Member Info for KeithOz

The 'sleeping Giant' post on Reddit was written more than two years ago, and much has happened since. I suggest that its main value today is in providing a broad overview of the Morocco opportunity, and a good explanation of geological concepts such as poroperm, flow rates etc. As such, it still provides interesting background, but the Guercif-specific material has been superseded by a CPR and an ITR, which I suggest you should read for the latest interpretation.

I'm not sure what 'subsequent events' you are referring to. We all know that getting it out of the ground is taking longer and is proving more problematic than hoped for, but for some here to state that it will never happen is an unlikely scenario.

I still firmly believe there is huge amount of gas on the Guercif licence. Since it is in a politically stable jurisdiction, with outstanding tax treatment, close to substantial infrastructure and a hungry market, the economics should be excellent. With that scale of financial opportunity, folks will be doing everything practicable to get the CNG project(s) and industrial gas project up and running. Helium is an as yet unknown (to me) upside.

Ksar Hadada was drilled unsuccessfully by Petroceltic back in the noughties. IRG tried again in the teenies, under the command of no less than Steve Staley, who moved on to become chairman of PRD. A number of interesting prospects were identified prior to Scotforth involvement. They confirmed the presence of substantial hydrocarbons and identified additional prospects. I don't know why no further work was done. Sound spin-off Echo then became operators, led by the legitimate businessman James Parsons, but pulled out in 2019. I am not aware of any further award of the licence. If this is indeed the licence in question, given the string of unsuccessful work over a twenty-year period, I hope that Paul proceeds cautiously.

@Granit - I think you mean with zero credibility. The link JH gave is just to the LSE, if you go to the PRD page,

https://www.londonstockexchange.com/stock/PRD/predator-oil-gas-holdings-plc/trade-recap

and look at daily volume, it is quite clear that total volume yesterday was slightly over 6M, of which a lot more than half were buys. So far today there have been less than 0.7M sells. JH's own claimed data source proves that he is just making this up.

I've checked out the trade data. There haven't been 6M shares sold in total since the RNS yesterday, so please present your supposed source of information, or admit that you are just making this stuff up to suit your trading agenda.

I was confused as to why ONHYM had a swabbing unit and why PRD did not get preferential use. On asking around, it seems that this is being used for water wells, strange as that may sound. Much of Morocco has a chronic water shortage, and many of the existing water wells are clogged with mud and not producing. To rectify this, high pressure air or water is blown down to stir up the mud. The fine particles suspended in the water can then be swabbed as per normal.

Water shortage has become a political hot potato. When you read some of the complaints in the comments of online Morocco news outlets, you can understand why ensuring supply is a key priority.

Oh, re. the suggestion that PRD use an ordinary crane for swabbing, the nearest analogy I can think of is putting your hand down the toilet in an attempt to sort out a problem at the local sewerage works. Enjoy your breakfast.

I have more productive things to do with my time than trawl through 10+ pages of negativity, so probably some of what I will write has already been covered by others. Here's my thoughts to ignore or laugh at:

❎I don't like discounted placings that dilute my holding, and I don't like Novum doing them.

✅I am happy that this has gone to a single institutional investor:

✳️ This is very likely to be a Moroccan entity who can open doors

✳️They will have done extensive due diligence before putting down their money, so they (who effectively have inside knowledge) believe in the project, unlike some here who do not believe, and have very little knowledge.

✳️The share price is not likely to continue declining due to placing flippers as often happens.

✳️ They have effectively bought a 12.5% stake at 6.5p, with £3.2M to come from options exercise.

✅Paul has not lied about finances, as some here have wrongly stated. Finishing the MOU-3 testing programme as previously announced, drilling MOU-5, and workovers for 2 C-M wells were all covered by existing funds.

✅The funds raised yesterday are for additional work - ffs read the bloody RNS before sounding off.

✳️The shallow, high pressure section of MOU-3 was not on the original testing programme - indeed it was clearly stated to be an additional, possibly standalone, CNG project - with extent of 58km²

✳️If you are going to be serious about finding He, it makes sense to use multiple exploration techniques.

✳️Also sensible to look at Jurassic carbonate structure further appraisal with MOU-6, so you can follow on quickly.

✳️Irish General Election likely to be called for Friday November 29th, Greens will not be part of government, an expedited Corrib South approval probable early Q1, so best to be prepared to move immediately.

✳️The T&T acquisition looks very cheap, and lays the foundation for expanding a profitable business that will not require much management time. It will be nice to have some money coming in for a change. Dissemination of the CO2 EOR work should help to drum up some extra business that can be run as a separate services operation.

