Member Info for Kipper9

Yes, i think Simpiles mentioned yesterday that a proper thinning out of the JL dead wood would be coming in 2025. Those redundancy costs will be incurred, but are one off's. Replaced by Gen AI? I don't know. On the sale of Capita One. So we sold a 'part' of the entire company for not much less than the whole damn thing. If the whole shebang was worth £250m at 14p, minus the £207m sale, that values whats left at £43m? Can that be right? Seems odd. Either the buyer paid an astronomical amount for Cap 1, or they paid an ok price and the remainder is massively undervalued. I must have this wrong somehow?

Usual Errors & Omissions Excepted

Just to remind ourselves here is a ShareCast article dated 21 May on Capita performance up to end of April. So 4 months of full H1.

https://www.sharecast.com/news/news-and-announcements/capita-ytd-adjusted-revenues-fall--16813277.html

"Chief executive Adolfo Hernandez said: "Our financial performance in the first four months of the year has been in line with our expectations and we remain on track to deliver our full-year financial guidance as outlined at the start of this year."

"We are committed to improving the financial performance of Capita. Key strategic priorities include reducing costs and using technology more effectively both within Capita and for our customers. Our cost reduction programmes are on track and we are making great strides with our best in class hyperscale technology partners, such as ServiceNow to co-develop solutions which will drive efficiency and a better service for our clients."

I note that the BoE is due to decide on any cut in interest rates on Thursday; the first under a new 'socialist' Government. A favourable decision may well move the general market day before CPI H1's. FED is penciling in a cut from Sept, so i can't see BoE cutting yet. Would this impact CPI? Who knows....

Crow, would agree on most there. Unimpressed with Paul Scott. Divi &/or BB? No. Sell before H1 as a hedge? Try an short Option/CFD? Situation is differant now than previous IMV. Too much good news/momentum. My 25p by COB Friday was rather tongue in cheek, but you never know. SP could just fly & leave the traders swimming naked!

Overall, i see good guidance but there is more too do. My concern? Press will slam it......

Paul scott says he thinks Capita's target of 6 - 7% margins is 'a big ask'. But other's have achieved 9.4% & are targeting +10% margin for 2024.( Sopra Steria) Plus i can't see AH setting the bar at a level he is likely to fall shy of. He says 6 - 8% is achievable, and i believe him.

Fully on board with all of that JG. I believe the company has a fantastic future at last. Was trying to say that a lot of us on here are very knowledgable on the specifics of the company financials. But, there is a certain element in the media that simply wheel out the same old dross about Crapita. Total illinformed tosh, of course, but fills column inches easilly.

That's our job tho as PI's. Do quality research and spot the golden nuggets before the hoi polloi. Ignore the naysayers and eventually reap our rewards....

If SP gets pummelled on Fri i may well top up again. But, if SP rallies, i'm happy too as i have my quota really....

Nice peice on the Market NF. I bang on relentlessly here and elsewhere how IMO the market is rigged against the PI. MM's, Analysts, Brokers, Media, Bloggers etc all working the SP to their advantage. I don't think our FCA have the teeth that the DoJ like to excercise. Perhaps they are even complicit. Until something is done (if ever) i do my research on a company like Capita and wait until the 'good news' is so overwhelming the SP simply has to rise. A waiting game, for me anyway.

A 'trading' strategy, i'm guessing works differantly, and can give good returns for folks as yourself. An example of why that doesn't work for me is with the recent £207m sale. It was completely unexpected (?) and took the SP from c15 to c22. A trader would have been jolly lucky to have made that trade. The LTH strategy holds from c15 and waits for his TP exit much higher. My recent sale in BATS at 2,560 netted me a quick 12% return (+ some divi). But now the SP has risen to 2,750 which irks me somewhat. Whenever iv'e tried to 'trade', i look back and i bought in too early and sold out too soon; so didn't hit the bottom & missjudged the top.

Another plus to the LTH strategy for me is my blood pressure remanis at a reasonable level....lol

For me, i'm thinking that the HY results will be poorly received by certain media. I referance the interviewer in the recent Rockwood interview with his scoffing attitude about Capita being known as the 'widowmaker'. We here all know our onions when it comes to the true potential Capita has with Adolfo. But i think the 'Crapita' stories will be regurgitated. 'Jam tomorrow' stories. Too tempting for certain media outlets. Easy column inches than actually doing some research.

I would also like to hear more from Shore Capital. They have been giving a Buy recommendation seemingly forever, but some detail and a TP please Robin. Should the SP come under downward pressure, it may play into our hands for buying purposes.....

Simpiles, so you need to crack the code. Then, would we know when the MM's are going to move the SP?

You do make a good point re AI. Sounds like a challenge for some of the more 'techie' folks on here.....way beyond my pay grade!

Fearless, my haggis eating friend, don't fret. Think how Buffetlike your decision was not to sell out your VOD now they are pushing past 73p. You in the money yet there??

"I'm calling 20.20p close imho"

I think that would be a good result given the low's earlier on in the week; close last Fri was 20.50p

Simpiles, yes, i get the bean counter thing. Results year on year presented in a way you would think Gordon Brown had penned them. A lot of what AH says, his terminology, i have to Google before i can figure it out. Even after, i still struggle. (wrong generation..lol) But the way he communicates this is so, well, authentic, so genuine. A real person, who seems to WANT you to understand, as opposed to JL who basically wanted to baffle you with numbers.....

PJ, nice info that you have experience there. You, and others, may have picked up on the fact i like strong charactors as leaders. Going back; Thompson (Rentokil), & now Armstrong (Coinbase), Zuckerberg (Meta). Many others. I research the person as much as the company. A company can only go where the leader is capable of taking it.

For my money (literally) Adolfo Hernandez is the real deal.....

Perhaps it's just me PJ, but i always got the impression JL was little interested in us, the owners, of the company. Way down his list of priorities. One of the things i first noticed about AH, his use of the word 'shareholders'.....

A dividend? Buyback? Not sure, these would be bonus's for me. A sign that his strategy and vision for the future of Capita is taking shape would be fine for now.

Perfect scenario? Excellant results & update. Market reacts poorly. SP drops back to 13p mark. Kipper doubles up on his 258,000 shares....

For me, an update with the word 'shareholder' in it, and not 'stakeholder' would be another step away from the JL day's & towards a more AH perspective.....

25p by COB a week today, guaranteed....

No No No....typo alert! I meant 'hitters'; big hitters. Not the other S word, that's a totally differant thing!

LSE; please give us an EDIT option....

Trenners, yep, yours is certainly a lot bigger than mine. Think there are a good few big swingers here.....lol

The last 3 Fridays have closed up on the previous Friday. 15.04, 19.86 & 20.50

Alas, unless we can muster an exceptional last day, we look to be breaking our winning streak..... and then it's just the 4 nail biting day's until H1. Absolutely certain the SP will close at 25p on Fri Results day.

@NF, wasn't sure if you'd closed on VOD & piled in here. You being a Trader, as opposed to me who looks for beaten down shares with a med term turnaround potential. Call me an Opportunist. Am holding for circ a quid on those and will take the divi until then. I think the main differance between our respective strategies is i look at the company, whereas you are more focussed on movements in the SP on a daily basis. Horses for courses......Good luck

Fearless one. You sell those VOD at a loss to buy in here? Might prove to be another bad decision as I see they are up 1.25% today on good progress on their turnaround. Never mind eh, can't get it right every time mate......