Oil 'Juniors' - IC Article13 Jun 2019 14:02
"Supply crunch to reignite interest in oil juniors?"
"If you needed confirmation that the appetite for higher-risk oil and gas stocks has been on the wane, you need only consider that they constituted 12 of the 25 most actively traded stocks on Aim back in 2008 – that’s now down to three: Hurricane Energy (HUR), Diversified Gas & Oil (DGOC) and Sound Energy (SOU)."
"But the ‘risk off’ sentiment on junior oil stocks that has prevailed since the 2014 slump mightn’t last forever, but surging production from the Permian Basin may have lulled us into a false sense of security."
IC View
Global crude demand hit 99.2m barrels a day in 2018, a 15 per cent rise since the start of the decade. Given the lengthy lead times involved in oil and gas exploration, it’s impossible to replenish lost future production overnight. The opportunity cost of the pulled capex could amount to 3m barrels a day, enough to tip the supply/demand balance into deficit, even with Saudi daily spare capacity at an estimated 1.5-2m barrels.