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Hi Gdog,
Wholly agree with you.
Supporting Rusty's reasonable comment and my own view point as per the technical price trend facts as outlined- no other agenda. I don't really comment on these chat boards but watch for comments stocks that I own, always interesting.
I use both fundamentals and Technicals as part of my investing style. Simply, Technicals show sentiment/momentum support for a stock or not between management reports about the business - charts paint a picture of current and potential future trends based on fundamentals.
For myself, Fundamentals always first and let the price to the rest as long as Earnings and Cashflows are following through. Trained as a technical analyst by exam -habitual reviewing style. Offering a view point on what to expect from the price trend.
Best regards.
I am a LTH- been through the wars with it and thankfully, back in profit once more.
DYOR---Purely on a technical basis, I had recently posted that we have an inverse head and shoulders pattern, iHS, in the weekly chart that would find support around 675 to 725 but trend must hold this price band pattern, which generates a target at 860-900p from the iHS. These patterns are generally reliable as part of the on going investor sentiment, but just that- a price pattern that can fail!
Further, looking at the weekly chart, the 40 week Simple Moving Average, SMA, peaked at 410p on 23/3/2018; today its at 370p. The current uptrend if maintained around 700p, has the 40 week SMA rising at ~ 3p a day or 15p a week.
The difference 410-370 =40p, that means 40/3 ~ 14 trading days before the 40 week SMA is at a potential new high. In trading days, this gives May 11th as a key technical day for a significant start of a price break out-assuming that there is no major price deterioration (below ~650p)or change in fundamentals. All we can infer, pre-any new information from the company is that, the price momentum of the 40WSMA supports the price action and fundamental from the company and a rising price trend that will seek to exceed 760p+.
For what its worth, Initial target from the iH&S 860/900 from mid-May, but look towards GBP10 as around number to be tested as a major resistance level. DYOR on chart. Based on these type of technical observations, ahead of the target date of mid-May, we can anticipate that the price will be near or above recent 760 high. Price is always anticipatory to confirming fundamental news flows in the coming period from the company.
In the interim, potentially ahead of more good news, lets see how the Technical Factors play out.
I posted this yesterday following Max19 comments and updated a few points to reflect today’s’ strong close. Please DYOR don’t rely on my opinion and information.
I am a holder, IMO, based only on price interpretation, I note in the daily chart
• an inverse Head and Shoulders Pattern formation that has broken out via a gap up of the 700p neckline. Should 700p hold as the key near term support and the price follows through on this price breakout, with upside volume, anticipate a target around 910p/920p--- i.e. approx. 700-487=213+700=913p. Head and Shoulders patterns are generally reliable- but they are just that- a investor sentiment pattern with well-known traits.
• Secondly, eye balling the weekly chart, I calculate that if the rate of momentum spread, ROC, (the difference) between the 10 week SMA (589) and 40 week SMA (314) is maintained, it’s the widest momentum spread currently and that I have seen for Tremor, the technical target in late May could be around 865. In theory this lends its support for the potential direction for price per the iH&S pattern outlined.
• As you all appreciate, price trends are always mean reverting, look at Tremor through the lens of today’s Bollinger Chart where the 1Sigma line, 20SMA is at todays close at 603p and rising post a decent consolidation and breakout from the inverse head and shoulders pattern. Perhaps this offers rising support nearer 600p and upper band nearer 717p and the Monday opening gap at 660p---hopefully the gap won't be closed/filled and offer strong support. A new closing all time high is always welcome.
• Gaps that do not get filled show momentum strength in the price trend. I am intrigued with the price gaps/breakouts late Dec and early Jan this year and the breakaway gap on Monday that is supportive of the pattern under consideration and the higher predicted price target-I surmise at that a 'run away gap' may yet be observed/materialise on good fundamental news. All said, time will tell. Needless to say, best to rely on improving fundamentals of FCF and earnings for 2021/22, that's what drives price and investor demand, the Technicals are useful to provide perspective.
• My technical caution is that we are a tad overbought and price consolidation as per the moving averages table would be welcome as we head above 800p.
• Despite a good close, volume was a tad weaker today, ideally it should have been 600K+ OB. That said, the data is still excellent, for the week we have volume 18% higher vs last weeks volume and for the month of March trading volume is UP + 72% M.o.M and that has been true for 6 months running which shows that the shares are under accumulation and of course, supported by the share buyback---ALL GOOD READING FOR NEW GAINS post a little consolidation.
• Interestingly, I suspect that during late April, once the 40 week SMA breaks 375p, currently ~315p---the stock will trend closer to 900p and this is based on the current price trend and nothing more.
Many thanks Farruggia.
I know what you mean. I always know when a post is rather bearish because someone has lost money! Investing always brings out interesting psychological characteristics good and bad in us which we should learn from. The stock market will always find your weakness and humble you- by the way, and honestly, my worst humbling is always from my wife! So, the stock market by comparison is a doddle! If we all invested by rules vs. the expectations of overnight riches, we would be better off mentally , at the bank and more importantly not be wasting good metal energy on some of the worthless chats that I often see and just skip over. These individuals need to accept losses-they happen. Its not all about winning and losing - I always teach that in investing the Keys to the Kingdom is to know how much you will invest with a stop loss-that is it-every thing else that you do is trade management which includes research, technical analyses, whatever else that you may wish to do etc. if most of the sore bloggers Cut their losses---ran their winners they would be happier. Instead they persist with the negative mental burden rather than moving on to a positive investment-long or short- that will enrich their portfolio.
I also know that Hope is a slippery slope in investing if you don't have a stop loss. If some commentators' have not learned than perhaps they should know this-- Hope is firmly shut in Pandora's Box! This is not meant to be a sermon, perhaps it should be practical common sense for us all. I have been doing this for 35 years and I make investing mistakes which I happily own with a stop loss and I known my risk to reward. There is no use posting negative comments unless there is genuine reasons. Like many here, I am a rule based investor and I get stocks wrong despite following rules, but I live to invest profitably for another day. Have a good evening, my best wishes to you to.
Hi Max19 , my first post ever, I am a holder, agree with your price comment. IMO, based only on price interpretation, I note in the daily chart, an inverse Head and Shoulders Pattern formation that has broken out via a gap up of the 700p neckline. Should 700p hold as the key near term support and the price follows through on this price breakout, with upside volume, anticipate a target around 910p/920p--- i.e. approx. 700-487=213+700=913p. Head and Shoulders patterns are generally reliable- but they are just that- a investor sentiment pattern with well known traits. Secondly, eye balling the weekly chart, I calculate that if the rate of momentum spread, ROC, (the difference) between the 10 week SMA (589) and 40 week SMA (314) is maintained, its the widest momentum spread currently and that I have seen for Tremor, the technical target in late May could be around 865. In theory this lend its support for the potential direction for price per the iH&S pattern outlined. As you well appreciate, price trends are always mean reverting, look at Tremor through the lens of a Bollinger Chart where the 1Sigma line, 20SMA is at 595 and rising post a decent consolidation and perhaps this offers rising support nearer 600p and upper upper band nearer 687 and the Monday opening gap at 660---hopefully the gap won't be closed and offer strong support. I am intrigued with the price gaps/breakouts last Dec and Jan this year and the breakaway gap on Monday that is supportive of the pattern under consideration-I surmise at that a 'run away gap' may yet be observed/materialise on good fundamental news. All said, time will tell. Need less to say, best to rely on improving fundamentals of FCF and earnings for 2021/22, that's what drives price and investor demand, the Technicals are useful to provide perspective. I am always pleased to see LTSH making money and hopefully, management will deliver-its been an interesting journey for 2+ years!