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Yeah it’s exactly this, and the fact you can build a refinery quicker than a mine that countries will diversify away from China long term. This leaves China with a) accept b) buy up the actual resource! Where they can.

For once, and probable more sheer luck, but I will take that any day. That Atlantic maybe launching into a very competitive market, with geo-political, demand , supply and actual security etc. all coming into play to push hopefully our asset value p further. Let’s see!

Sorry chart…

Well if spud stays in 2-3k range, and the consolidation on the charge keeps going for a while, we will be in for one hell of a pop when ratified.

Spot on as this was December, for IIs

Key Highlights from the Report (as in your excerpt):

• Demand upgrades → Global lithium demand forecast raised to 3.5 million tonnes LCE by 2030 (top-end of consensus), driven by:

• Stronger ESS (energy storage) forecasts, now ~32% of 2026 demand rising to 38% by 2030.

• Higher EV battery sizes, especially commercial vehicles (CVs) in China (e.g., high-density trucks >200 kWh), pushing CVs to 18% of 2026 LCE demand (up from prior estimates) and 25% by 2030.

• Supply response → Increased but delayed; modest restarts (e.g., Bald Hill, Ngungaju in Australia) and potential expansions (e.g., Greenbushes tailings retreatment), leading to wider near/medium-term deficits.

• Price outlook → Raised forecasts amid prolonged incentive pricing:

• Spodumene concentrate → US$2,000/t by 4Q26 (vs. ~$1,100/t spot at the time).

• Lithium carbonate → US$18k/t (vs. ~$13.5k/t spot).

• Stock recommendations → Upgraded all pure-play lithium miners to Overweight (OW):

• Top picks: IGO leading, then PLS, LTR.

• Overall bullish view due to demand outpacing supply response, creating deficits and upside for prices/stocks.

https://x.com/mitchsmithvanc/status/2014406655996318202?s=46&t=gJ40HEpUT4gYZeQiLJHwfw

Https://www.ess-news.com/2026/01/19/chinas-top-regulators-summon-battery-giants-warn-against-below-cost-price-wars-and-disorderly-capacity-build-out/

Meeting Date: January 7, 2026

• China’s Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT), along with the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), State Administration for Market Regulation (SAMR), and National Energy Administration (NEA), convened a symposium to regulate competition in the power and energy storage battery sector.

• The meeting, chaired by MIIT Vice Minister Xin Guobin, included officials from the four agencies, local industry authorities, and 16 companies: 13 battery manufacturers (CATL, BYD, CALB, Gotion High-Tech, EVE Energy, Sunwoda, SVOLT, REPT Battero, Great Power, HiTHIUM, Zhenli, Zhejiang Jiyao Tongxing Energy Technology, Cornex) and 3 system integrators (CRRC Zhuzhou Institute, HyperStrong, Trina Storage).

• Discussions highlighted China’s global leadership in batteries and new-type storage, while addressing “irrational” issues like blind investment, repeated construction, and low-price competition that could distort markets and pose quality/safety risks.

• Key policy directions: Enhanced market supervision (including enforcement against below-cost selling), stricter oversight of production consistency, product quality, and IP protection; improved capacity monitoring with early-warning systems; promotion of industry self-discipline via trade associations; and better central-local coordination to reduce protectionism and support orderly regional planning.

• For the storage battery market, signals suggest a shift toward prioritizing quality over low prices in procurement, higher compliance standards, and accelerated industry consolidation, with potential near-term impacts like inspections and changes in tender evaluations.

• The joint meeting is seen as a strong indication of the Chinese government’s commitment to curbing overcapacity, regulating

Now what will they pay to secure the next two mines?

They can offer us 90p a share I will sell 😃

The cost to run CATL or China lithium mines for lepidolite will be interesting, especially with this reclassification from a clay mine to actual lithium mine and all the overheads incurred now.