✳️The opportunity in Tunisia could be very large. I would prefer PRD to get at least one operation sold off before spreading management time more thinly, but assume this outlay gets a foot in the door without the need for further expenditure or operations until at least the back end of 2025, so hopefully this will not be a problem.

Move to Australia.

@HawaytheRRE gets the geology Professor Emeritus award for today. The only thing I would add is that there are two issues with MOU-3. One is formation damage, due to the interaction of the unusual strata with the wrong drilling mud. Paul was quite clear in the interview that his has been successfully overcome with Sandjet. The second (current) MOU-3 issue is water influx, together with fine mud particles. The pressure exerted by the weight of this 1.5km column of yuck is greater than the gas pressure in the reservoir strata. This is quite a common problem, with many wells requiring swabbing - the swabbing unit was described amusingly by a fellow shareholder as a bucket on a very long piece of string.

MOU-5 is a shallow drill, and is very unlikely to intersect the volcanic ash and expanding clay sequences seen in the other boreholes. The Jurassic is unusually close to the surface and overlain by a completely different rock type. I can't guarantee that a gas/water contact will not be intersected - that would allow water entry which would need to be removed by the same swabbing unit as for MOU-3. The other potential flow problem with carbonates is caused by a cement-like coating to the inside of the borehole caused by drill friction - this is usually readily resolved with an acid wash.

I would also expect that advice will be given by both John Tingas and Zenith on overall borehole design & engineering, drilling mud, etc. I repeat that my own intentions are not to sell any PRD shares until either PG sells them for me by corporate action, or until there are at least 4 holes poked into MOU-5. Of course, others will have different strategies.

Since the Vox markets interview last week has been proven to be de facto price sensitive information, I requested early yesterday that the company make a formal announcement that clarifies the apparent ambiguities presented. Your guess is as good as mine as to whether we get anything. If nothing is forthcoming, maybe others might like to contact the company secretary and the PR company rather than just moaning on here.

info@predatoroilandgas.com

info@camarco.co.uk

I normally take no notice of conspiracy theories, but when a group of known share price manipulators all come out with the same untrue stuff on the same day, and use each other as reference that it must be 'fact', then even the most benevolent of folk must suspect that there is malevolent intent.

Tim Kempster on X says "Based on interims annual G&A expenses: £2,399,486 * 2 = £4,798,972So, PRD spends approximately £4.8 million on G&A each year. Add in explo/testing costs I conclude they are skint and raising very soon despite what he says on Vox podcasts"

My response was "Shame you can't read a financial statement. 6-month G & A was £1,041,529, including substantial one-offs. Of course you know this, but it doesn't fit your agenda to present facts, does it?"

I see that SOU has partnered with GeTech to look for hydrogen & helium. You wouldn't do that unless both parties think that there's a good chance that Morocco actually has some. GeTech is pretty highly rated, from CEO Richard Bennett:

"We look forward to collaborating with Sound Energy to unlock the potential of natural hydrogen and helium resources in Morocco. Our advanced geoscience solutions and AI capabilities will play a crucial role in driving cost-effective exploration in this highly promising region."

https://www.londonstockexchange.com/news-article/SOU/exploration-collaboration-agreement/16734119

Perhaps Paul Griffiths isn't as stupid as some here would like you to think.

Short answer: Sorry to burst the bubble, this data does not indicate methane from testing MOU-3.

Long answer: Correlation does not equal causation. The Sentinel-5P satellite does not detect surface methane, but down throughout the whole troposphere column, which is up to 10 - 16km deep. This means that the levels of methane detected do not necessarily originate from the spot below the reading. If you zoom out from the link kindly supplied by Zebra, you will see that on that day, high methane levels were recorded across much of North Africa and southern Europe - this quantity could not possibly have come from MOU-3, even when certain posters get their calculations wildly wrong.

If you run a time sequence, you will see that the methane movement corresponds with the prevailing winds, which at these latitudes are from the west. This can be seen quite clearly from 17th September to late October, when the first detection of high-level methane is on the western seaboard of Spain, then moves easterly across the whole of north Africa. High levels of methane were recorded over most of the Sahara Desert and as far south as the ITCZ throughout October.

The origin of atmospheric methane can be geological (natural gas seepage from below ground); biological (rotting vegetation and bovine flatulence); or anthropogenic (leaks from O & G, cement making, and other industries).

So how do we explain the high levels of methane seen intermittently over the vast areas where to the best of my knowledge there is no gas extraction or even deposits, little vegetation to rot, and no cows passing wind? I suspect that this stuff is blown across the Atlantic from the US, trapped within a specific level of the troposphere, perhaps as a result of atmospheric thermoclines.

