Member Info for Know0

Cash. We know H1 revenue will be flat.

H1 profit the my confirmed was in target. That target from their March 2021 presentation would be circa 225M (by my calcs)

Dillard - I am sure it is speculation to a degree, but when Schroder add 1M quid worth at 43/44 a few weeks back, its not unreasonable with the trading update and disposal update to not think they or others are looking at increasing - of course, we dont know, BUT what we do know is
1. we have just achieved a sale of a JV at over 11 times multiple that reduces CPI profits by about 15M but banks nearly 190M cash - that is very significant and a nice bit of business
2. We know from the trading update that H1 turnover will be in line with last year BUT EBITDA will is in line with 2021 expectations (for H1) - where I believe that to be circa 225M - so significantly better profitability and cash retention

When it moves, none of us know, but this is a great safe share with a turnaround that is really delivering

But, DYOR all and GL
Still holding big and added a small amount Friday

there will be lots of profit taking at 50p - I happen to believe we will get there before Aug results but 46-51 will bounce around

Again, lots of trading through 40s over net 6 weeks is my opinion

BUT agree with AIM - things are really looking good - H1 update saying they are on target for profit is huge

Whether PE or II increase - this would help - but delivering PROFIT and the talk of Divis returning will make a big difference

Just IMO - Good luck and enjoy the ride!

I am at a loss!

So many sell volumes v buys (yes I know there will be the usual errors with some reported the other way etc) - But this volume is crazy

Need a big fish to come in here and take us out for 2p

It amazes me that Mkt Cap is about 1 years profits!

Anyway, one day it will come good - just sit and leave my cash there unless anything fundamental changes for the worse

JG - there will no doubt be profit takers, but IF the Buys / sells data ia almost correct today, Buys were 50% more than sells

I hope that people will have seen thge news today and keep that momentum going - not that we will get another 9% day but hopefully the trend will be North now through 46p - we have seen previously with CPI we could get another 10% day tmrw or we could fall back a little

I do expect thois (one way or another) to be holding 46p before 30/6 - hope so anyway

GLA

Cant see that but would be great to hold 41p

Last Friday there were 10M shares traded - we could get similar today - MMs mopped up those shares last week and today are selling them at a nice gain - Trading again today is very strong, but lots of people will be taking their profits from last weeks buys - as others have said, a broker announcement or 2 will help - would love to see us hold 45p by end of week as that will give the chance to go at 50p again

However, I do think there will be a lot of sales at 50p so dont see us breaking that very soon as I am sure this will bounce around 48-50p for a little while

When we hold 50p for a couple of days, the charge will be on for 60p which I expect to be the new normal before Aug 1/2 yr results

GLA and for those week sellers the past week, i am sure some will now look at buying back in on todays news

Thanks Aim - agree re debt and Divi - i think March 2023 could see return to Divi (may even be 6 mths earlier)

Good luck to you - god we deserve it!!

Have a great weekend all

Aim - havent you seen my posts!! Yes, I know it will come good - business is moving in the right direction and will be a leaner meaner business without debt by end of next year - meaning profits will mean dividends not funding debt repayments

You should join us on Dscord - sensible / realistic chatter

probably not looking to buy in, just spread betting - He has made his money - they probably closed most at 37p

Its all about making money - they made theirs, investing is about LT - but there are many ways to skin the cat, and good luck to them

I dont like that they post lies and make people lose money, but nobody has to sell (usually) so its those weak people that lose out

Anyway - looking fwd to next week now - hopefully we will get to 41p and hold and prove a breakout

GLA

Aim - I am an optimist - but I thought your post this morning was further than i could see!

Fair play to you - glad I added at 37.1 (although as I say, if it was 35p or lower I wouldve gone very big

Night Watch - you clearly dont know the business - currently valued at a fwd looking multiple of 3 which is very low

But if it goes below 35p I will be selling a kidney!

Think most shorters are closing of greatly reducing their positions now - as this looks like its getting very close to the bounce

just hit oversold 30 on rsi daily for the first time since 25th of January - which was when we shot to 50p

Lets see - who ever said CPI was boring!!!

