Member Info for Krustysmegma

Yes, seems we need all the help we can get just now. Will be an interesting week with BDEV finals tomorrow, RDW Thursday & a trading statement from BKG Friday. Margins are bound to be under pressure, but IMHO more important will be seeing if the order books are still holding up.

Deutsche Bank rates TW "buy", target price 187p

Hi, not invested here but fyi today's Shares Magazine has a two-page feature written by DNL making a case for investment. Can't post a link as it's subscription only. Published within the "Shares Spotlight" section of the mag. K.

Thanks Wigan, I see what you're saying. I'm from a generation where if it looks too good to be true it usually is! Long may this continue!

Wigan,
"From 2019, and subject to shareholder approval each year, the Company will pay an enhanced ordinary dividend of approximately 7.5% of Group net assets, which will be at least £250 million per annum (or c.7.6 pence per share), up from 5% and £150 million. Our Ordinary Dividend Policy is intended to provide an annual return to shareholders that we can reasonably commit to throughout the cycle and so, prior to its announcement, was the subject of prudent and comprehensive stress testing against various downside scenarios which included a 20% reduction in prices and a 30% reduction in volumes." From the 2018 interim report. You're right though, there's no mention of reducing the special dividend, but if "7.5% of Group net assets" are being paid as ordinary dividends it doesn't leave much for special payments. Clearly the company (& it's Chair) thinks it can sustain the current double-digit % dividend level, the market disagrees.

Well I didn't see this coming! Today's drop has erased all the special dividend and most of the interim due November. There had been signals from the company that it would reduce the special dividend & increase normal payments at a sustainable level, I think today's reversal of that message (despite an increase in the special dividend) implies that the management doesn't believe a higher normal dividend is sustainable. I can't think what else would have caused such a kick in the whatnots. Costs are rising but we'd already been told that, it's not news. Volumes are steady, orders at record levels, it's the usual Pete Redfern "steady as she goes" message that we've been used to over recent years. Anyway, it is what it is, I won't be buying any more until I've worked out if this is a short-lived blip or the beginning of another sustained fall like the one that took us below £1.30 fairly recently.

Sympathy due to GAF11, a long-term holder who recently sold out with the intention of buying back in at 0.2. Looked a brave call at the time, may have sold at the lowest point of this cycle. A bit more volume here could see us flying, or of course it could be another false dawn - after all these years, who knows???

gaf11 you're braver than me, good luck with your strategy. My average here is 0.53 so I'm in loss territory too currently, but with all the potential good news to come here I know if I sold the price would instantly rocket & I'd miss out. The other thing is that I consider buying when the price falls, not selling. I've been kicking myself for years for not topping up here the last time the price was at 0.35, I won't miss out a second time.

See my post of 10th June where I forecast this could happen & that I would be prepared. I didn't foresee this level of discounting though - smacks of desperation. My average is 0.53 so had just been clinging on up to this point. Suspect this will drop to the placing price in the morning. Dilemma...to bid or not to bid...

Tony Pidgley selling a 20% reduction in profits as good news over at BKG. They seem determined to use most of their free cash to buy back shares rather than pay dividends, something I sincerely hope doesn't happen here.

Let's hope so, we've been in a very -ive trend for too long IMO.

I can't really understand what people are getting excited about. Just wait for the science to prove itself (or not), then find out if the commercial guys are worth their pay. You can't expect them to sell an untried, untested product that may or may not be the next big thing in finding a cure for cancer. And the NEDs are just that - non-Executives, to ensure good governance. IMHO, we won't be bought out or receive a milestone payment any time soon and we may well need to raise more funds through another placing. In case anyone accuses me of de-ramping, I've been here for more than 8 years, my average is 0.53 & I'm unlikely to be buying or selling any shares for the foreseeable future. I will, however, be making sure I have funds available in the event of a rights issue or open offer. Now, where's my hard hat & ear defenders???

Confirmation this morning of where Woodford's shares ended up. The majority of them anyway. Interesting to know there are II's out there happy to pick up big chunks of TW shares (no doubt) on the cheap.

Thanks TomE, I think it was my2p's comment although the thread is headed gillie 56. I don't have access to any info that's not in the public domain but if I do read anything relating to Woodford's disposals I'll post the link here. I suspect he'll want to keep disposals under the radar as much as possible to protect the interests of his (remaining) investors. There's an article in Shares Magazine today but all it says basically is wait & see what's in the portfolio once he's "completed his reconstruction" then decide whether or not to sell. For info, 5.33% of the portfolio was invested in TW at the last declaration so that represents a fair chunk.

Gosh that puts things in perspective a bit doesn't it? Where did that come from? Living in the countryside, I hear a lot about suicide rates amongst young (and not so young) farmers but I didn't realise the construction industry had such high rates.

I did wonder about this myself my2p. I'm invested in Woodford's EI Fund so am aware of the quoted shares he holds, including the builders. It would be a relatively easy way for him to raise equity so maybe now he's banked the divi he's divesting? As TomE says, no sign of any big sells but the divi only accounts for 10.7 of the drop here, so I'll be keeping a look out for late reported trades tonight/tomorrow. Even if it's not happening, the MMs could have dropped the price in anticipation. Another fine mess you've got yourself into Krusty…!!

Not invested here currently but Shares Magazine tipping this today for the dividend yield:
https://www.sharesmagazine.co.uk/
No doubt this has contributed to the rise. GLA, looks like a good punt to me.

Sierra webcast 12:00 noon today, UK time:
http://investor.sierraoncology.com/events-and-webcasts?item=35

SP still below where it was this time last month, & low volume. Slow burner.

I'd been hoping for a joint suspension with SRRA at lunchtime but the market appears very stable so far. Still under the radar to some extent I think, but that may change through the day - hopefully...