Member Info for Krok

Novinsky acquired the stake from Pinchuk increasing his shareholding from 55% to 83% without even caring to disclose the purchase price, let alone making an offer

Did Pope say anything? They didnt, at least in the public domain

The have a zero bargaining power like the rest of us

Qalbabbass, why agree for 85% when he can get all of it?)) why pay taxes from his dividends when there may be other ways not to))

This is a joke. But in Russian we have a proverb saying that every joke has a piece of truth in it;)

70 mn cash pile + 3p divi

Still my hope

Bulldog, good to see someone who really understands how things work in this part of the world

Though, I agree with you in general, I tend to disagree with you re ENW

Novinsky appears to be a better person than an average Ukrainian oligarkh)) He is a truly religious person, look at his personal telegram channel - it is all about God and religion

Regarding schemes, there are three options where Smart Energy (SE) can steal money from ENW:

1) Transfer pricing. SE purchases 100% of ENW’s gas
2) Inflate drilling costs by using affiliated contractors
3) Sell assets to ENW above their fair value

Out of three, I think number 3 is somewhat relevant - that what’s happened when SE sold PEP to ENW a few years ago

This risk is still on the agenda as SE may transfer its asset UGV to ENW and get all cash out of ENW. Or even make ENW borrow more cash. That’s real

On #1 and #2, I dont think they steal much, if at all. Can easily be checked

CAD and to a lesser extent JKX are good (or rather awful) examples of what you said. ENW appears to be a slightly better (by Ukrainian standards)

The real issue with Ukraine as a country is that it is on the brisk of default

It has not defaulted yet mostly because of new IMF loans. But larger and larger portions of new loans are needed simply to service the existing debt

It can not continue this way forever but so far so good

This has nothing to do with Ukraine. Crimea has not been an issue for many years now

People just try to find any explanation but it is irrelevant

Ukraine is much better than most African or Middle East jurisdictions. Way better

What has happened to the share price most recently is just ridiculous

Gas prices are set to stay high for most of 2021, at least

Production is to stay relatively stable throughout the year, with only minor decline by year end (unlike JKX)

FCF of $25-30 mn for the year is pretty much guaranteed

Cash by year end - $85-90mn (before dividends, if any)

Most peers have increased substantially in terms of share price

Plenty of clowns on twitter praising JKX for its growing cash pile. Some even trying to guestimate by which date its cash equals its market cap, if JKX “keeps adding $5-6 mn a quarter”

Long-story short – not any time soon

Actually, JKX has serious troubles to consistently generate cash. It is only able to do it under one of the two scenarios:

1) Invest a lot of money into capex like it did in 2H19, have a boost in production. The issue is that production growth is a very short-lived one; or
2) Skip capex, like it seems to have done in 2H2019, but then production decline accelerates

Both of the two scenarios are bad for JKX. The first one is bad because JKX would spend heavy amounts on capex but get very short-term production spike. The second one – because the depletion rates are high. In 4Q20 alone, it was 8%, in the last six quarters – 30%. You cash increases short-term but your core business starts dying

In all other cases, the free cash flow is negative, mostly due to the depletion of Ukrainian fields, which require a lot for money simply to maintain production. This is what happened in 1H19 and 1H20 – go check the numbers

Another 8% production drop in 1Q21 and the Ukrainian production would touch 4k. In 2Q21, the production will most likely sink below 4k. The share price will sink accordingly. Below 20p, I reckon

Unless JKX makes a miracle, like it did in mid-2019. Can it? Pretty unlikely

Regarding presentation, the board doesn't care. We are left to our own devices here, just need to accept it. It it reflected in the share price

It just can occidentally occur that what the company does is also favorable for minorities

Re cash, Novinskiy will need it sooner or later. Hopefully, that will be via dividends, not via some dodgy schemes like transfer pricing or M&A

No, they didbt. Out of this $8mn, they paid $4 mn a year ago. This quarter they will have paid only $2 mn, and the remainder - one year from now

The well was a disappointment and to an extent a waste of ENW money

Ok, we move one

Next big thing is cash post 1Q and divi

If ENW hasnt spent much on its newly spudded well, the cash shall exceed $70 mn

3p divi would make me happy, the share price shall be 35-40p on these two news

Thordon, You are talking nonsense. Sorry, have no interest to argue more than once with someone who have no clue and who continues to persist with his crap

Agagah, clown Sid continues to re-post my thoughts on twitter

Sid, come in here and I prove to you that you have no clue

Yes, 452 boepd is value destructive for shareholders, this well has a negative NPV

Hence the share price reaction. It is not the market which is silly, it is you who is an over-optimistic idiot

If you dont understand the basics, you should refrain from losing your money on stock market

Pretty mediocre, unfortunately

Like I said previously, this has not even replaced the production decline. Current production is ca. 4.6 kboepd

And with such a low initial flow rate, this well will not pay back the cost of drilling

ENW is no more a growth stock like it was in 2016-2018. But it can be a good value stock if it starts paying dividends

Ask price is 26.4p, couple of pennies away from 52w high

As I said, expect well news in early March and divi announcement in April

The well is apparently still being tested, as we speak

For divi, they need results of 1Q at least, I reckon. Plus, gas prices forecast post this super harsh winter

The divi is anyway approved by the GSM, which is when, in June?

This is plain wrong. Novinsky doesnt care about the share price. Why should he?

Whether it’s 25p or 50p, there is no difference for him

Too many short-term catalysts not to try and make money on. Limited downside in the current price environment

That’s exactly what I said - ENW’s update was a disappointment, JKX’s - a disaster

ENW production dropped by 7% in a year, JKX’s - by 8% in 4Q

If JKX’s production drops another 8% in 1Q21, they would need gas prices to be 55% higher than in 2Q19 simply to have the same revenue

Re three times larger profit, you should definitely check your math

Those interested/invested in JKX, please see my latest post in JKX thread

Sid, please repost it on twitter, will you?

Very silent in here compared to ENW and even to CAD. Not sure why

In mid January JKX reported its latest operational update, which was a disaster. No one here or on twitter seems to have noticed it. Seems like people can’t put two and two other together and see only what they would like to see

The huge issue JKX is experiencing a sharp decline in its Ukrainian production. They try to mask it by referring to total production but that does not make any sense. Their Russian production hardly breaks even

It is Ukrainian production which only matters, as it brings 90%+ of JKX’s bottom line

What they produced in Ukraine, in boepd per respective quarter

4Q20 - 4,351
3Q20 - 4,727
2Q20 - 4,963
1Q20 - 5,361
4Q19 - 5,731
3Q19 - 6,217

So, for the last 1,5 years, Ukrainian production dropped by 30%, despite JKX’s investments in capex

In 4Q20 alone, the production declined by 8%. It is huge

JKX’s most recent well and workover were waste of money, brought no results

It is well known that the quality of JKX fields in Ukraine is poor, as they are severely depleted. Have been in production for several decades

In 2019, JKX seemed the have been able to reverse the trend in production decline but now it appears to have been a short lived

Still dreaming of 60p? You will not see it any time soon