Guys - this has been a huge disappointment since March - big contracts etc but no real news on disposals and refinance which wouldve helped stabailise and see SP grow

I still have absolutely no doubt that this will come good in the not too distant future - Schroders M quid buy at approx 43p a few months back tells me enough

CPI say thet will put out a trading RNS v close to 30 June - it may do a little - but everyone invested here knows its an unloved share and that profits delivered are the only measurement for success

Hugely frustrating to us that now sit in paper loss at these levels - the 2020 Accounts amd fwd looking projections still suggest this is way undervalued

To those new here - well done for finding it - it will frustrate the life out of you becasue it gets played like a fiddle for IIs to make money working with Sandbar etc - if you are ST then good luck, I think you will make decent returns in next 6 weeks

If you are LT - I think you will still make good money in 9mths

If you have been shorting this recently - good luck, I hope you close those soon as this can bounce very big very quickly and I think your risk reward now is changing

However you make money - GL

I am still Long here with a 220k holding having also taken over 30k profit on CPI since last summer

Its a beast, but a beast you can always make money from - one way or another!!

GLA

They have confirmed that an RNS will be out very close to end of month - but realistically we wont see proper increase until we know they are delivering the on target profitability

A disposal and refinance would be nice and probably help a few % points - but this is all about delivering the forecast profit

GLA

Dalesman - it should be sunny but as I look out of my window I can barely see the other side of our lake (about 150m)

Summer has not arrived in Atlantic Canada yet!

Passwind - you maybe right that i dont get 35p (but I can only hope)- the IIs invested here control too much (Schroders recently added a M quid buy in low 40s) and hold more than 15% - second largest holder - a PE offer of 80p I believe would be rejected

I think it would take an offer greater than a quid for IIs to sell (as long as H1 profit is on track for the annual 200-225M that was calculated from March data)

Dont forget those IIs have much higher Avg after being in for so long - it will take an age to get to 2quid IMO, but 120-150 in a year is (I hesitate to say) "probable" - any PE house would look at the say 250-300M 2023 forecast and would try and get it at say 8 time multiple.

Current IIs would take a discount to say a quid I think but no lower

Good luck o n your profit Passwind - I guess you wont be around much longer if 37p is where you see the bottom - we all make money in different ways - Im happy holding my substantial holding for another year to get my profit.

GLA

GTTM - much of those figures weren't cash inflow though - they we debt equity swaps- paying of trade creditors and loans used to get through 2020 when mine wasnt producing

You need to understand the full picture not just a corner of it

GLA

(A member of the "private group!" that in concert are the second largest holders of RMM! Not bothered about SP now, have taken issue with several matters with the company. They must do better on somethings, but I am happy with the progress they are making in developing the mine and happy to hold by 200k investment to make .5M in due course- GLA)

look at my posts from 18/19 March - I show the reconciliation there from the 116.5M PROFIT made from trading and then deduct the one off costs to close offices etc to reconcile to the retained 49M loss

I also show the whole workings of 2021 projected Profit of 200-225m

ANYONE that can read financial statements or who is involved in M&A activities at long as me understands the differnece

As I said back then - I cant help you anymore if you dont understand the difference - same as those thinking debt is higher than it is because of the adoption of IFRS accounting fro 2019

Look at post history from then and learn

Passwind bangs on about loss making legacy contracts as if they are material in value - they are worth maybe 20M EBIT and most will now have been turnaround by cost management and regegotiation

Some of the events businesses will again struggle this year so that is why I say 2021 Profit to be 200-225M now as 225M in March was assuming some further recovery there

Enough cash to service debt to end of 2022 (without further disposals) and free cash from trading (which was positive in 2020 and will increase in 2021 as profit translates to cash

If PE wanted a bargain, they maybe able get this for circa 80p IMO - that would be a shame for us LTH as I keep saying this will be 1.00 to 1.20 by end of year / early 2022

The amount of IIs here though that know that this will translate to 120 and increase in 2022 may not be supportive of a sale at that price

Anyway, thanks for warning us - do your job and get this sub 35p please I have 50k waiting to jump in for more

GLA

CASH - READ the company presentation - you are relying on lazy journalists reporting

Times Article yesterday says profit blah blah - that is half a story - Research it - learn and understand - base on facts not on other posters (me inc) or paper articles

The company presentation has it all

End of month news (unless disposals) wont be much - just fluffy words - not expecting anything decent until Aug personally

But may see us ticking up the 40s in July - would be nice to get 33p action first though wouldnt it

Anyway Cash - must be a shock to you to see The Times quoting a profit (admittedly only from Con Ops not whole company for 2020)

Cos you just couldnt get your head around the papers setting it all out for you in the presentation - funniest comment I saw from you though was "what happened to all the ESS profit from 2020? Did Montague keep it?"

Really!!! I spat my coffee out with laughter - so please dont worry too much about me and thanks but no thanks about taking advice from someone that things pre sale profits go to the buying company!!! (why you thought that would be limited to just 1 year I didnt know but you lost me totally at the thought they kept any profits pre sale!!