RE: Load #8921 Mar 2021 16:22
Hello Aloj,
I am afraid se simply do not know the reason for offload#89 to have taken 19 days. It might have been planned or unplanned. One thing is certain: production over the 25 days was c. 500Kbop. The hope is that the next ofload happens by 1st April. That would tell us that all is well. Enq will never comment on such matters.
Hi Pelle, I have noticed that you have quoted Nuttall a few times. His views on oil are very biased, and some of what he writes his completely misleading and wrong. Since he is a fund manager of an oil (energy) fund I would have expected him to be a more careful, and truthful with potential investors inthe fund he manages from which he collects huge fees. After, all that is his job. It is not a hobby, like it is for me.
I give you an example I just noticed on his twitter account:
https://mobile.twitter.com/eri****tall/status/1372184012979113989/photo/1
He is trying to measure how many years on the basis of FCF it would take for a company to buy back all of its debt and shares assuming oil at $60WTI/bbl and strip natural gas price. The exercise is flawed. Why? Think about what happens to the SP when a company buys back its own shares... Citing Nuttall is almost as bad as talking about the forbiddn subjects.
E121,
If you read my post on shale I did now write that Shale would be back to 13M/bbld soon. I have not done any calculations (no time), and I very much doubt anyone has nailed them prefectly. I see very diverse estimates everywhere. A lot of variables at play: temporary negative and positive shocks to rig productivity, fracking tempo of DUCs, etc. I believe that by Q4 production will have bottomed. It will then reverse and start to increase. I will keep your figure of 600 rigs in mind. If production by YE is 11.5Mbbld in the US, I would be happy. However, the great marketing campaign on the capital discipline that the industry has embarked on is misleading. You show self-discipline if you can have something but you choose not to (like an alcohoolic having a bottle in front of him but choosing not to drink). At the moment the E&P companies have capital constraints. I will see how discsiplined they are once capital is available to them. My prior is that they will not show as much discsipline as the media claims they will.
If you read the rest of my post I wrote I took the plung in the POO to buy Suncor shares. The rationale for that is that I expect Brent to go higher in the short run.
All,
I am curious about several figures to be realeased on Thursday: 2P reserves, the reduction of BP's contingency consideration, net debt at 28/02/21, and further hedges. I also hope that longer term planning is addressed, namely plans for Bressay, GKA, EP, and Malaysia.
GL A
p.s.: Incredible, over a period of 48 hours not a single post appeared in green, and in general a quiet week for the I would say. But, the filter has just kicked into action...
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