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And the consolidation, been absolutely hammered since then. BOD has either been strung along themselves on some ego/BS hype advice by PH and what the would achieve or they really have no business acumen whatsoever. Was looking really good before the consolidation, now looks like a dog's dinner being used to feed the leaches. I have been long term and hold till results/TO all along, however, wish I'd had better investing acumen myself to trade these when I should despite my overall goal. all we can hope is that results are great and we get bought out for something that has no resemblance to the current SP/MC.
It's good to see, but the TD value has been higher than the SP for a while now and yet we haven't gotten close to it. It's such a disappointment to me that we haven't and can't seem to get and stay between 25-30pps here. Very happy with the update and there sure is a lot going on and progressing, wish the sp would reflect some of this progression and even possibly at some point some of the further potential. GLA
Apologies for what may be a sunny question but where are we progress/trial status wise in comparison to the recent deals being signed with the small bios? I get a little confused at how certain bios appear to be massively valued against where we sit and believe to be undervalued. Thanks Iām advance for any clarity cheers. HNY and GLA for this year!
Well having been unable to organize myself for the capital raise I managed a small top up today of a little under 6k shares around half the allowance. All the Ā£ I have available at the moment but glad to add at this level. Looking forward to hopefully the pivotal year to at least partly value certain products Sclp have. Targeting 50p by mid- year with an additional licence or two signed. Then a snowball for a Ā£1 year endā¦ unless TO comes upā¦ then Ā£2-5 depending on interested parties bidding. GLA and HNY
I think at that stage, there would be less likelihood of a Pharma licensing and a full TO would ensue; why commit to a large royalty % if they believe it will be effective. I'd also be hopeful it wouldn't be a single Pharma interested, as such you could add an additional premium for one outbidding another/others. They may as well take the the whole thing and everything else SCLP has ongoing at the same time for a significant premium - Anything around $3/5BN for the full shop wouldn't be an overreach for a keen (desperate) Pharma to secure a significantly de-risked product, platforms and patent lifespan. Anyway, less dreaming for me and more work :).
Well, all the delays and extending the timeline for additional data requests and phases of trials have certainly thrown out my hope of a T/O or substantial licence this year. Still thinking as long as the results and data continues in it's current manner there is still that outcome but maybe another 12-18 months for a final showdown so to speak. However, the good news is that the data will be more accurate and numerous as we go through 2024 and as such my target $2-$4 share price leans further to the $4 the longer into 2024, possibly 2025 it goes. Anyway, still here for the end game as I believe most are, GLA, frustrating at times, but also interesting times ahead. (forgive the $, i'm too lazy to get the pound sing code) :)
So it's looking like the recent data updates are certainly positive and may be very near or have already met the threshold for a Pharma to do some serious number crunching on valuing a license or take over offer. Will there be a a cheeky initial offer by anyone to test the waters at HQ for deal / TO appetite or will any self respecting suitor rather stump up a competitive offer to try and secure things without a bidding war? I'm hoping for a competitive bidding war, but maybe it's too optimistic :). Whilst I can see the route of licenses and deals per platform for maximising the potential here preferred by the BOD, I do wonder if it a TO is now more likely than ever as a Pharma could look at the risk of investment being spread over several platforms. Looking clearer than ever that at some point in the not too distant future there's going to be some serious action here...... well AIMO!
Nice recap, there is so much to look forward to and hopefully it just takes one good news dropā¦. Iām hoping for Genmab milestone news tbhā¦ to really start a good push here. This deal already shows there is great potential in the glymab platform. If you do the mathsā¦ if successful this license alone is worth 60p in purely milestone cash received value. The fact the molecule was at the time one of five in the platform would propel the potential way past that value on any future license of those. If this one progresses successfully to the next milestone(s) we could be looking at a multi $Bn + value platform if taken out imo. Hoping Genmab are flying this along!!
I do think we are now longer at another period of silence from the board given the āupdateā provided and would appreciate a sincere effort to keep SH up to date and in the loop as much as they can whilst the SP is taking a kicking with no real PR from the BOD to maintain it. Still in it to win it and final outcomesā¦ BUT it is becoming rinse and repeatā¦ the PR around the Genmab license should have been much much better as many have already said. Time to look after the SP and the science in tandem!
