Gordon Stein, CFO of CleanTech Lithium, explains why CTL acquired the 23 Laguna Verde licenses. Watch the video here.
Debt should be down to $1.5bn from my calcs, end April, and will be debt free in 2022 at today's prices for oil and gas
Why is this not over £6 --- i dont really know but I know FCF is 20p of current sp per month !!
LB
With Tolmount online, I am pretty confident that HBR will now be debt free at the end of 2022 !
My CONSERVATIVE calculations:
From year end report, say low end 200kboepd production in 2022, 50% oil, 50% gas
50% of oil hedged @$61.00, 66% of gas hedged @$26.63
Hedged oil daily cash = 50k @$61= $3.05m
Unhedged oil daily cash = 50k@$100 = $5.00m
Hedged gas daily cash = 66k @$26.63 = $1.76m
Unhedged gas daily cash = 34k@$150=$5.10m (say 200p per therm = £116 per boe)
Daily total cash = $14.91m
Operating expenses= $3.2m
Daily operating cash flow = $11.71m
Annual operating cashflow =$4,274.1m
Less capital spend $1,300m
Less Interest $260m
Less divis $200m
FCF AND NET DEBT REDUCTION = $2,514m !!
We should be debt free within 11 MONTHS from Dec 21 year end !!
ATB
DYOR
Harbour is producing more than 50% of output as gas, and percentage of gas sales will increase in future years .... gas is more eco friendly and more sensitive to geopolitics as it is best transported by pipes rather than tankers. It is also fetches more per boe than oil !! ($150 vs $105).
Harbour is best and safest bet amongst oilers imo. Market will soon appreciate that !!
with such a difficult project, I think market is awaiting formal confirmation of flow rates by HBR.
Production to Feb 2022 was £219k boepd - which is above top end of the range for the year without Tolmont ! So clearly an additional 20k boepd from Tolmont cannot be priced at the moment.
Once flow rates and smooth running operation are confirmed, hopefully in May 11th TU, we will see a rerate of this stock. 20kboepd unhedged is just too much extra cashflow to ignore -£3m per day !!
Its online guys !!
https://www.oedigital.com/news/496031-harbour-energy-starts-production-from-tolmount-field-in-north-sea
Obsolute - good point
Going by year end debt, we could be debt free by November, and my calculations are on the conservative side. If Tolmonut comes online strong, then we could have an even earlier debt free status.
Surely this is one of the safest harbours in the current storms.#
ATB. DYOR
That's not built into SP due to years long delays - so when it is confirmed online I expect a spike in sp - say 10-15%
This output is unhedged, so 15kboepd generates $821m per annum - most of it straight to FCF !!
GL ALL
DYOR
Well spotted ephiphany !!
Revised figures:
From year end report, say low end 200kboepd production in 2022, 50% oil, 50% gas
50% of oil hedged @$61.00, 66% of gas hedged @$26.63
Hedged oil daily cash = 50k @$61= $3.05m
Unhedged oil daily cash = 50k@$100 = $5.00m
Hedged gas daily cash = 66k @$26.63 = $1.76m
Unhedged gas daily cash = 34k@$150=$5.10m (say 200p per therm = $136 per boe)
Daily total cash = $14.91m
Operating expenses= $3.2m
Daily operating cash flow = $11.71m
Annual operating cashflow =$4,274.1m
Less capital spend $1,300m
Less Interest $260m
Less divis $200m
FCF AND NET DEBT REDUCTION = $2,514m !!
We should be debt free within 11 MONTHS !!
ATB
DYOR
From Annual Results, say low end 200kboepd production in 2022, 50% oil, 50% gas
50% of oil hedged @61.00, 66% of gas hedged @$26.63
Hedged oil daily cash = 50k @$61= $3.05m
Unhedged oil daily cash = 50k@$100 = $5.00m
Hedged gas daily cash = 66k @$26.63 = $1.76m
Unhedged gas daily cash = 34k@$116=$3.94m (say 200p per therm = $116 per boe)
Daily total cash = $13.75m
Operating expenses= $3.2m
Daily operating cash flow = $10.55m
Annual operating cashflow =$3,850m
Less capital spend $1,300m
Less Interest $260m
Less divis $200m
NET DEBT REDUCTION = $2,090. !!
IMO
DYOR
From Feb22 operations update presentation, say mid-target production in 2022 is 47,500
Annual production = 17.34m
Say average Brent = $90
Total sales = $1,560m
Operating = $430m
Capital = $165m
Decommissioning $75m
Loan interest, say $100m
2022 FCF = $790M >> MKT CAP !!
Very conservative assumptions
CRAZY PRICE HERE !!
This will multibag x 6 in 2022. Here's why ...
Current P/E based on 2021 results is just under 2 .... based on 2022 it will have a forward P/E of @1
This is crazy .... P/E should be at least 6 even conservatively. Reason is that historically this is due to ENQ being high risk because of historic high debt and climate concerns... with N Sea being wound down.
With Russian invasion and Brent over $100, ENQ could be debt free sometime in 2023, and N Sea is now part of national security. Climate is taking a back burner for the foreseeable future.
That's why I think this will multibag by 6 in 2022.
Forget the 60p party, I am looking forward to the 200p party !!
All imo
DYOR