It's all guesswork24 Dec 2018 18:17
There is one thing that keeps bugging me since that almost 50% drop over the last 4 months and that is: what is really included in the current SP and most importantly, how can this be justified?We keep talking about leaks, uncertain political situation in the country, extra cost, potential dilution but really.....is it all worth 50% drop? Is it? In terms of securing ST2 funds we are not any more uncertain than we were a 6, 12, 18 or 24 months ago, are we? I'd say we made a great step forward in terms of construction progress and proving that the process can be managed effectively and certain elements delivered on time. Political situation? Hmm....it's temporary by nature. There will be fat years and there will be lean years......and none last forever. The same can be said about market sentiments. 400mln extra in the form of new equity? Hmm...Is it really worth 50% drop especially it would likely be offset by the huge injection of certainty in the form of securing the whole ST2? I'm not convinced. So what we are left with? A potential leak (doesn't matter who) and not just any leak but the information suggesting that the company actually struggles to secure the original 3bn via 100% debt (let alone the additional 400mln)......Unless we can blame it all on unpredictabIe human nature.... I really hope I'm wrong and considering the huge potential for growing your capital when investing at such an early stage I still have no doubts that if we are prepared to wait long enough, we will eventually make the money in the long term.
For now, all we can do is guessing. And gamble. Sit tight or sell hoping that we can buy back more once the RNS is out.
This way or the other, Merry Xmas to you all and let's hope for some good news in the first quarter of the New 2019 Year.
Regards
KOH