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Hi Pinfinder,
I do not know the answer, but the problem is enormous that many US Counties have run out of money for treatment, bodies pile up in coroner offices from the lack of State funding. No doubt, some of this money will flow back for rehabilitation. The administration has affirmed that this crises needs attention, a positive for Indivior and peers in the next few years.
The manufactures of opioids’ drugs are paying the fines for their aggressive marketing practices etc. It was unfortunate that Indiviors prior management practices were below regulatory, commercial and shareholder expectations, particularly since they are a solution to the problem. Putting all this behind us, IMO, Indivior remains the best solution provider for this ill and is GARP.
I support your 200p+ target and arrive at it in this way. I am sure that you are aware of these facts, IMO, revenues for FY 2021 should be $710/720M at the upper end from $700M, as sales improves for Sublocade (monthly injectable) and Suboxone film (daily oral treatment) sees a slower rate of decline from generic competition. Ongoing investment behind Sublocade will continue which is the better treatment choice & competes in the US market dominated by Vivitrol, which is a non-scheduled opioid use disorder treatment & Indivior is making good inroads with the first major contract win from the criminal justice system.
IMO, for 2021, Revenues of $720, EBITDA of $143M, with say high 70% gross margins, on currently an EV/EBITDA basis of 6X at 160p, it’s not a stretch to see 190p/200p by YE2021. If FY2022 revenues are $780-$800M -EBITDA ~$200M-$205M, that’s 4X EV/EBITDA, not a demanding multiple meaning 240p is achievable with a price moving towards 300p in late 2022 with a good FY2023 forecast. As others have mentioned, the partnership with Aelis Parma is great, they have the potential to treat 11M cannabis addicts. It is estimated there are 110M WW & the real number is a factor larger. With 10% as confirmed addicts, undoubtedly, new money will have to be set aside by the Federal and State governments for rehab etc.
Indivior, guiding Rev $210M/$230M for Sublocade. The CV19 pandemic has not helped, therefore, the upper rev expectations’ are reasonable once treatment centres are open. Like Indivior, Camurus, (CAMX.SE) has a long-acting buprenorphine product called Brixadi, will be available in 1Q/2Q-2022, to compete with Sublocade. It will help expand the market for long acting injectables of buprenorphine. The addiction problem is large and two products can be supported globally. I hope that pricing remains rational from Camurus. Both these stocks look poised to breakout if expectations of revenues and earnings are met without a price war. Have a look at CAMX, listed in Sweden, excuse the pun – its growing like a weed!
Sorry, back to point, I can only speculate that a portion of the fines go back for rehabilitation. A good question for the IR person at Indivior?
VBR
From 8th July, NBC News,
As expected, worth a view, 3 mins.
https://www.nbcnews.com/now/video/15-states-reach-settlement-with-purdue-pharma-over-opioid-addiction-crisis-116431429612
VBR
Wise, the global technology company building a better way to move money globally, IPO London debut, market value of £9bn. Has FY Mar 21 revenues of £421m or multiple of some 21x revenues. Should be a positive read through for one of TMT Investment holdings in 3S Money Club Limited, the UK-based bank challenger that provides corporate clients with multi-currency bank accounts which itself recently completed a new equity funding round enabling TMT to post an uplift of 306% as per the RNS of 1st July 2021.
From RNS
3S Money Club Limited, a UK-based bank challenger providing corporate clients with multi-currency bank accounts (www.3s.money), completed a new equity funding round. The transaction represented a revaluation uplift of US$1.9 million (or 306%) in the fair value of TMT's investment in 3S Money, compared to the previous reported amount as of 31 December 2020 (adjusted for the value of TMT's additional investments made in 3S Money in the first half of 2021).
