RE: Opec28 Feb 2021 18:13
Hi E121,
Thank you for your elaborate reply. You know shalers' modus operandi better than I do. I have never owned any shares of any pure shale play and have never looked at their accounts in detail. I do read the Dallas Fed survey and update my priors using surveying error.
Hopefully, we are headed to 3 digit price of oil (I like £112/bbl -:)) . Pelle will get his SEKs and I will have plenty of cash to spend on diffent things.
Hi Pelle, I have enough ENQ (I have had a 6 figure since when the SP was above 30p, to which I have added... , and larger than most of the non-execs on the board). So, I am done. I am happy to increase my exposure to oil but I am looking at other companies, for diversification purposes. That is why I asked about Tullow.
Alternatively I would like a company that specializes in fields at the end of their life. Usually they still have some life in them, and as Londoner7 pointed out at the very end you can resell to someone else who thinks he can do a deal with the fishes... In the past someone named such a company, but I forgot the name.
Hi Londoner7, I will wait to hear on the strategy for GKA. You mentioned there is a spreadsheet somewhere for the drawdown. Is there some pension provider that provides this? I have not spent anytime thinking about it, as I am not even 55... but, I believe in long term planning, and if the poo skyrockets as predicted around here then non-bingding constraints might start to be binding.
Hi Pelle, I have flown plenty over the last few months. Last flights in February... So, I am doing my part. It is now the turn for others to do their part. But flying internationally at the moment almost always requires a PCR test, and sometimes other tests just before boarding, e.g., if you fly to the Netherlands, and it is tiring and annoying. There won't be much flying until testing and home quarantines change.
Hi gkb47, I did not in any way imply that the calculations you posted last week were wrong. Presenting a simpler version, as you did, is enough to deliver the main message.
I only implicitly alluded in a subtle way to the fact that I often see calculations posted here that assume the projections put forward by ENQ or other oil companies will occur with probability 1. We know that is not the case. Sometimes, the actual outcome is better (Catcher will produce more than in the FDP, hopefully the same is true for Scotly and Crathes), but most often it is worse (paraphrasing, Londoner7 "sometimes stuff happens" and is "never good". He can correct me if I am quoting him incorrectly). I always use a margin of safety (see my calculations back in early Jan, with a 1.65Kboepd margin of safety for production in 2021) whe there are oil platforms/FPSOs/rigs involved. It is up to each one to do his own calculations as he wishes.
GLA
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