Ben Richardson, CEO at SulNOx, confident they can cost-effectively decarbonise commercial shipping. Watch the video here.
DYOR,
The operational positives remain in place and good overall execution from management. The provision made is from the DoJ’s anti-competitive practices, with now the civil cases by individual States, the direct purchasers, and indirect payors. This should draw a line on current ligation. These plaintiffs have submitted their claims and as I understand it, Indivior is in mediation to attempt to settle before the 18th Sept 2023 court case. The potential provision, $290M, will hopefully be less and bring closure to these outstanding litigations.
Indivior delivered the anticipated financial performance in 2022. Sales for the year rose ~14% to $901m. A 67% increase in sales of Sublocade to $408m with the moderation in the US sales of Suboxone film at ~$322m, -10%.
Adj. operating profits for 2022 rose ~ 13% to $212m and adj. EPS rose 26% to $1.16. The hoard of net cash and investments on 31 December 2022 was at $751m. In 4Q 2022, Sublocade sales ~$117M vs 4Q2021 @$ ~$75M up +56%. Perseris sale $8M vs 4Q2021 @ 45M +60%. For 4Q 2022 total sales are $241 vs. $221 ~9% up y.o.y, driven by Sublocade sales.
Guidance from the B.o.D for 2023 has revenues expectation in the range of $950M-1,020M ~+9%, with Sublocade sales of $550-600m ~+41% should help drive margins. Perseris sales range of $45-55m ~82%+ With the operating margin expected to increase. On-going sales and margin growth remain in situ for the next 3-5 years as a unique healthcare provider.
Hopefully things will settle and good execution will have the financials support
Hi idkmybffjill,
You may find this worth a read and helpful;
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4570728-indivior-healthy-defensive-in-a-difficult-economy?
ATB
K
Thanks BetterX for the update.
I don’t know the answers, perhaps we will be more informed around the 4Q results or pre the listing investor brief/RNS.
1. Will INDV issue new shares for the US listing to create the American Depository Shares, ADS, which means the share count goes up? The current buyback mitigates some of the new issuance of shares for the US listing.
2. Or will the custodian bank, like BNY, simply create the ADS from existing GBP shares for a $ equivalent?- share count stays the same.
3. How many GBP shares are to make up one ADS?- Typically I have noticed 2(UK):1 (US) - at the minimum.
If new shares are to be issued, scenario one, it explains the current buy back and I suspect a further new buyback program may be approved post the US listing. This may limit a dividend payment for another year. Equally so, the BoD could do both, as cash flow is not an issue and to attract the income seeking funds to the table.
We can find out in due course as the listing information is disclosed in a US prospectus. All options are attractive pre/post listing should a buyback program remains in place to shrinking the share count, enhancing shareholder value and this raises reported EPS.
BR
K
Hi Pinfinder,
HNY.
The link to the Jefferies upgrade enclosed.
https://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/1002410/indivior-target-price-hiked-after-company-raises-forecast-for-depot-opioid-addiction-treatment-1002410.html
Nice and steady- you never know, your prediction may come true.
Have a good year!
All the best
K
Hi All and thank you BetterX for your points.
DYOR, here’s what I have for my summary of today’s results; I believe a positive set of results and outlook for the balance of 2022 into 2023. Indivior beat for the two periods, 2Q/First Half (H1), good sales growth 2Q/H1 @ $221M/$428M up 10%/12% respectively, operating profits ~$63M/$117M respectively down for the period 14%/10%, but adjusted profits $60/$114 due to exceptional items, see RNS table. Also, the company increased its capital investment in sales and R&D ($80-M-$85M). All positive fundamentals for future growth.
Considering Valuation; The shares are on approx. 8.7X ~ 9 X FY22 EV/EBITDA and steady growth are driven by demand to treat the addicted. This growth is not dependent on macroeconomic conditions or a major concern about a looming recession as the company provides a unique healthcare service with its peer group.