Now that you guys are on winter time, I am 10 hours ahead, so it is close to my bedtime. T & T is an interesting one, despite what others may say - but I suspect they have not done the sums. We need to look beyond just our own Jacobin-1 & Snowcap. Trinidad has been producing oil for longer than just about anywhere else, and the O & G industry has two major problems - fields are largely depleted, and tax rates & royalties are high.

PRD have three aces -

* Monopoly rights to the only source of bulk CO2 in the country, and expertise in using that to enhance oil recovery from partially-depleted fields. This can be supplied as a service using a specialist, separately run team that does not use up exploration time, personnel or funds.

* Vast tax credits - so PRD can buy or lease at no cost additional assets that are marginally profitable, utilise the tax credits to make them profitable again, and split the profit with the original owners.

* The potential to apply new technologies such as NuTech logging analysis and Sandjet perforation to identify missed horizons in existing wells. I do realise that they have to validate this by getting the Guercif wells to start producing 😁.

Despite the last two posts concerning T & T and Ireland, I would reiterate that I think the big money is in Morocco, and that PRD is still on track, albeit behind schedule, to get there.

@Howarda, you logically ask for your first option - Is there gas or no gas, and if no gas, they should give up - I agree. However, your second option is the correct one - there is plenty of gas - read RNSs of 13th & 27th June 2023, then listen to this interview:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=thyYwq0VXTA

1.38 "The first surprise that we got is that when we started drilling MOU-3 was that we found shallow high pressure gas at around 339 - 352m ... the flow into the well was significant ... what was amazing about that well was that every single target we passed through there was an indication of gas and it confirmed to us that the overall structural picture that we had decided to test in this well was valid right from the top of the sequence to the bottom of the sequence, and most importantly it showed that gas had migrated all the way up to the top of the sequence, so anything in contact with that charging system was charged with gas."

The issue is difficulty getting the gas that is there to flow at a commercial rate. Despite what many here would like you to believe, initiating flow is a common problem. Predator are addressing this issue, patience is required. Unfortunately, many commentors here are short-term traders, so patience is not one of their defining character traits.

I am KeithOz you pillock.

@Bueglow - you say "It is a dubious prospect, reliant on a sequence of events entirely beyond the company's control, and which go against the grain in terms of current political headwinds. Even if a Government were elected who were amenable to such a development and hydrocarbons more generally, there are a multitude of options other than CS."

I don't know your level of knowledge and operational experience of these matters, but it appears that at least two entities with intimate involvement in these issues disagree with you:

1. One of the entities who own Corrib have approached PRD and entered into a farm-in agreement, awaiting approval of the licence.

2. The responsible department of the Irish government has issued this paper: "Securing Ireland's Gas Supplies", which can be downloaded from: assets.gov.ie. From their conclusion:

"6.37. Gas will play a key role to support the secure transition to an energy system based on electrification and greatly increased renewables penetration. Reducing gas demand and increasing renewable gas production will reduce the impact of Ireland’s risk but the risks themselves will remain for at least a decade. The impact of any significant unplanned

reduction in the country’s gas supplies would have severe economic and social impacts.

6.38. The Department’s overall assessment is that the existing policy on natural gas is not adequate to address the range of risks considered fully and therefore ensure security of our gas supplies in the medium to long-term. While five key risks have been identified and considered in detail, other risks could emerge. Aside from reducing demand and increasing renewable gas, the key tools for gas supply risk management are diversity of supplies and increasing gas storage. These tools, which other Member States have utilised, have secured Europe’s gas supplies over the course of the last year in the face of a major disruption to gas supplies from Russia. Ireland’s diversity of supply is very limited and it has no gas storage.

6.39. Furthermore, the State is operating outside legal requirements set out in EU legislation".

The only reason PRD's Successor Authorisation has not been converted to a full licence is that Eamonn Ryan is still Energy Minister. The next General Election is very likely to be November 29th (2024), and it is a near certainty that the next coalition government will not include the Greens. It will take a few weeks for the new guys to get their feet under the big table, so expect the licence authorisation & farmout to come in January - maybe earlier if a cold winter.

You also say: "Ireland is of little consequence unless and until it happens." Maybe, but when it does, and it is likely to be very soon, think how much Moroccan drilling even 25% of my 25% estimate would pay for.

