Member Info for Krok

Gazprom is expected toG

Regarding gas supplies, you need to understand a few things

Until recently, Gazprom supplied a bulk of its gas to Europe under long-term contracts with a gas price formula, which was linked to a basket of oil products. Normally, with a six month time lag

That guaranteed stability of gas prices for all - both for Gazprom and for consumers

When gas prices dropped, most European customers insisted they would buy gas from Gazprom at spot prices. Contracts were amended. For some time that benefited Gazprom's clients, as spot prices were on a lower side

All changed in 2021, once there is a shortage of gas in Europe, not least because of a substantial demand increase in Asia

Currently, 60-70% of Gazprom's exports to Europe are sold at spot prices. Given supply constraints, it dawned on Gazprom very quickly that all they need to do is to decrease supplies by 10-20% and that will result in 100-200% increase in gas prices. Very shrewd of them, in my view

That's exactly what they have done to boost Gazprom's bottom line. As a result, this will be a record year for Gazprom. Have a look at its share price. I wish we had a similar pattern for our small cap Ukrainian gas peers

There are no constraints on gas production in Russia. Gazprom, Novatek, Rosneft and few other companies can all increase gas production immediately, if needed

Hey, OfficerFigby

I am in, both in ENW and JKX. Approximately 50/50 currently, given most recent increase in JKX

Both stocks are at ridiculously low levels, given where gas prices are. ENW should trade at 60p, as a bare minimum

We should get 6 months financials any time soon, hopefully, this week. Then, there's SV well announcement this month. Expect some boost in the share price, as a result

Seems that nobody cares about this and a few other similar stocks any longer

At current gas prices the stock should trade at 60p minimum

In late 2018-early 2019 it touched 60p three times, all at much lower gas prices and similar or lower production

Now it is like a walking dead

Nothing but a wishful thinking

My understanding is that with 75%+ stake you can delist an AIM company at any time

Oldholder, you are trying to position Novinskiy as a white knight saving poor minorities. He is not, by any chance

Back in 2012, he couldn’t but pay 42p or 54p or whatever it was. That was a completely different game in a completely different environment

Now, in 2021, he can choose whatever price he sees fit to buy you out. You will have to accept anyway

But he won’t, in my view

Fenm, I think he will not choose to de-list any time soon. Why should he?

Dividend in 2021 is highly unlikely. ENW’s capex is going to be $40-50 mn in the next 12 months. The cash pile will decrease, as a result. No room for the dividend under the circumstances

The production is going to decrease throughout the year, this doesn’t support the divi either

In 2020, JKX drilled 3 wells and 2 sidetracks in Ukraine; also performed 13 workovers there. The result is a loss of 28% of production.

In 2021, three more quarters like 1Q (12% drop) and 4Q production would be a lousy 2.5 kboepd. JKX might become loss making at these levels

Is the loss of key producing well also a loss of hope for JKX?

Ukraine production of 3,843 in Q1 2021 is 12% lower due to the loss of IG142 which produced an average of 321 boepd in Q1 2021 before it stopped producing in the middle of February

IG142 lost, IG146 failed. Next is IG149

All you need to know about the quality of JKX’ remaining reserves in Ukraine:

IG146 was completed to the Devonian in Ignativske and encountered 2.6m of logged net hydrocarbon bearing thickness. After initially testing at an oil rate of 497 bopd and a gas rate of 35 Mcmd in November the rate declined and the well is currently producing 6 Mcmd of gas (35 boepd).

Naive, very naive))

With the shareholding Novinsky has he can delist it any time. At half the price you offered. And you will have to accept

What’s your bet if the well they are drilling is dry and 2Q production falls by another 12% down to 3.3 kboepd?

CAD is a scam, dont touch it. Sell it if you own while it it reasonably high

JKX - another disappointment, one in a row

Huge volumes in the last few days. Once the buyer disappears, the share price will likely go back to 20-ish

Need the results of the spudded well, plus 2Q production

If the well is dry and production is 3.3 kboepd (another 12% drop from 1Q), 20p will be n aspirational target

Baron at some point claimed he had over 1% stake in ENW and a large chunk in VGAS. And then JKX, yes

He then stopped mentioning ENW and VGAS but never confirmed that he had sold

JKX have been his last baby. It let him down as well))

Baron was a hero here a couple of years ago. Where are all his worshippers now? Why so silent?

It is now on the front page of Ukrnafta website

Oldholder, your link proves it is way more complicated and far away from being over. CEO then is lying in the interview

Some Ukrainian politicians and the prosecutor clearly want to void the court decision

Doesnt sound right, particularly given ENW already paid over $6 mn

And a few thoughts on Arkona:

- risk of losing $15 mn if the 1st well is unsuccessful
- in case of success, no immediate impact on production and cashflow, as there is no infrastructure on the field. Will need to shut down the well till the pipeline(s) connect it to the processing plant
- most importantly, do not understand why they burn their money on this new (i.e. risky) asset when they have 28 mmboe of proved and 50 mmboe of proved and probable reserves on the existing fields

The existing 1P and 2P reserves cover 16 and 30 years of the current production. Why not develop these reserves, which have lower risks?

Interview of Sergey Glazunov, CEO of Smart Energy and ENW (in Russian, requires an e-mail to get full text):

https://nv.ua/biz/markets/biznes-novinskogo-kak-uvelichivaet-dobychu-gaza-kompaniya-smart-energy-intervyu-s-sergeem-glazunovym-50154276.html?code=64831f7a-027c-41f7-9f8b-6309506bf5a7&fbclid=IwAR1VxYfDVwW2x0KwzWIuH7hmTuGnNdFqE5umXRdQID4VzH5XgBihjw0Towo

Key conclusions:

- 2021 production flat at best, likely to decline
- drilling one well, will spud two more in 2021 (one on Askona field)
- plans to shut down a gas processing unit in 2H21 to boost production of LPG in 2022
- no plans to merge UGV and ENW
- Askona legal battle is over

My takeaways:
- Production will decline, particularly due to the shutdown in 2H
- capex of $45-50 mn in the next 12-15 months
- substantial decrease in cash, down to maybe $40 mn
- no dividends
- impact on production from new drilling remains to be seen
- boost in LPG production is good but it will materialize in 1H22

All-in-all, no positive developments in the next 8-9 months. Gas prices can help a bit

The share price will likely stay flat or decrease somewhat throughout 2021

Thordon, 20p, my dear, 20p on screeb. Have a look)

No need even for another quarter like this

If the well they have just spudded is dry as the case was with a previous one and a sidetrack, and on top of that 2Q production falls below 3.5 kboepd, the share price will be 15p

And you can scream as much as you’d like about what a great company it is

You can call me whatever you like but I make decent money out of here while you have been sitting for years mumbling all your nonsense and increasing your losses