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Current P/E based on 2021 results is just under 2 .... based on 2022 it will have a forward P/E of @1
This is crazy .... P/E should be at least 6 even conservatively. Reason is that historically this is due to ENQ being high risk because of historic high debt and climate concerns... with N Sea being wound down.
With Russian invasion and Brent over $100, ENQ could be debt free sometime in 2023, and N Sea is now part of national security. Climate is taking a back burner for the foreseable future.
That's why I think this will multibag by 6 in 2022.
Forget the 60p party, I am looking forward to the 200p party !!
All imo
DYOR
Current P/E based on 2021 results is just under 2 .... based on 2022 it will have a forward P/E of @1
This is crazy .... P/E should be at least 6 even conservatively. Reason is that historically this is due to ENQ being high risk because of historic high debt and climate concerns... with N Sea being wound down.
With Russian invasion and Brent over $100, ENQ could be debt free sometime in 2023, and N Sea is now part of national security. Climate is taking a back burner for the foreseable future.
That's why I think this will multibag by 6 in 2022.
Forget the 60p party, I am looking forward to the 200p party !!
All imo
DYOR
Assume 10% of production is gas, unhedged
From Feb22 operations update presentation, say mid-target production in 2022 is 47,500
Annual production = 17.34m
OIL = 15.61m
GAS = 1.73m
OIL Hedged @$70 = 8.60 mbo = $602m
OIL Unhedged@$100 = 7.01mbo = $701m
GAS Unhedged@$200 = 1.73mboe = $346m
Total sales = $1,649m
Operating = $430m
Capital = $165m
Decommissioning $75m
Loan interest, say $100m
2022 FCF = $879M >> MKT CAP !!
THESE ARE VERY CONSERVATIVE ESTIMATES
Crazy valuation IMO !!
DYOR
Assume 5% of production is gas, unhedged
From Feb22 operations update presentation, say mid-target production in 2022 is 47,500
Annual production = 17.34m
OIL = 16.47m
GAS = 0.87m
OIL Hedged @$70 = 8.60 mbo = $602m
OIL Unhedged@$100 = 7.87mbo = $787m
GAS Unhedged@200 = 0.87 = $174m
Total sales = $1,563m
Operating = $430m
Capital = $165m
Decommissioning $75m
Loan interest, say $100m
2022 FCF = $793M >> MKT CAP !!
THESE ARE VERY CONSERVATIVE ESTIMATES
Crazy valuation IMO !!
DYOR
Well 6 months to June 21, gas/ condensate sales were $57.9m
Gas prices are @5 times higher in 2022.So I expect that gas/ condensate sales will be $580m if we simply pro-rata. So we would have to add this amount on to FCF, taking revenue over $2bn for 2022
Also my calcs were very conservative, both in terms of production and sale price . I've read article of N Sea oil now attracting a $3-4 premium over the quoted Brent as Russian supplies have been cut off to western companies. Also produCtion is likely to be much higher as capital/operating spend is much higher this year.
We could quite easily see $1bn FCF in 2022 .... this will result in a rerate for ENQ and this could multibag to £2+
What better hedge against rising inflation than betting in a small N Sea oil/gas producer ?!!
Ignore the daily noise and hold for 6 mnths - might be the best investment decision in your life !!
As always, DYOR
GL All
From Feb22 operations update presentation, say mid-target production in 2022 is 47,500
Annual production = 17.34m
Hedged @$70 = 8.60 mbo = $602m
Unhedged@$100 = 8.74mbo = $874m
Total sales = $1,476m
Operating = $430m
Capital = $165m
Decomminssioning $75m
Loan interest, say $100m
2022 FCF = $706M >> MKT CAP !!
THESE ARE VERY CONSERVATIVE ESTIMATES AND EXCLUDE GAS SALES
Crazy valuation !!
DYOR
From Feb22 operations update presentation, say mid-target production in 2022 is 47,500
Annual production = 17.34m
Hedged @$70 = 8.60 mbo = $602m
Unhedged@$100 = 8.74mbo = $874m
Total sales = $1,476m
Operating = $430m
Capital = $165m
Decomminssioning $75m
Loan interest, say $100m
2022 FCF = $706M >> MKT CAP !!
THESE ARE VERY CONSERVATIVE ESTIMATES AND EXCLUDE GAS SALES
Crazy valuation !!
DYOR
Annual operating cashflow =$3,916.5m
Less capital spend $1,300m
Less Interest $260m
Less divis $200m
NET DEBT REDUCTION = $2,156.5 !!
IMO
DYOR
From Dec 21 presentation, say low end 200kboepd production in 2022, 50% oil, 50% gas
50% of oil hedged @61.00, 66% of gas hedged @$26.63
Hedged oil daily cash = 50k @$61= $3.05m
Unhedged oil daily cash = 50k@$90 = $4.50m
Hedged gas daily cash = 66k @$26.63 = $1.76m
Unhedged gas daily cash = 34k@$136=$4.62m (say 180p per therm = $136 per boe)
Daily total cash = $13.93m
Operating expenses= $3.2m
Daily operating cash flow = $10.73m
Annual operating cashflow =$3,916.5m
Less capital spend $1,300m
Less Interest $260m
Less divis $200m
NET DEBT REDUCTION = $2,156.5 !!
IMO
DYOR