There are several folk here who post several (sometimes many) times a day, always suggesting negative things about a company in which they claim to be invested. I don't know if this is because they are just craving any kind of attention, whether they are traders believing that they can convince others to sell and thus lower the share price, or if they are part of a coordinated effort to undermine the company. One in particular claims to have O & G industry knowledge, and leverages that in an attempt to give his negative projections some credibility. I've just been catching up having been away, some examples from the past few days' work from just this one person:

22 Oct 2024 09:10 "Lot on here are going to look very silly when it becomes actual reality that mou5 is not funded from available cash on hand"

Paul confirmed today that MOU-5 is fully funded.

17 Oct 2024 10:12 "Sorry to burst your bubbles, SJ requires compression, I also imagine as it’s the only one in country imo a back up compressor would certainly be part of the SJ spread."

Sandjet doesn't use a compressor, it uses a triplex pump.

21 Oct 2024 11:46 From a long rant claiming that MOU-5 will cost more monet than PRD has: "The jurassic is the deepest geological formation in our previous drills yes or no ?"

A. No, it is the oldest, but is relatively shallow due to uplift.

"deeper = longer drilling and more cost in casing , tubing and logging yes or no ?"

A. No, it isn't deeper, see above.

"If we are sitting on massive gas zones in the shallower formations which most on here say is near certain ,, then drilling through these zones will require considerable diligence and mud /fluids control, this is more cost yes or no ?"

A. No, there are not expected to be shallower gas zones above the Jurassic - take a look at any of the seismic slices. Therefore, all the suppositions made by this poster to support the position that MOU-5 will be an expensive well are incorrect.

Today 08:34 "SJ has not worked , swabbing is now the very last option open before a new well/ side tracks is the only option left and original wellbore are P and A`d ."

I, and others, have already pointed out that this is nonsense, swabbing is routine.

Today 10.22 "Funny though that none of the experts here mentioned previously that specialist swabbing ops would maybe be required after sand jet operations"

Actually there have been multiple mentions of the likelihood of one or more of a range of follow-on treatments, not least on p.12 of the 14th March presentation, under 'Phase 2 Rigless Testing Objectives' - "Consider using cleaning agents to stimulate initial flow and well cleanup"

This demonstrates the importance of doing your own research.

Posted by Adthorn, this is an excellent AI summary of the situation, and usually I am not at all impressed by AI summaries.

"I’ve been inputting the last 6 months rns’s into chat gpt and based on the interview this morning, I asked the following:

Would You Swab if There Were No Chance of Flow?

Swabbing is only performed if there’s an expectation that the well has the potential to flow, particularly after some form of intervention (e.g., perforation, stimulation, or damage repair). If the well was believed to have no potential to flow, swabbing wouldn’t be a logical step because it would simply remove fluids without any prospect of inducing reservoir flow.

Here’s why:

• Reservoir Potential: If a reservoir has no hydrocarbons or if the formation damage is too severe, swabbing won’t help establish flow. Operators usually perform swabbing when they believe there is enough reservoir pressure or recoverable hydrocarbons that could flow once the wellbore fluids are removed.

• Cost and Effort: Swabbing is an operational expense, and companies wouldn’t spend resources on it if they believed there was no chance of flow. The fact that Predator is moving forward with swabbing indicates that they expect the well to produce, based on the results from the Sandjet perforation and pressure buildup.

• Post-Perforation Process: After successful perforation, it’s common to swab a well to clean out fluids and help the formation “kick” (i.e., start flowing), especially if pressure buildup has been observed.

Conclusion:

Swabbing is a positive sign that Predator expects gas flow from MOU-3. It suggests that the Sandjet work was effective in connecting the well to the gas-bearing formation. If there were no chance of flow, they wouldn’t proceed with swabbing. Therefore, this step indicates confidence in the well’s potential to flow gas once the remaining fluids are cleared out."

Q.E.D.

Disinformation appearing here straight away.

This is what Paul said from 08.03 "So we deployed Sandjet in the summer. Sandjet was SUCCESSFUL in perforating the top and bottom of this biogenic gas interval and that was the first time we ACHIEVED that"..."we then allowed the well hopefully to naturally clean up and allow the PRESSURE MONITORING with downhole gauges for the last two months". You can't monitor pressure if there is no gas. The issue is that fluids are inhibiting optimal flow.

Swabbing is a very common practice (almost every well will require it) and is for removing FLUIDS that are inhibiting gas flow. Sometimes you have to swab two or more times, sometimes swabbing is required every few months, It is most definitely NOT a 'last resort' as is being claimed on here. The delay is in getting hold of the swab unit.

January could be very interesting - CNG, MOU-5, Cory Moruga production & a Corrib South licence.

Everything Everywhere All At Once.