Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
Had time to review the presentation by CH and it certainly seemed like he was being very clear and direct that there is 'potentially' terrific value coming in the Short to Mid-term (6 - 12 months) IMO. So on the back of the pipeline status and previous deals within the biotech field what are peoples realistic opinions on the following, if they present good data in the short term.
SCIB1 - $2-3bn license deal - $500m - $1bn upfront
SciB 2 - $500m license deal - $100m upfront
Modi 1 - $500m license deal - $100m upfront
Modi 2 - $50-$100m license $minor up front
Platforms (IMO I think if these are of interest they would be taken lock n stock, not licensed/partnered)- Hard obviously but could be valued up to $500m each, possibly $1bn for Moditiope if it's as good as the science sounds and IMO is the jewel in the crown of the platforms.
Always hard to debate and value things in this arena, but I have a mind set that SCLP should at some stage 'all being well' be worth not less than a quid a share and possibly a huge amount more...it just depends when and how I not to sure on! Any of the above successes could see a lot of value added here.
Anyway GLA
Watching the SP flop and no back up or support from the BOD with PR or buys.... LTHs got to be feeling a bit used right now...well I am anyway. But, good things may come still, I don’t believe for a second that the IP and research data is worth nothing.... we might just be taken out very cheaply due to the inability of converting promise to price! GLA
Ah Chelsea, just letting my patience n frustration get on top a little... yes in truth we are where we were before taking on new team members, so there must be valuable work for them to do!! I’ll be here till an end point, you know that already. We’ll keep pushing on !
In confidence to all invested i feel to say, not sure what exactly wasnt appealing enough to get a prize! Seems like the BOD really need to motor on and engage real investment from some of the major players, otherwise its going to be a potential huge waste of time and opportunity missed to really test this apparently great compunds and data!
Disappointed!!
Top and bottom is again the poor communication and updates with the market from the company. The fact that they continue to claim they do not know when milestone payments are activated on a deal they are involved in beggars belief. The lack of PR regards the clinical progress on some of the removed and seemingly forgotten data is very poor and you do have to question whether or not they really are ever going to get passed 1 or 2p again. As a LTH I have an average of around half the current, but it is very frustrating the way the last 6-12months have not progressed where it might have. Just wanting some answers and some encouraging noise from the BOD. Anyway, we can keep hoping, but it will frustrate always. GLA
So I've been thinking...like any of us, we are all wondering what the next news will be and what impact it will have on the SP. Now, this is probably absolute BS, but thoughts lead you to strange outcomes lol!
I was thinking if any licencing or TO deals are struck then the CRUK probably have a clause in that any awards money is refunded (argument being - progression can now be funded by other means/parties).
If the outcome of the GC is an award for the team then surely as many have said it supports great data and potential of the work - in which cause you would assume either or both Genentech and Biontech would look to make some kind of licence/partnering deal!
Could it be that there some negotiations in place already (as data must be known for all the GC work now) and they are just waiting for the GC announcements, CRUK pledge the money, but get disposed of the commitment very soon after because of a deal.
My thoughts being CRUK in affect award the money knowing they don't have to follow through, thus giving them extra finances for other things?
So I'm going for a GC first place and then announcement of a deal that is potentially close or already finalised in the first quarter of 2019??
Anyway how's that for a story, all rubbish I think, but you never know - GLA
If there is truth in the SVS pre-selling the placing shares..which does seem plausible, it is a way for an interested party to accumulate shares at a constant, rather than a risk that the influx of buying would raise the SP above what they wanted to invest. They have affectively guaranteed buying X amount at nothing more than the prevailing SP rate was when the placing news came, but needed a broker to do that for them and hence the fees being worked by a lower placing value to the broker? Not that I know much about these things but sometimes the simple view is plausible. Anyway, I hope the SP starts to progress again soon, as it seems we have some good products for clinical licences. AIMO GLA
This is where they do not seem to be doing their job on a PR and even company stability front for investors.
Granted, a delay like this isn't down to them, but if the company had better sentiment around it and also reinforced and communicated better with the positives then I feel the SP would be sitting higher even after the same delay news. I.E, if we had been at 15/16p, we could still be above the last placement levels...which at the time many thought were already ridiculously low! Tis nearly the bah humbug season....GLA
Thoth, your new target...if you can see it getting to £1, how long do you envisage that to take. What would you target right now for a TO or what would you be happy with for a TO inside the next 6months? Just trying to gauge potential with reality and timescales. Thanks
Inan...I know there's plenty going on and I am here because I believe it will all come good and will be to a substantial deal or licence is done. It's just that the lack of momentum and now reduced value since the placing is not at all where I think most long termers thought it would be. Have a good weekend.
Since the placing at 12p the PR from SCLP has been abysmal and I guess justifiably (market sentiment wise) the SP has slipped to this ridiculous level. All those that invested at the last placement should be rightly expecting better from the BOD to drive the communications and PR and therefore SP. Instead of forward momentum, we are getting a slide in value and sentiment when SCLP are arguably due some decent news before the year end. Getting more frustrated having no more spare cash to get some cheap shares as I used it for the placing....silly me !! GLA
Again no real positive spin on things, just the bog standard information. The BOD really do not care about the SP and Mcap of the company, which is very strange considering that the last funding option used was a placing and there is a possibility that a further one could be required down the line. The lack of positive PR, upbeat statements and general communication of exactly what is where is only ever going to hurt the market sentiment...therefore SP, therefore lower placing values...if that occurs again. Should have driven the SP last time round prior to the placing and either raised more or diluted less. It's baffling to say the least that the SP was once 3 times where we are today and we have supposedly come on leaps and bounds on the science and data!!! Frustrating ... GLA for the latter part of the year now!
If only it was a done deal! We need some good news here shortly or SP will start to decline again.
NDA's are seemingly are worst enemy at the moment, but maybe if the BOD didn't agree to non-disclosure of data and or result related PR clauses it would A) make the majors speed up there DD and decision making process and B) alienate us PI's with a faltering SP and subjective market sentiment.
I'm all for giving potential partners close inside access to data and results as obviously that is what they need to make their next move....however I wish SAR could still promote and bang the drums a little bit more than they are doing! GLA
and a kick in the balls for all holders, but especially LTH's. We have already been through this process and it was on the hopes of it being a last dilution before wither milestone payments or licence deals would then feed any future research spending. I would rather they sell now of 5-10p than dilute and it be another 2/3 yrs for 20p p/s or Mcap equivalent. I do not feel that SAR have the requirements to take their products much further than they already have and thus need to be looking further partnership or a buy out. I was hoping to stay in here until there is a buy out, but a placing will further knock confidence that the BOD can actually get this to materialise. All IMO and GLA