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From year end report, say low end 200kboepd production in 2022, 50% oil, 50% gas
50% of oil hedged @$61.00, 66% of gas hedged @$26.63

Hedged oil daily cash = 50k @$61= $3.05m
Unhedged oil daily cash = 50k@$110 = $5.50m

Hedged gas daily cash = 66k @$26.63 = $1.76m
Unhedged gas daily cash = 34k@$132=$4.48m (say 180p per therm = $132 per boe)

Daily total cash = $14.79m
Operating expenses= $3.2m
Daily operating cash flow = $11.59m

Annual operating cashflow =$4,230m
Less capital spend $1,300m
Less Interest $160m
Less divis $200m
Less buybacks $200m

FCF AND NET DEBT REDUCTION = $2,370m !!
We should be debt free by Christmas 2022 !!

WT not due till 2023. We will be saving on interest in 2023, so that should mitigate effects of WT

ATB
DYOR

These shares are being cancelled - zapped . That's it, they're gone forever !

This sp will rocket as buy back continues and results of increased Tolmont production, Timpan-1 drill and debt reduction come in over next few weeks

Short term target for me is £6

Any WT is not payable till Autumn 2023 - by then this company should be debt free !

huge drill - results cant be far

could be a company changer and open a new basin

From year end report, say low end 200kboepd production in 2022, 50% oil, 50% gas
50% of oil hedged @$61.00, 66% of gas hedged @$26.63

Hedged oil daily cash = 50k @$61= $3.05m
Unhedged oil daily cash = 50k@$110 = $5.50m

Hedged gas daily cash = 66k @$26.63 = $1.76m
Unhedged gas daily cash = 34k@$132=$4.48m (say 180p per therm = $132 per boe)

Daily total cash = $14.79m
Operating expenses= $3.2m
Daily operating cash flow = $11.59m

Annual operating cashflow =$4,230m
Less capital spend $1,300m
Less Interest $260m
Less divis $200m

FCF AND NET DEBT REDUCTION = $2,470m !!

We should be debt free by Christmas 2022 !!

WT not due till 2023. We will be saving $260m on interest in 2023, so that should mitigate effects of WT

ATB
DYOR

I fully expect HBR to be debt free in 2022, as any additional WT is not due till 2023

Fill yer boots time

ps Timpan-1 potential 'company changer' exploration well must be near completion

High impact drill results must be due soon .....

https://www.energyvoice.com/oilandgas/asia/372258/harbour-energy-set-to-drill-exciting-deep-water-andaman-probe/

This could be be a game changer for Hbr

AA2020

you talking out yer backside sadly

SODER

You are correct

Wording from guidance is "...91p tax saving for every £1 they invest..."

This means 91p in £1 invested is offset against TAX, not EARNINGS

We do have a lot of clowns on this board !

I anticipate that HBR will move forward their investment plans to mitigate the effects of the tax. Dividend should be scrapped. With all that investment in a coupe of years we will be producing many more barrels and tax will be coming to an end.

This really is a no-brainer for me ....

My estimates:

From Feb22 operations update presentation, say mid-target production in 2022 is 50,000

Annual production = 18.25m

Say average price after fixes = $90

Total sales = $1,642m
Operating = $430m
Capital = $165m
Decommissioning $75m
Loan interest, say $100m

2022 FCF = $872M >> MKT CAP !!

CRAZY PRICE HERE !!

This is due sometime in May 2022 - confirmed with the company

When do we expect the operations update ? Was 12th May last year

When do we expect the operations update ?

Enterprise value = Mkt + net debt = @ £6bn

FCF @ £2bn

How is that anywhere anywhere near fair valuation as Tolmount has now gine online and will produce additional 20kboepd going forward !!

This must be the most undervalued FTSE 100 imo

This just has to pop at some point

I expect a slow steady rise to £6+ over the next six months

Extremely profitable and cash generative, debt free within 12 months.

Safest harbour in a turbulent world imo

robort
TU is Wednesday 11th May

jw61

I am sure that yiu are not far off. I always tend to make conservative projections, and hope reality exceeds my expectations.

i agree that net debt could very likely be as low as $1.4bn end April. Once Tolmount achieves 15-20k boepd gas production, then I think we will see debt reduction accelerate.

My very conservative timeline is debt free by end November. It could actually happen in October !!

LB

Its pretty clear that this is being manipulated to be kept @500p by the market makers

That is frustrating but not necessarily a bad thing. Markets are jumpy at the moment, so this feels very safe. The fact that we are producing more and more gas is very good. Current production may be @230k boepd, but will find out next week. I think it will be a very good TU, then the brakes will be released and we should see a sizeable correction towards 600p imo.

I think debt end April will be reduced by $800m from year end to @ $1.5bn

Very happy days ahead imo. Im not selling my shares until the rerate !

GL All
DYOR

With Tolmount online, I am pretty confident that HBR will now be debt free before end of 2022 !

My VERY CONSERVATIVE calculations:

From year end report, say low end 200kboepd production in 2022, 50% oil, 50% gas
50% of oil hedged @$61.00, 66% of gas hedged @$26.63

Hedged oil daily cash = 50k @$61= $3.05m
Unhedged oil daily cash = 50k@$100 = $5.00m

Hedged gas daily cash = 66k @$26.63 = $1.76m
Unhedged gas daily cash = 34k@$150=$5.10m (say 200p per therm = £116 per boe)

Daily total cash = $14.91m
Operating expenses= $3.2m
Daily operating cash flow = $11.71m

Annual operating cashflow =$4,274.1m
Less capital spend $1,300m
Less Interest $260m
Less divis $200m

FCF AND NET DEBT REDUCTION = $2,514m !!

We should be debt free within 11 MONTHS from Dec 21 year end !!
ATB
DYOR

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