Member Info for KnockinOnHeavens

I was just wondering what will be the opening price and market reaction first thing in the morning on ST2 RNS (assuming that the news are positive, they raised 3bln via debt and the rest via lets say a combination of strategic partner + something + a bit of new equity)?

I'm trying to estimate how much it would potentially cost me to liquidate now but buy back in the first minutes the news are announced.....Of course if the news are negative I'd be gaining loads on the first negative reaction buying back on the panic....

Any guesstimates? Could that be worth a gamble (and a piece of mind in case things don't go according to plan?

Thanks
KOH

Evening SL,

"Thing is, the more dilution we have, the stronger the balance sheet becomes"

In what sense, If I may ask? Additional funds - yes, additional equity load - no.

Regards
KOH

Just read your further post, GK.

Disregard my question, please.

GK,

"With them also firmly sticking to no more than $3bn of senior debt be taken up (one of the BoD said more was available I recall)"

Who said that? When? In what contex?

Thanks,
KOH

Alan, are you all right?

I thought the ST2 is already "in the bag" because CF said so?
How come that your unbalanced view finally starts to show signs of stability? Christmas cheer?

Hopefully permanent.

I meant to say:

Hope it works both ways and if ST2 DOESN'T go swimmingly, he'll be apologising to us! :)

Night Night
KOH

.. ;)

SL

Hope it works both ways and if ST2 does go swimmingly, he'll be apologising to us! :)

PS.

I never liked Staley either.

Cherokee,

I think we both didn't express our opinions precisely enough.

I said "that the shareholder value will be lower forever" (without adding "unless the company will decide to buy some of the shares back on day" which may or may not happen).

You said "This company WILL make enough cash to pay its debt, pay dividends, and once debt is low enough, it WILL initiate share buy backs" which in reality was a pure speculation on your side at this stage.

The only certain thing in this scenario is that the that vast majority of us WILL be hit by the introduction of the new equity in 2019 without any guarantee of the future buyback.

We WILL get hit for sure, we may or may not get it back one day in the future subject to many factors.

Ok, movie time.

Good night,
KOH

Hi Jesse,

Yes, we will have to see.

Regards
KOH

most of US will be too old*

Cherokee

To many assumptions and way too early. Some of them do, some of them don't. Potential life span of the company is extensive and things change quickly. The mine doesn't even exist yet, dilution is still to happen and you are talking about some potential share buybacks that may or may not happen in the distant future. Even if it does happen (and IF it does) one day, most of will be too old (or dead) to benefit from it. On the other hand you can be certain that that vast majority of us will be hit by the introduction of the new equity in 2018 without any guarantee of the future buyback.

KOH

Yup, I agree. I'm really curious now what they are going to come up with.
Father Christmas is running late this year, hopefully he'll make us all happy in the Q1 of 2019.

Regards
KOH

Hi SL,

Sure, one doesn't contradict another. What I'm basically saying is that neither specific order nor percentage share of any of the components of the future package have been confirmed yet.

Regards
KOH

Hi Jesse,

It's irrelevant whether you go along with my statement or not. The point is that your statement "we have been told that dilution is at least third choice" is incorrect. It might as well be a first or second choice and the order was never specified.
The fact that that the new equity issue is listed as the very last item in the company RNS dated 06-Sep-18 may give the impression to some as if it was an option that is least likely to occur which is obviously not the case and the dilution scenario is as probable as any strategic partner, contingent funding from stakeholders / investors, alternative sources of structured capital or any of those in any combination.

Regards
KOH

"They will be worth less until the company enacts a buy back program. Which is highly likely at some point in the future (should the profitability be in the expected range)"

Crystal ball? What the basis for your "highly likely" estimate, Cherokee?
The reality is that we have no idea if it ever happens and even if so It could be in 50 years time when most of us will "highly likely" be dead.......

"IF there is dilution then they’ll just have to be dilution, my shares may be worth less for a while"

If there is dilution your shares won't be worth less "for a while", they will be worth less FOREVER.

"we have been told that dilution is at least third choice"

No, we haven't. The Company cleverly listed the new equity as the very last item in the last point of the "the most appropriate form of financing for the increased capital funding requirement' in the RNS from 06-Sep-18, giving that false impression as if it was an option that is least likely to occur.
The oldest trick in the book, the dilution is as probable as any strategic partner, contingent funding from stakeholders / investors, alternative sources of structured capital or any of those in any combination.

"On that basis it could be as many as 10 billion new shares"

or maybe 20 billion and a future dividend per share of 1p if we are lucky, you never know....lol