Iād possibly take Ā£1 if it was only for Modi -1 license ā¦ I have a (hopefully realistic) Ā£3-Ā£5 value ear marked for an entire takeoutā¦ once either Modi-1 or SCIB1 show good results as it shows Scancell have the science right. If it goes the way of individual licenses then Ā£1 value may be in the ball mark depending on stage licensed, unless there are competing pharmas. Any extraordinary results and you can double or triple the values IMO. Anyway, we will see when we see ; ).
This is why I feel I have a realistic valuation of the company of $3B for a full takeover if it were to happen in the next 12 months with maybe another one or two similar license delas in play, because of that repetitive validation potential with the platforms held here.
That goes out of the window if Modi presents the amazing humanised results it did in mice, then I'd say, 'who knows'. Sometimes wish I'd actively traded this to maximise profit and holding, but since I invested, I've done so on a **** or bust till the end ...or a very significant value if there is the TO scenario. And that's not to say i don't care amount my investment - it's more that I am happy to be in until there is that possible 'huge' outcome to reap the rewards.
Not saying the above will happen, but my thoughts on the potential with the license deal showing validation of the IP here, which if we get another similar would firm up the idea that you can simply multiply what molecules/anti-bodies are left by deal numbers already done.
It will be interesting to see how speedily this first license progresses. GLA
Nice to have one with a āMajorā and left wondering what it entailsā¦ time or stage of progress limited? Did any further details of the previous agreements become known? Also wondering where they are at now. Hereās hoping for early licences on the platform to generate some commercial thrust m.
We can only hope so....in terms of SP this passed year......three quick steps forward and 3 drawn out steps back... wish I had the trading initiative to try to accummulate more shares through buying and selling requlary, but here for the end game and it'll be **** or bust. It is a little depressing to look in here this last month though Ughh! Anyway GLA and hoping to see Ā£1 SP at some point, and I'll be out out...previous targets Ā£2/3 just seem too far away now for me.
Ah same old same old...seems SCLP can never keep a positive sentiment going, even when news is there to then add some nice PR too. LTH's are used to this being the case now, but it doesn't make it less frustrating for us. When we think things are turning the corner, the BOD has rarely helped on the PR front with any prolonged drive.
There is explosive potential, however, previously while i was hoping for a total company value of approx $3Bn ($1Bn for each major pipeline ish). I'd take $1Bn this year for a TO...it's simply been too long in the making and waiting endlessly, but of course not saying it isn't worth more, just being realistic of where the BOD can actually get the SP/MCAP. Even a seemingly paltry $1 sp would be a tempting exit point for me personally now. Each to their own tho and GLA.
SAR Bod had very little to do with the agreement made with Sierra, this was negogiated by CRUK. Even the more recent re-negogiation probably allowed very little input from SAR again. At the time of the agreement I'm sure CRUK were told all that they wanted to hera with regards to how Sierra would progress into clinical trials only for that to now obviously have been half truths at best. The data for combos is there and is likley what will be the commercialisation of 737, but it's been a frustrating wait for all. Hoping news comes of concrete progression ideally before xmas, othwerwise early 2022.
Frustrating also to see the SP slide and no visible attempt by the BOD to stop this and give further updates, however, it's a murky old world this Pharma sector and it's also at times painfully slow when you have been teased with some great potential surfacing.
GLA, maybe not the xmas time joy we were hoping for, but 'one day rodney'
Thatās the positive, looks to be coming back in some formā¦ does anyone know moreā¦ anyone at the AGM?
That large 'Buy' is the sale of the options, shows as a buy due to timing and sp spread at the time it was reported.
Feel this is just a clearing up of exercising options as they can and the potential to be in a closed period in the coming weeks when they woul dbe unable to undertake the same. GLA
Thanks for highlighting that a downside exists, but it's not mentioned here because any halfwit can tell you that the downside of a small bio is a 100% loss. Most people here have that half of a brain and are fully aware, so no need to mention...it'd be like saying 'Do you know the night sky is black? The licensing and TO deals are currently for pre-clinical pipelines and yes $Billions have been spent by Major pharmas on those and this is what we are here for currently - hence the optimissim with the current IP and patent coberage SAR have with historic data being nothing but positive. GLA LTH's
Notalot - Best wishes also and anyone else currently dealing with a horrible disease.
Not really with you on that line of thoughtā¦ sure if we had no RNS abs the usual steady sentiment today would not be bad but having had the RNS this IMO should be up. Trials have been know you stop before theyāve even started, so itās still very good news, which I donāt feel has been included already due to the difficulties of recruiting and starting trials in the current environment. Looking for a 10-15% rise here in the next couple of weeks as further positions are taken by interested parties. GLA