2-2022-why-resources-during-a-recession?submissionGuid=63847d99-09c5-41d9-9dda-aec07a8c2df2

…..no need to worry about when to top slice as the special dividends will do it for you…. simples :)

Redbox….. GRH is well respected in here and remains consistent in his thinking and has done so since well before I arrived over 2 years ago. Some have only just arrived, others will come and go, some will swap sides as and when it suits……I know who I will listen to and who is to be avoided. My 4p average is held in very strong hands :)

1p sounds attractive but I wouldn’t want us to sell out too cheaply before realising full potential :)

Excellent news indeed :)

I don’t always agree with Malcy but this time I do… absolutely.
Further commitment from Paul this morning for which we will be handsomely rewarded in due course :)

Latest offering from Goehring & Rozenzwagj.

https://twitter.com/go_rozen/status/1558042609754509313?s=21&t=oZzYtrER2YcPUIUMIsfmfA

Interesting that a number of posters now have their ‘opinion’ set as ‘strong buy’ :)

Goehring & Rozencwajg.

Q2 2022 Market Commentary is due out any day now.

Donny…. Trading 212 don’t charge a trade fee but instead make their money on the spread.
For example, my 350k buy today was filled at 0.285p, no trade fee but I’ve paid well over the odds I know. No matter in the long run as I’m here for well in excess of 1p + :)

I fully expect IT to drop in our lap…. all in good time :)

Excellent news :)

Not long now…. patience will be rewarded imho :)

https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/uk-natural-gas

UK natural gas futures extended a rebound past 250 pence a therm on Wednesday, surging almost 40% since hitting an over two-week low of 185 pence at the start of the week, as comments by Russia’s President Putin about a conditional return of flows in Nord Stream 1 pipeline fueled volatility in the natural gas market. Putin warned that unless the spat over sanctioned pipeline parts was resolved, shipments would remain tightly curbed, at roughly 20% of capacity. The parts in question include two turbines, one which has already been sent from Canada to Germany, and another which is yet to be sent for maintenance. Moscow has drastically reduced supplies through all pipelines headed to Europe, which is driving anxiety among traders scrambling to refill inventories ahead of winter. Meanwhile, record high temperatures in the UK boosted demand for cooling.

Nick… I thought it was just me, I have thought for a long time Ireland was a WHEN and not an ‘if’ :)

… the energy crisis will intensify over the next few weeks/months as winter draws ever closer. In the meantime, we should thank our lucky stars that we are invested here, we should all be pulling together amicably as we do indeed have a common goal for which we will be handsomely rewarded….. all is coming together for PG & Lonny…. some might say a perfect storm….. patience :)