For 2022- Rev ~$891M, EBITDA ~$225M, EV/Sales ~ 2.2X, EV/EBITDA ~8.9X, Op margins ~23.4%
For 2023 – Rev ~$903M, EBITDA ~232M, EV/Sales ~2X, EV/EBITDA ~7.9X. Op Margins ~24%
C.F.
For 2021 Rev $791M, EBITDA $203.5M, EV/Sales 2.65X, EV/EBITDA 10.1X. Op Margins 23.6%
Despite some Suboxone competition, operating margins remain steady and look to improve closer to 24% as Sublocade guidance moves higher for 2022/23. Interestingly, the company stated that - ‘Adjusted gross margin expected to be in the low- to mid-80% range (unchanged vs. prior guidance), reflecting higher cost inflation and the relative share resilience of SUBOXONE Film in the first half of 2022’
Price target- It’s not inconceivable based on the multiples above and earnings improvement that we may see a share price closer to 360p-400p over the next twelve-month frame. In a tough market environment, a healthcare provider of this calibre that dispenses key treatment to the addicted may see a PE multiple expansion and a 360p-400p target is not unreasonable on managements guided fundamentals expectations. Buy on weakness for the next 12 months.
Management Expectations have been Guided higher on Sublocade, and strong positive that the sector is resilient to weakening economic conditions. Guidance on Sublocade is between $390M-$420M in sales and that could push EPS closer to 20cents vs 19.25 cents for 2022, it’s higher and better as rising earnings and share prices are correlated. Sublocade sales were $98M in 2Q ~ +61%, whilst Suboxone Film maintained a steady 19% market share.
Net Cash remains at ~ $775m, Gross cash & investments $1.01Bn, with the $100M buyback, that's ~37% through and provides stock support for the balance of the year, with further listing news into 4Q 2022. Future Potential, AEF0117 for the treatment of cannabis disorder with its partner Aelis has started a Phase 2b study as of Q2 2022. Management is executing well.
VBR
K
Hello Pinfinder,
Thank you, all is well. I very much trust that I find you in good form and the golf is enjoyable!
Have a look at the link below, you may find it useful for a general overview. Indivior has a falling neckline, price pattern formations are not always textbook, but all the same, in the near-term, this iH&S pattern may prove bullish for the price trend.
https://www.investopedia.com/terms/i/inverseheadandshoulders.asp
As mentioned, should we break and close above 334p initially and the next minor resistance is 338p on rising volume, that opens up the target toward 370p. I am 90% fundamentals and 10% technical/sentiment-based. I would expect a potential price break out as sentiment on Indivior remains positive, with the RSI above 65.
A stalwart healthcare name in a bear market. I am enjoying the journey and looking toward 400p later this year on growing positive fundamentals for the sector and of course, the news on the company's US listing. Very excited to see the price back at 330p+ which is what we had expected last year as management executes their business strategy and delivers to plan. Once we get past this September and the company remains on track, analysts may have to review their earnings and price targets upwards for 2023 and the forward expectations of the multiples should support the 400p price target, see table below. In the interim, I am happy with a price target in the vicinity of 370p+.
Rev $M EBITDA $M EPS (Cents) Net cash $M EV/Sales (X) EV/EBITDA (X)
2022E 864 221 19-19.5 948 2.4 9.35
2023E 902 235 20-20.25 1,055 2.3 8.75
Some excellent and informative comments from Corradus and BetterX- Thank you chaps.
Be well and have a ball on the green!
VBR
KP
Dear All,
DYOR.
Price Observation-Potential Inverse Head and Shoulders Pattern.
There is a reasonably formed Inverse Head and Shoulders, iH&S, price pattern formation for Indivior. The pattern has good bullish reliability for price target forecasting.
The guide target is 373. See below.
