Member Info for kennedy2324

It’s shambolic. FID should never have been reach, dilution should never have happened. Where was the DD for goodness sake?

I cannot believe the financiers failed to check this before committing $450m debt and subsequent equity. Unbelievable

Big risk IMO. That placing assumes Villeta is built and operational by 2029. That’s now dead in the water. Any negotiations on Power Supply could take months, and if they have to go back to the Finance group then Debt & Capital promised could be withdrawn.

I’m afraid I think this one is heading south. Feel for everyone that invested. Some of put a huge amount in here, and escaping with 50-60% is the best we’ll get.

That was my thoughts too. Originally I had almost 260k at £0.61. Sold half when the announcement was made last week for around £0.31 and the remainder today for around £0.355 so pretty painful experience. Hard to believe that prior to FID they were £0.90

Not a leak, I’ve been here since Nov 2022. Sold 50% very reluctantly after the announcement last week. I kept 130k hoping for a new agreement on power supply to happen. I sold my 130k today.

Genuinely hope the company does get a deal, but I can’t take the risk now of it failing. This was a large part of my savings, so checking out is done with disappointment.

There was nothing preventing you from building a company from scratch, negotiating debt & equity like they have, getting all of the structural work done, identifying suitable

Locations, negotiating Power arrangements, partners, offtake agreement….. it’s business FFS. It’s not a “problem” it’s bloody amazing what they’ve achieved and if you’ve been here a while at £0.61 average you’re going to be a millionaire in a few years. #justsaying

The Placing is to be conducted by way of a Bookbuild in accordance with the terms and conditions set out in Appendix I. The Bookbuild will be launched immediately following this Announcement. The Company expects to close the Bookbuild no later than 7.00 a.m. on 24 April 2026, but the Bookrunners and the Company reserve the right to close the Bookbuild earlier or later, without further notice.

Today’s SP is based on a Market Cap of around £45m and a program of “promises full of risk”.

Tomorrows SP is based on a fully funded project, a pre PPA agreement on Yguazu, a locked in development partner and a pipeline in 3-5 years of $75m EBITDA from Villeta & Yguazu alone…. It doesn’t consider management fees and Atome Power EBITDA as it also comes online.

What do you think the Market Cap looks like now?

Sell if you like!! It’ll be a gift to the institutional buyers (and me for that matter).

The placing does NOT dictate the SP. Tomorrow will open as today closed IMO.

I agree point 1…. I suspect free carry will be >20%

Regards point 2…. Think PPA is still not signed so possible it could be increased, but I think probably unlikely.

More likely, I suspect is that strategic investment moves new projects more quickly and more of them. I suspect we’ll see market demanding projects in Brazil, Peru will be on the pipeline, but also given the reference recently to Vision Invest meeting with Peter in Washington and their significant interest in African countries then expanding the model to places with large hydro capacity is possible.

I think the most exciting period will be after FID as interest in the PLC and not the SPV is also a factor.

I agree with @kid1 here. We are discussing Villeta. Likelihood of any additional PLC funding IMO is 0.00001% for the reasons I have explained.

Will an issue EVER be required, but it won’t be “Massive”

The fertilizer project model is at SPV level with strategic leadership. Atome PLC could theoretically choose to increase their stake above the free carry, but IMO it’s unlikely.

Atome Power - unconnected from the fertilizer funding model and may require more from the PLC so possible that a small raise is needed.

Future projects, requiring additional funding for PPA, FEED etc, as part of an expanded portfolio? - possible/probable but not “massive” by any measure.

Other overhead costs on the PLC? - they run extremely lean. The overhead for projects is not much, so while possible it will not be “massive”

Possible invite to 3rd Party Strategic investors, for example Vision Invest - possible, and maybe sensible too given their value. Even if an additional 20m shares were issued for this, the value would be immediately greater than the dilution.

These numbers are wrong…

We know $244m

HY24 committed $115m (Not $100)

Free carry $60m

Yara $ ? - I would guess $10-20

Casale $ ? - again, expect $10-12

A.N.Other

Local A.N.Other

If Atome were contributing at the PLC level this would have been an agenda item on the EGM

Dilution of any sort is not required, especially for Villeta.

@chromo I think you're releasing hares for no reason. The Equity is at SPV level. The agenda you shared about the meeting in Atome Paraguay is explicit.

Point 3 - Amendments of articles and association and increase of capital.....

This refers to the Capital being injected by HY24, YARA etc as a strategic partners in the SPV. If Atome were contributing capital from the PLC then it would have to state so, by referencing any capitalisation by existing shareholders and it does not!!

There is simply zero reason for Atome PLC to contribute more Equity, it would be a terrible business decision when the PLC needs to fund other projects later. There is only 1 circumstance I can see for any dilution.... that is that an Equity investor (Vision Invest, for example) also wants a share of the PLC. In this case they could issue new shares, but in that event a partner like Vision Invest would massively increase the value of Atome and any "dilution" would be negated immediately.

IMO - It's just not going to happen.

Likewise announcement wasn’t just “great” it was a stonking quarter. Their performance really shines a light on the “Market Conditions” claimed by Headlam

Good luck

Well that’s annoying!!

3. Friday → The communiqués and the announcements

Friday is the day when:

• IMFC (International Monetary and Financial Committee) meets formally

• Development Committee meets formally

• Press conferences are held

• Agreements, financing packages, and contract awards are released publicly

This is the moment when:

• Negotiations from Wed–Thu are finalised

• All parties are physically present

• Global press is assembled

• The official communiqués are issued

This is why Friday is the traditional “news drop” day.

---

🧭 What this means for your question

If a company, sovereign, or multilateral is planning a major announcement, the statistically normal pattern is:

→ Friday release

Often timed to:

• 07:00 UK time for listed companies (RNS)

• 10:00–14:00 Washington time for IMF/WB press events

I hope so!!

Contracts will be today, Press release tomorrow

£1.15 - £1.30 base

£1.40 - £1.60 if demand is high. There is a tiny tiny float & we’ve seen MM’s trying to fill their books like mad the last 72 hours.

Looks like Thursday / Friday is the expected timeline for Paraguay / LatAM discussions. Full schedule is behind a paywall, but this would seem to support a 7 day extension to 17th.

B. Energy‑transition and climate‑finance sessions

Paraguay is now a case study country for:

• Hydropower‑anchored industrialisation

• Green hydrogen/ammonia export potential

• Low‑carbon agro‑industry

These sessions are usually Thursday–Friday, often closed‑door, and attended by:

• IDB

• IFC

• MIGA

• Climate Investment Funds (CIF)

• Green Climate Fund (GCF)

• Private‑sector investors in energy transition