Member Info for Krok

The right thing for them to do would be to pay out dividends and then for a majority shareholder being a citizen of Ukraine to donate his own funds to whomever he likes

For a UK listed company making such generous contributions in the absence of any dividends is not right

All their operational issues are well known for a long time. Nothing new here

Cash is being taken away by the majority shareholder via receivables, which will, likely, grow further

Receivables are in hryvnas, hryvna has devaluated significantly and will continue to devaluate further

So even it is repaid later, in US$ dollar terms it will be less than at a time of the gas sale

Another issue is charity costs, US$ 5 mn for the 1st half 2022. Not right for a public company

This is a good article in Forbes on why there will be no war between Russia and Ukraine and what each party is trying to achieve

Get it translated

https://www.forbes.ru/finansy/450419-delo-ne-v-sankciah-pocemu-vojny-rossii-s-ukrainoj-ne-budet

Russia is trying to achieve a very similar objective

We do whatever we like to do on our own territory and we don’t give a sh@t if somebody doesn't like it

Then a majority of population instead of thinking about internal issues Russia is facing starts thinking about “an external enemy”, which threatens Russia

Of course, not

The US is frightening Russia with harsh sanctions in case of invasion

They will then say: you see, this has worked perfectly well, Russia is now afraid and that’s why they’ve changed their mind

When, in reality, nobody has ever thought about it in the first place

In ENW case, cash balance is only relevant when you take into account their accounts payable

They could easily have $30-40 mn due to their contractors for drilling of several wells, plant upgrade, 3D, etc

If that is the case, once it is settled in early 2022, cash is back to $60-70 mn

So we need more details to confirm cash really increased

That said, we have up to minus 25 degrees Celsius in Moscow this week

Allegedly, up to minus 15 in Kiev

Below zero pretty much everywhere across Northern and Central Europe

Gas prices are over $2000/mcm, as we speak

I always laughed when people here and on Twitter screamed ENW would trade at 1 pound

But f@ck me, that’s what we truly deserve in this price environment. If the governance was ok

Water ingress in gas wells is like stage four cancer - not many survive

Perhaps, 15-20% success rates in countries with cutting edge medicine. And only 5-10% in countries like Ukraine or Russia

So if they have to shutdown these two wells altogetger, they would need to successfully drill two new wells just to get the the previous production levels

It will take them 1,5 years and cost another $30mn

Not to mention missed revenue during the drilling period

Re water inflow, it is very bad for gas wells, in general

Once gas is mixed with water, it is dissolved in it and you can’t do much about it

For oil wells you can produce liquid which is 80-90% water. You would then separate water at your oil preparation unit and put it back via injection wells to maintain reservoir pressure

That increases your opex but at least it is easily doable

You can separate associated gas if needed, when it is only a fraction of your overall fluid volume

But when your main product, gas, is dissolved in water, there are no easy solutions. They haven’t disclosed enough information to judge what actually happened.

Would not be surprised that was a way to suppress the share price before making an offer. At a low price, of course

OfficerFigby, I am still holding but getting more and more nervous every day

I have a sizable chunk, over 600k shares in this stock. Not easy to liquidate even if I wanted to

My average purchase price is slightly above 25p, so I should not lose money here even if goes the bad direction

Still, I hoped it would at least double. Or better triple. Nothing extraordinary in this price environment

Oldholder, re past experience it is only partly relevant

In general, Ukrainian oligarkhs would not miss a chance to seize an opportunity to get something cheaply

We are in the best ever environment for fas producers. Gas prices are 15+ times higher than what they were just recently

ENW’s share price is half of what it was in 2018

Oldholder, You are right re VGAS but at least in that deal Baring Vostok suffered the same

That was a full takeover by a third party

So JKX was the first one

Now is Zoltav in Russia - pretty much the same approach, i.e. an offer at current market price, once it halved. The shareholder controlling almost 90%, same as in ENW

Who may be next?

ENW is definitely on the list of candidates

Alongside PTR and CAD, I reckon

Perfect moment to rip off minority shareholders of junior oil and gas co’s

Meanwhile, gas prices are growing again on latest NS2 pipeline news

It is all b/s, not more than a joke

Russia’s got all what it needed from Ukraine:
- Crimea, first and utmost
- Instability in Donbass
- Weakness of Ukrainian economy

There is not a single reason for Russia to even consider invading Ukraine. Just makes no sense whatsoever

This nonsense shall disappear from news soon like it happened on several similar occasions in the past

Dust has settled a bit. Time to start growing again

There was a battle between two Ukrainian oligarkhs - Pinchuk and Novinskiy. The latter finally won having paid 38p per share

The company experienced issues with its core licenses, production was halted at some point.

Back then 38p represented 200+ per cent premium to share price before the offer

The previous board and management led by Paul Davies had fought with Kolomoiskiy for several years but finally lost

The new board seems just to do what they are told

Before joining JKX board, Tony Alves had played a pivotal role in selling Volga Gas for peanuts having screwed the minority shareholders similarly

JKX should by now have $60+ mn of cash

Their Russian asset is worth $30-40 mn, so it is already $100 mn

This equals to the implied mcap in this dodgy tender offer

So they get all the Ukrainian assets for free

Tge value of 10% stake is UNB is another $30-40 mn and the only realistic buyer is Kolomoiskiy/Bogoslavsky & Co

What a shame

They have been holding their 7% stake for ages. I reckon they know Novinsky well

Can they be our protection if he decides to go JKX’s way?