Member Info for L3Trader

Pelle,
what about a bet on a true interest rate?

hi Pelle,
yes, open offer will happen. 100% guaranteed.
since you predict to collect some money back soon please tell us your prediction for the interest rate that will be attached to the new RCF?
ATB

Hi Pelle,
So you think that Enquest is asking shareholders to come up with some cash now so that they get it back 6 months from now?... What is the logic behind that?

Heere is a challenge for you, Londoner7, gkb47, Therapist, Tarmak, and other numbers focused posters.

What interest rate will be attached to the new RCF?

Since Londoner7 is predicting that the new title of the Enquest Rights Issue & Open Offer Prospectus series will be released soon, let us have a poll here to see if we can predict the rate.

By interest rate, I mean the interest rate at the time when the proppectus is released, so, if it is (Libor/Sonia X months + 5%) we would do the sum at the time of the announcement, given the value of the Libor/Sonia X months at that time.

ATB

this idea of selling IRC when it is very profitable is telling... same old POG. good at doing bad business and bad at doing good business...

IRC is a very valuable asset now. when the amur bridge is in operation its profit would go up by about $15M per year. on a market cap of $350M, that is 4% of the market cap on its own...

30% of this market cap is $105M...

Hi Therapist,
Altera Wave left at 10 pm on the 3rd. Assuming it leaves today by 10 pm, that would be a cycle of 14 days. That is c. 35.5Kbopd.
Do put the pom poms away... But first you need to find out their value on a post-tax basis... And do not forget they are a working capital item for street performers. So, they need to be stored in a different cupboard...
ATB

Agreed.
IRC is a like a money printer. Yet at the end of every quarter the cash balance does not show large increases in cash...
The question that I have is: can IRC w/ plenty of cash generation repay the $180M loan at a faster pace than at the pace it agreed, w/out any major penalties? Theoretically it shoud be feasible. In practice the conditions of Gazprombank's loan to IRC could be such that it would be very costly. Were that the case then IRC could lend excess cash to POG as a way of reciprocating the gurantee POG gave on IRC's loan. POG could reduce its debt sooner (i.e., senior notes) than it would be able to do otherwise, and they could both benefit from such arrangement.
GL

Hi Londoner7,
Thank you for the reference.
ATB
L3Trader
p.s.: As for that TU in the other bb, it did not meet my expectations...

Hi Londoner7,
This is an investment I am very happy with. I do not even look at it regularly. That is how relaxed and optimist I am about it.
I still owe you a reply to your reply to my post/reply to a post in the Winter. Thank you for you contributions to this BB.
At some point you mentioned a book you had overseas. I was wondering if you could remind me the title.
Thank you.
ATB

Hello Slift,
Thank you for sharing your thoughts on both Bentley and Bressay. They are very useful for my own assessment of the investment case in ENQ.

Therapist and Londoner7: as for the pom poms better to offer them...

GL

shareholders need to write to GENL IR to let them know there is no case to keep current levels of CAPEX in Kurdistan. At the end of the day the KRG is made up of politicians that do not respect agreements. And, GENL has to tell KRG that it cannot keep on investing at the current pace with uncertainty about payments. That is all.

there was a typo:
This is an absolute disgrace. GENL should not invest more of its money in Kurdistan until KRG pays most of what it owes.
Yes CAPEX needs to just be stopped.
KRG wants income from DNO and GENL's investments, well it needs to settle its debts first.

Tarmak,
The whole point of being a lth is to to develop an understanding how the different parts of a company move together. Of course, short term movements are hard to predict. For the sake of simplicity, in my projections I assume Capex&Abx are evenly spread out year round and there are no capital movements. The whole point is to see if one is not very far off when the numbers are revealed...

Momentum and noise traders do not care about financial and operational details of companies. They trade on short-term indicators: daily movements of price of oil and of the share price, etc. I have no time or interest on such daily movements.

On GE: once there is a closing date for the deal I can think about how the business will change money coming in, and money going out... ($325M & 2 contigency cvosiderations of $25M each).

Londoner7's fabulous arithmetic expression is: $$$ = Volume x Price
we know Price has been positive for ENQ. Tomorrow we will find out if finf out about Volume.

Londoner7, you do not need any of the Capex assumptions to project production. So, be brave and tell us the magical number you are expecting for production.

