RE: Guinea coup attempt sparks concerns for bauxite, iron ore miners9 Sep 2021 12:55
Well, if nothing else this should put the fear of God into the Chinese.
That fear should highlight at least 2 considerations:
1. Realisation that investing billions of USD into unstable countries in Africa is unpredictable, incredibly risky, and likely to end in tears. The various tinpot dictators and risk of nationalisation, Coups, punitive taxes, etc etc is a continuous risk.
2. Realisation that NOT investing billions of USD into unstable countries in Africa is strategic madness and likely to cost China any chance of partial control of their future Iron Ore purchases and their position as an emerging superpower. Failing to gain control over strategic Iron Ore resources is already costing them 10s of billions of USD/year. It does not take a genoius to understand that this will be in the trillions of USD in the longer term, as well as generating political and geo-stratecic weakness. China absolutely needs to get this under control if they want true resource independence, and there are not that many alternatives.
As far as I can tell this development in Guinea is a stark reminder of the risks and likely to make any possible investors into ZIOP even more nervous, -but on the other side- it really and unequivocally cements Chinas need to pull their finger out and start developing more parallel and globally significant projects.
Zanaga as a resource is more important than ever, and is one of the key strategic -and- valuable resources in the world, yet it has never been so undermined by corruption, political apathy and commercial weakness as it is today.
What gives?
1. I think its clear to anyone that ZIOP will not be developed by its current owners in any shape or form, and neither will it's potential hosts (RoC/Nguesso&Co)
2. This project has zero commercial value due to the corruption/risks. (I.e. you can't just "buy" this and start mining, so forget any of the big mining companies. Even the ones that could front the CapEx)
3. The only path to production I imagine, is China taking charge of it directly with assurances from RoC+Nguesso&Co and more likely through a consortium of chinese companies, much like Simandou. Probably 5+ years before mine/slurry pipelines would even start construction. (7-10 years before substantial (10MTPA+) production?)
4. ZIOC/ZIOP would do well with getting buy/JV in to the project from China (ideally) as insurance from someone outright confiscating or nationalising it (Having a JV with Glencore has stopped it from happening already, but Glencore is unlikely to put up a fight for this asset in the big scheme of things). Time is running out for ZIOC.
GL, Kongo.