VBR
Hi All,
Credit to the original authors- copy & past as below;
Summary of each drug description on the AGILE system and see links to further research resources;
1. Molnupiravir - (development codes MK-4482 and EIDD-2801) is an experimental antiviral drug which is orally active & exerts its antiviral action through introduction of copying errors during viral RNA replication. see
https://www.forbes.com/sites/williamhaseltine/2021/03/16/molnupiravir-a-new-hope-for-prevention-and-treatment-of-covid-19-and-other-dangerous-viruses/?sh=62a2f0ad1200 and https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Molnupiravir
2. Vir Biotechnology and GSK announce VIR-7831 reduces hospitalisation and risk of death in early treatment of adults with COVID-19.
• Vir and GSK plan to immediately seek Emergency Use Authorization in the US and authorisations in other countries.
• Additional new in vitro studies indicate VIR-7831 maintains activity against major circulating COVID-19 variants.
• 7th May 2021 article --- https://www.gsk.com/en-gb/media/press-releases
and
3. Second Vir-GSK monoclonal antibody to enter Phase 1/2 COVID-19 trials
14-Jan-2021 By Rachel Arthur
Vir Biotechnology and GSK will evaluate VIR-7832 in the early treatment of COVID-19 in a Phase 1b/2a trial starting in the first quarter of this year.
HTTPS://WWW.BIOPHARMA-REPORTER.COM/ARTICLE/2021/01/14/SECOND-VIR-GSK-MONOCLONAL-ANTIBODY-TO-ENTER-PHASE-1-2-COVID-19-TRIALS
4. Repurposing of niclosamide;
https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanepe/article/PIIS2666-7762(21)00071-5/fulltext
Niclosamide also inhibits the release of proinflammatory cytokines such as IL-8, and possibly also other cytokines, which could be of utmost importance to curb the cytokine storm frequently observed in hospitalized Covid-19 patients. Another fortunate aspect is the antibacterial activity of niclosamide that could be most welcome in fighting potential pulmonary superinfections
Without doubt, the present paper is of large significance to clinicians and health policy makers due to the urgent need for a drug to treat SARS-CoV-2 infections…. and decreased efficacy of the vaccines in older patients allergic reactions and antibody-dependent enhancement potentially causing cytokine storm. Without an effective drug, the death toll and huge socioeconomic costs of this pandemic will continue to increase. A drug is urgently needed, as it becomes more and more obvious that vaccination alone might not sufficient to curb the pandemic caused by this rapidly mutating virus. A cheap and well explored drug like niclosamide could be the way to go.
I trust this is helpful
VBW
Hi Fretfree/All,
See additional points below last post;
I have been asking the same question.
I can only surmise, that we have to wait to hear from the BoD about AGILE dates.
See Gov.UK links below, this may help, its more descriptive & you may have seen this as part of your research resources.
https://www.gov.uk/government/news/groundbreaking-covid-19-treatments-to-be-fast-tracked-through-clinical-trials
and
https://www.agiletrial.net
I also found these points to share with everyone from the resource;
• The Therapeutics Taskforce will work with innovators to support them to progress their promising treatments through clinical trial phases
• 4 treatments have so far been selected for AGILE:
• EIDD-2801 (Molnupiravir), an antiviral
• VIR-7831 and VIR-7832, both monoclonal antibodies
• Niclosamide, an anthelminthic
• Future treatments to enter AGILE will be selected by the UK COVID-19 Therapeutics Advisory Panel (UK-CTAP), who lead the process of reviewing and evaluating proposals for treatments to enter UK national trial platforms – read more about UK-CTAP and how drug proposals can be made
I assume that Sareum will have to present a scientific white paper to the AGILE team to show validation and before they accept them on the platform. Since its a fast-track process, we may not need to wait long, perhaps some news in 2/3 months if not sooner.
VBR
Hi Fretfree/All,
I have been asking the same question.
I can on surmise, that we have to wait to hear from the BoD about AGILE dates.
See Gov.UK links below, this may help, its more descriptive & you may have seen this as part of your research resources.
https://www.gov.uk/government/news/groundbreaking-covid-19-treatments-to-be-fast-tracked-through-clinical-trials
and
https://www.agiletrial.net
Sorry that all I can contribute.
VBR
Ahfam3 / Everyone,
Many thanks again for great posts, in fear of being repetitious, like all here am excited with the news today.