....... give me a "g", give me an "n",......

p.s.:hitman1a, the questions had to be in by Monday at noon.

Do we posters really know ENQ well enough?
If we do, we should be able to project tomorrow's numbers (production and net debt) accurately enough.
So, the challenge for posters is to make such projections to show they understand how the different parts of ENQ interact together in terms of delivering the bottom line. Some people have already provided such projections.

For example, Pelle wrote he expects net debt reduction of $100M. I basically agree with him, but I am going to go for $105M.
On production, Slift, posted the following on 04 May 2021 19:14
"Production for Q1 estimated at 44.5k bopd.
Estimated Production for Q2: 47.5k bopd
Estimated production for Q3: 51.5k bopd
Estimated production for Q4 (including GE): 63.5k bopd"

So for the first 4 months you would get an average slightly under 46Kboepd. Since I am unsure how Magnus is doing, but both Londoner7 and Therapist have expressed optimism about Magnus, my projection, influenced by their views, is for a production figure (as released by ENQ, and which includes the share that Petronas gets in Malaysia and the WI of BP in Magnus) of 46.5Kboepd for the first 4 months.
I also expect RCF repayments of about $75M so far in 2021.

So, my challenge is for people to try to do better than all of us who have put out figures so far.

GLA

Also, it should repay its debt at an accelerated pace. It can surely reach 1HKD. POG's stake in IRC is easily worth $150M if it can keep its production at the level of 2020, going forward.

Yes, it is important to stand up to undeserved remuneration. It is up to each person to decide what that means. I believe in Genel's case it was clear a lot of shareholders would be against the company’s pay policy. there were also sizeable protests against its remuneration report for 2020, plus 2021 share and bonus plans. They did the right thing.

Boyobach, IMHO it was very good to see opposing votes near 40% for some of the proposals.

ATB

january2, i am not miseading anyone. yes, it is true only+2 this week , and -1 last week. but more now that at the same time last year, i am also hearing productivity now is higher, but until we have good estimates it is mostly sparse evidence.
you can go through my posts and read my prediction for US production made many months ago.

does the rig count really matter to ENQ during 2021? no, what matters to ENQ is its daily production coming in in the mid point of the guidance interval when H1 is over.
ATB

hi Therapist,
thank you for that file. well, i understand that in other industries stuff also happens.
if i get the raw production data, i might just treat it nicely. the coefficient of dispersion of the production data is abnormally high. i wondered what does Londoner7 make of your graph and comments. the latter basically tell us stuff happens non-stop with Magnus. will it ever be fixed? i really doubt it: old platform, and the experienced teams in the fields that have gone into CoP are gone. they would be very much needed now.

gkb47, that for reminding me of the company. i will look at it,

onto other matters: another week w/ brent at >$65, good! i am going w/ pelle on a max of $100m of net debt reduction in first 4 months. less than ideal, because there are maintenance shutdowns in late May and June.
keep an eye on tullow's bonds...they offer a very good return, but they are risky... rigs contune to increase. i wrote many times that the shalers will keep going.

GLA

Hi Roxbury,
Thank you. One would expect the floor price of future hedges will be a lot higher. Futures curve is showing Jan22 Brent trading above $65/bbl.
I just want to get info on how wide the two-way collars are going to be. Narrower if they are costless collars. I actually think that TLW could go for collars w/ deferred payment of the premium to make them wider. They cost more, but they would leave more of the upside on the table, and realease money for capex in 2022 and 2023.
ATB

Hello JJ
"What I don't understand is the "normal" decay on existing wells, what is the initial level of production from new wells, and probably most important, what is the probability of failure on new wells (a.k.a. the Turret issue in 2015 or 2016 - can't remember which)."
I do not have technical expertise, but what I have learned over the years, is that the rate of decline varies a lot across different fields, call it geology and type of oil. Important to get data on water cut and gas and water injected to model all this. Intial levels of production of a pair of wells (producer and injector) depend also on a variety of things. I have seen all kinds of numbers but we are talking about a few Kbopd. I have seen in the offshore data 5-6Kbopd, but also often much lower than that.
ATB

Hello Roxbury,
Have the details of the hedging program been released? I am looking to find out how much upside there would be from increases of the oil price. Thank you.
ATB