FYI-as of 12.5.2022- the price low 277.80p, price to Neckline 327.79, difference ~50p. The breakout price level on the Neck-Line is 322.80p -the high of 23.5.2022. Target 322.80p +50p = 372.80 ~373p. A price close above 338p from 14.4.2022, provided momentum and volume rises, i.e. RSI above 65, could see the iH&S pattern achieve its target towards 370p+. Near term a price close above 334 or the high of 29.4.2022 is important. The price gap between the 19th May, close, -20th May, open, does provide a zone of support.
Fundamentals and price technicals are both aligned to achieve a price breakout on strong volume.
VBR to you all.
KP
Hi Pinfinder,
Thank you, I trust all is well with you.
I have been keeping a close tab for many years on the stock and topped up recently as the price action improved. I do believe post-Covid treatments will continue to accelerate and indeed the expectations for the arena of operations are vitally important to help the addicted and society. I am looking forward to 2H 2022 news flows from the company which will hopefully support the share price.
I trust that you have been enjoying yourself and keeping fit on the golf course!
Be well
VBR
KP
Hi ALSH,
DYOR
Aside from the stalwart underlying fundamentals. I also note the strong technical price setup and breakout. As of today, the price closed at a new high on a 160% increase in above-average volume. With that, we have money flows into the stock i.e. new positions being initiated and we also have a new high in the 52-week relative strength, (this is not an RSI indicator reading), which bodes well for further near-term price gains to 320p at a minimum and we should be on track for 330p+ where initial broker targets were and now raised above 360p+. Overall a good alignment between fundamentals and technicals.
All good.
VBW
KP
Sorry All,
the date below---should be 15th/12/21 not 15/12/22
IMO, the current share price may be slightly held back ahead of Camurus, expecting FDA approval of Brixadi around 15th/12/21, its long acting buprenorphine injectable - if approved it will launch during 1Q/2Q 2022. See https://www.camurus.com/pipeline/
Hi LTSH,
DYOR.
IMO, the current share price may be slightly held back ahead of Camurus, expecting FDA approval of Brixadi around 15th/12/22, its long acting buprenorphine injectable - if approved it will launch during 1Q/2Q 2022. See https://www.camurus.com/pipeline/
IMO, this price weakness is a good opportunity to add to positions with the support of the tailwind from the buy back as fundamentals for the sector and company have not changed. The market is large enough for both these company products to grow available treatment and the fundamentals for Indivior are back on track with a focused management.
Sublocade revenues should continue to expand as there are approximately, as I understand it, over 10M opioid users in the USA, of which some 3M are diagnosed with an opioid disorder and 550,000+ are being treated with drugs like Sublocade (monthly dose) or Suboxone (film) based on severity of their addiction. The bottom-line is that, there is room for other treatments and Sublocade will still be heading towards $1Bn in sales. My view is that Camurus will be rational and will not launch a price war because it makes no sense for them or Indivior to do so because its critical/vital patient treatment and well being. Also, post Covid, as treatment clinics open up, the demand for treatments will rise in the US and globally.
Other catalyst--Perseris for for schizophrenia--US market value approx. $3bn, will continue to grow for Indivior and their sales force is doubling from 50 to 100 in the coming year. We should have the news on the start of Ph IIb trials of AEF0117, Indivior/Aelis Pharma partnership, for the treatment of cannabis psychosis and this problem is only growing as many US states and other countries liberalise laws on the legal use of cannabis. Hopefully by Late 2023, AEF0117 may be approved but we can monitor the news flow.
VBR
K
Hi Pinfinder,
This provision is not related to the DOJ case. That's firmly behind us.
My understanding, the provision, total of $73M, I believe is related to generic pharma manufacturer Dr. Reddy's on a patent litigation.
The link goes back to August 2020, I have not seen any new update, but believe that this is the Civil casetext.
Perhaps someone may know a tad more/clarify?
I trust this may help---its all about patent protection.
https://casetext.com/case/indivior-inc-v-dr-reddys-labs-sa-10
Its about-ANDA- see this link, it may help explain the term ANDA and add context to the slide presentation
https://www.americanbar.org/products/inv/book/392632497/
VBR
K
Hi Pinfinder,
I trust all is well with you and the golf is good!