As I pointed out yesterday in my post, I now believe this is an encouraging result published from new research that SDC-1801 reduces the levels of cytokines associated with Acute Respiratory Distress Syndrome, (ARDS), in impacted human lung cells infected with SARS-CoV-2. This is will now lead to further UK government funding from the launch of the AGILE clinical development platform, set up to fund Phase 1 trials and fast-track the development of potentially ground-breaking CV19 treatment/therapy.
Ahfam3, like you wrote, two key points of many that stand out to me in the RNS- the vivo studies;
1. Strong evidence that expression of Type 1 interferons (IFNa and IFNb) is reduced by SDC-1801 treatment in a dose-responsive manner; and that
2.Viral loads did not increase after SDC-1801 administration, a potential concern when anti-inflammatory agents are used to dampen down an over-active immune response
In short, this is tremendous news on the clinical front and when successful proven through Ph1 and all human trials, Ph2/ph3. It means that the potential for Sareum to become a very large specialist pharmaceutical company in its own right. CV19 will remain endemic globally for the next few years and mutations are inevitable that may still infect the vaccinated. Aside from this, statistically there will be another deadly virus that may emerge globally, it may take a few years or never, but Sareum still has a potential valuable therapeutic solution beyond just treating CV19.
Sareum remains very much on schedule for the completion of preclinical studies in Q3 2021 for SDC-1801 TYK2/JAK1 inhibitor drug development programme. Sareum now expects these final toxicity and safety studies to complete in Q3 2021 and a Clinical Trial Application (CTA )for SDC- 1801 to be filed in Q4. With the CTA being filed in Q4 2021, this would enable Sareum begin first clinical trials in early 2022.
I have read the potential of a takeover, all well and good. However, I like to think of being an owner of Sareum with my equity holding. Whilst a takeover is welcome, at the right price, we should think like owners of the business and benefit from the value yet to be realised. Big pharma today will wake up and hear the news and JV/licencing deal would be equally very acceptable to release the future therapeutic possibilities and revenue potential. There are still may more stages to go through this exciting journey.
VBR
Ahfam3 et al,
Thank you for all your comments, always informative a pleasure to read them.
Its been great to see the progress from management that I have met and subsequently invest in.
As per trading update and new investor funds, Sareum would seem very much on track for the completion of preclinical studies in Q3 2021 for SDC-1801 TYK2/JAK1 inhibitor drug development programme. Sareum now expects these final toxicity and safety studies to complete in Q3 2021 and a Clinical Trial Application (CTA )for SDC- 1801 to be filed in Q4. My understanding is that with the CTA be filed in Q4 2021, this would enable Sareum begin first clinical trials in early 2022.
Potential Covid-19 application, the benefit of SDC-1801 vs. CV19, I am hoping for more news leading to funding grant from UKRI.
I believe we will see encouraging results from new research that may show that SDC-1801 reduces the levels of cytokines associated with Acute Respiratory Distress Syndrome, (ARDS), in impacted human lung cells infected with SARS-CoV-2. If success is demonstrated here, there should be further UK government funding from the launch of the AGILE clinical development platform, set up to fund Phase 1 trials and fast-track the development of potentially ground-breaking CV19 treatment/therapy.
I note that BMY's deucravacitinib had some encouraging Ph3 data. It would be good news should Sareum's SDC-1801 JAK1 show a strong valid differentiation as one of the only TYK2 inhibitors investigating the cytokine storm immune overreaction for CV19 and perhaps more broadly as an application for other existing viral infections.
All good.
VBR
Gdog,
Glad to hear that--enjoy.
The making of crunchy pork crackling and having a cold beer comes to mind!
I have our Chum on filter and I am now living the investment equivalent of the dolce vita—lol
VBW
Arthur,
You are more than welcome. Please don't worry about the currency, whilst its important, all being equal, on any given trading day the market makers will adjust the price for the two listings so they remain pari-passu.
I am with you and All here as shareholders on seeing the management release the value of the company.
VBW.