When I looked at the Catl mine before and it’s 0.27% lithium. So ewooya is at least 4-5 times more concentrated per ton of soil, and costs roughly half as much to refine. Also lepidolite and the refine process is more damaging to the refinery.

CATL are in a very interesting place. As to keep it open (as it’s usually 1st to shut) so ironically CATL need higher prices, which in turn plays into our value.

Well using the DFS and sensitivity analysis from the company, the figures, well they speak for themselves (noting the 8% discount sensitivity, the company used. Happy if spud trades 1700-2500.

$1,700/t Spodumene Price: ~

US$1.65 billion Asset Value

$1,900/t Spodumene Price: ~

US$1.92 billion Asset Value

$2,100/t Spodumene Price:

US$2.19 billion Asset Value

$2,300/t Spodumene Price:

US$2.46 billion Asset Value

$2,500/t Spodumene Price:

US$2.73 billion Asset Value

$2,700/t Spodumene Price:

US$3.00 billion Asset Value

$2,900/t Spodumene Price:

US$3.27 billion Asset Value

$3,000/t Spodumene Price:

US$3.41 billion Asset Value

Well fancy a bet, a pint of lager spud breaks 2100, and heads to 2500 by end January start of February. 😃

Not sure if posted, Lithium like futures prices increasing due to supply issues.

China's futures exchange has intervened to manage market risks due to lithium's violent price swings, widening the daily trading band to 11% from 9%.

The lithium market has experienced extreme swings due to expectations of ballooning demand for batteries and anxieties over supply, with prices doubling since the start of November.

Guangzhou's spokesperson said they will closely monitor the lithium futures and spot markets and implement targeted risk-control measures to maintain the effective functioning.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-01-21/china-s-lithium-tumult-spurs-futures-exchange-to-step-in-again

Well 12 months for the new government. And in fairness they look to change all mining royalties. So you never know, they pushed 6 days working, turned this around, got their budget sorted for next year. This being a mining country, then. I could see a push, as well as they like catching the opposition off guard. GLA

I actually have a feelimg something is afoot, as the company is extremely quiet, I don’t think this is just the FID work keeping them busy.

Well that’s a bullish flag, so we have chart + , Lithoum +, government +. Shaping up nicely, just the next big move.

I would love after this wait and it would definitely push this sky high 30+, if the government just went straight in 1st week and went let’s get this done! Vote and go, go,go. The market makers would need their underwear changed 😝

Each day parliament sit counts. so extended weeks count, the current government has went to 6 day weeks last year. So expect that, not straight away on return, but fully anticipate it.

I can see the opposite, in fact can see them extending parliament to push it all through. See below, it’s already happening .

https://africa.businessinsider.com/local/markets/africas-top-gold-producer-cancels-long-term-mining-deals-hikes-royalties-as-gold/5rbmpmj

Spod price was heading back up again today as well.

Game on folks , 13.5 in coming

https://www.myjoyonline.com/parliament-to-resume-on-february-3/

Parliament recalled 3rd of February.

https://www.myjoyonline.com/parliament-to-resume-on-february-3/

Winner, winner chicken dinner

Figures based upon what was paid previously for: Historical Chinese Acquisitions in Africa, and joint venture etc. included.

Chinese firms have been the most aggressive buyers of African lithium assets, often paying a premium for 100% control of supply:

Leo Lithium / Ganfeng (Mali): In 2024 and early 2025, Ganfeng Lithium paid a total of US$342.7 million to acquire the remaining 40% of the Goulamina project. This valued the entire project at roughly US$850 million.

Prospect Resources / Huayou Cobalt (Zimbabwe): In 2022, Huayou Cobalt paid US$422 million for the Arcadia project, which had a slightly lower resource grade than Ewoyaa but was closer to production.

Investment Momentum: Chinese engagement in Africa's "Belt and Road" projects surged by 283% in 2025, specifically targeting critical minerals to feed domestic battery production.