Following on from our prior conversation; the results are stalwart and I continue to see better expectations for the share performance ahead.
If not already done so, It may be worth while you and all LTH reviewing the current investor presentation-slides 16/17-- there was a provision of " (-) $24 related to an increase in the provision for ANDA litigation". As you may already know, and as I understand it the financials, I believe this provisioning brings the total of set aside funds to $73M. This management being prudent on the matter. Link below to ppt.
https://www.indivior.com/resources/dam/id/777/Indivior%20Q3%202021%20Investor%20Presentation.pdf
I would welcome any comment and clarification from LTH's.
All good, looking forward to 275p+
ATVB
K
Hi LTH's,
Strong alignment of price trend technicals and money flows as we get a new closing high at 842p.
IMO, looking for follow through and high probability price breakout on the cards from 871p, should see price test 910p and 940p respectively in the very near term.
All good and keep the faith.
VBR
K
Hi Pinfinder,
I agree and looking forward to the coming 2/3 years - should the revenue growth trajectory remain on course, perhaps 2025 could see revenues nearer $1Bn! Assuming stable pricing and margin dynamics, this would see a substantial improvement in cash flows and allow for rising multiple expansion. Anyway, one year at a time, expectations are already moving to FY2022 as we close this quarter. Very undervalued company, GARP, at the moment under the radar allowing for more accumulation on price weakness. Once this BB chat gets busy and price is rising, we will know that investor psychology has changed for the better.
VBR
Hi Pinfinder,
Thanks for the link, good confirmation that monies will used for treatment.
Additional news from CNBC, worth a review,
https://www.cnbc.com/2021/07/21/drug-distributors-jj-reach-landmark-26-billion-opioid-settlement-.html
VBR
Hi PathFinder,
Thank you for your post on CAMX.
Redoing my reply, the first did not go through, perhaps it was lost some where in the LSE digital ether, It may yet turn up!
I am keeping an eye on the progress of Brixadi from Camurus as a comparative to Indiviors opioid treatment. I do think that pricing will be rational between peers and attaining market share at the expense of margins is a pointless exercise as they provide a critical service WW. We should have by YE2022 a reference point to learn more how INDV is fairing vs. CAMX and other validated treatments.
Please See - https://www.camurus.com/ -- Look under press releases –26th and 25 June 2021 and note the CEO says--- "The opioid crisis has worsened during the Covid-19 pandemic and there is a significant need for new and effective treatments.”
Briefly--Lund, Sweden — 26 June 2021 — Camurus (NASDAQ STO: CAMX) announced today that the New Drug Application (NDA) by Camurus’ US licensee Braeburn for Brixadi™ (buprenorphine) extended-release weekly and monthly injection for subcutaneous use for moderate to severe opioid use disorder was accepted for review by the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA). The Prescription Drug User Fee Act (PDUFA) action date is set for 15 December 2021.
“We are pleased that the FDA has accepted Braeburn’s updated new drug application for Brixadi. We now look forward to the NDA approval and our innovative treatment finally becoming available to US patients with opioid use disorder,” says Fredrik Tiberg, President and CEO of Camurus. “The opioid crisis has worsened during the Covid-19 pandemic and there is a significant need for new and effective treatments.”
&
Brixadi™ is the US trademark for Camurus’ product Buvidal® approved for treatment of opioid dependence in the EU, UK, Australia, Switzerland and New Zealand.
You may also wish to review--
https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/braeburn-resubmits-new-drug-application-for-brixadi-buprenorphine-extended-release-subcutaneous-injection-for-moderate-to-severe-opioid-use-disorder-301313130.html
https://www.camurus.com/pressreleases/ -- See Press release of 10/5/2021
Current dynamics for the sector and fundamentals remain positive.
VBR and Bon W/E.