Hello Rustybucket,
There is no need to keep the $ price/AIM price low anymore.
My take is now that as the ADS price is above $19, the IPO issue price, it informs me that the book-runners/underwriters have potentially placed all the shares with their clients. Also tells me that all the money has been raised. We will only know the final tally at some point in a listing RNS.
As you point out, with demand, it would be ridiculous not to issue the extra shares. It makes sense because the extra shares are part of the overallotment option from the underwriters and they are issued in the US as the ‘Green-Shoe Option’ when demand is high and allows for additional new monies to be raised. The green-shoe option also provides price stabilisation and it’s an excellent price mechanism.
As the price is currently above $19, the underwriters should be applauded for a job well done. As I have said, what we need is some good broker research from the US underwriters who may become Tremors appointed brokers. The price on both exchanges will now trade on Tremors underlying fundamental’s. IMO and prior experience, the IPO has been successfully placed. It’s now down to investor demand lead by fundamentals and management’s future business strategy.
VBW
Hi Gdog,
Thanks, good to hear from you.
I trust all is okay with you and Oregon is cooling off <110F!
I saw the news yesterday that your northern neighbour had recorded >115F in BC.
Be well
VBR
Hi Arthur,
You are right, all being equal on fundamentals and on the currency front -in a perfect world, the two shares per ADS will adjust for the currency & the respective listed shares should trade in sync.
As we have a $ ADS listing, we need to think about the price from the underlying main listing, shares priced in sterling on AIM. The US is not the main listing. In theory, due to the currency exchange, both exchange prices should match up, but on several occasions an arbitrage opportunity opens up for trader’s to take advantage of the disparity between the two listed prices. There are funds/traders out there that look only for these opportunities all the time. Many FTSE100 stocks have USD ADS/ADR listings and for a brief time you get pricing disparities that tend to be arbitraged away.
At present, I cannot say with any certainty this is happening with Tremor because, I suspect due to the current IPO on NASDAQ, the underwriters of the transaction, having been short (normal practice) are potentially buying back to stabilise the price, all adjusted for the currency. At present with GBP at 1.3845, this gives US investors a ‘better currency valuation’ to buy the stock and should the USD strengthen further, it will help the ADS price a tad more and the price will move higher in line with the currency appreciation. This of course, works in reverse based on currency adjustments with any rise in the value of Sterling which will make buying the underlying two shares per ADS more expensive and the price of the ADS adjusts accordingly. Ideally, we want Tremors earnings to rise faster than the appreciation of sterling. For now, as Tremor earns more USD, the financial translations are positive into Sterling. I am sure the CFO manages a typical currency hedge like any large FTSE100 company or company with overseas earnings. As you appreciate, the currency translation is a double edged sword for investors when it comes to ADS/GDS/ADR listings but the benefit is a wider shareholder base.
I hope this helps you.
VBR
Patience paying off. Great to see the company continuing with making fantastic financial progress post its settlement agreement with DOJ a year ago. The company no longer 'high risk' as growth returns, net cash builds and the company consolidates its leadership position for treating addiction. With rising cashflows and earnings stability returning as a positive attribute to further share price gains for 2022. Strong margins shows resilience to to generics. Engagement with physicians should improve vs. trying to do it remotely as CV19 is mitigated. IMO, looking for at a price move potentially towards 190p/200p by YE and near-term above the 166p high from last July. I tend to agree with the expectations of a 250p+ price target as fundamentals improve over the NTM for Sublocade sales etc. A very unique and undervalued company doing a sterling job treating a difficult global social malady and saving lives.
Thanks All, good to read contributing comments.
VBR
Thanks Brubru24,
I will go black.
However, with my new found filter, I will rely on you for the update.
Rustybucket,
Many thanks again, I have the filter on for Stt1, perfect.
VBW
Quick Math,
On the 18th June RNS---6,768,953 ADS priced at $19.
RNS today, Tosca reports that they own 1M ADS, this is equivalent to 14.77% of issuance.
Perhaps they have a US fund and supporting Tremor by diversifying some holdings in USD!