Member Info for keiny1

Sooooo ready for a positive update here hopefully. Ideally it will underpin a minimum SP north of 30p before additional news this year.

Still optimistic (or maybe just LTH fatigued :)) that SCLP are headed for one or two significant commercial inflexion points this year with a major partnership / listing or Takeover in 2027. Timings seem to be aligning for clinical updates and industry need for the next step with regards longer term treatment pathway and type of treatment options.

Anyway, still here and waiting - GLA and thanks fo rall the informative posts as we go!

A post I made August 20, 2024:

'Brief oversight albeit basic information, shows that it will likely be Redmile and Vulpes that in the end determine the size of the prize here. Am still of the opinion that a total take out needs to be in excess of $2B and likely nearer to $3B .

Each platform is potentially a $1B take out at this point if separately licensed. So you’d wonder if any Pharma wanting to take on 1 part of Scancell would simply take it all just to keep competition away also.

Anyway hoping the current optimism and pivot from the BOD (seemingly being commercially attentive now) turns into a TO in the next 12 months.'

Might not quite be on track for the total TO forecast, but might just potentially sneak it inside the year timeline for a Glymab platform partnership/buy-out and $1B still seems reasonable. GLA :)

GTL has been set up to cleanly and legally separate all IP associated with the Glymabs because Genmab have in fact found the 2 they have already in development are looking less risky and more commercially viable than when they made the original deals. Potentially they have had informal discussions as to how they can take full ownership of them, but are also interested in taking the lot to keep from other competitors also. SCLP have hopefully decided that a little hard ball play may work saying they are happy to see the milestones come in and increase the value of the remaining Glymabs in tow rather than selling out in full now and have pushed that with the new company set up to make it easier for other investment also. I think SCLP are happy for a Partnership deal, but also knowing it could make Genmab bite for a full take-out offer above previous thought levels in order to secure the whole IP and platform.

Anyway some optimistic scenario that SCLP are calling some shots for a change - GLA

Yes it always seems that SCLP have fallen short of really captivating the pharma partners and analysts to ensure a sustained rise. Shame, but hoping this changes shortly.... fingers crossed for at least 10x :) GLA

Https://stocks.apple.com/AlQEi5_dnRHW6ni07rOkZOg

Brief oversight albeit basic information, shows that it will likely be Redmile and Vulpes that in the end determine the size of the prize here. Am still of the opinion that a total take out needs to be in excess of $2B and likely nearer to $3B .

Each platform is potentially a $1B take out at this point if separately licensed. So you’d wonder if any Pharma wanting to take on 1 part of Scancell would simply take it all just to keep competition away also.

Anyway hoping the current optimism and pivot from the BOD (seemingly being commercially attentive now) turns into a TO in the next 12 months.

GLA

IMO I don't think a deal would get shareholder (including Vulpes) approval under $1, there's too much potential value to settle for that where we are currently and trials in progress. On the next significant positive news I feel $2-$3 for an overall TO is possible. However, even though I'd like the TO deal myself to finally get a full exit, I'm not sure, with the various avenues of development that is likely and think the buyout/licensing of molecules and or platforms is the preferred route for the BOD. Anyway GLA

So where are we estimating for next ‘actual news’ update? Hard to gauge where things are really at, at the moment which is another minor annoyance on top of the indifferent levels of clear communication from the BOD. Keep on holding, keep on hoping :)

And the consolidation, been absolutely hammered since then. BOD has either been strung along themselves on some ego/BS hype advice by PH and what the would achieve or they really have no business acumen whatsoever. Was looking really good before the consolidation, now looks like a dog's dinner being used to feed the leaches. I have been long term and hold till results/TO all along, however, wish I'd had better investing acumen myself to trade these when I should despite my overall goal. all we can hope is that results are great and we get bought out for something that has no resemblance to the current SP/MC.

It's good to see, but the TD value has been higher than the SP for a while now and yet we haven't gotten close to it. It's such a disappointment to me that we haven't and can't seem to get and stay between 25-30pps here. Very happy with the update and there sure is a lot going on and progressing, wish the sp would reflect some of this progression and even possibly at some point some of the further potential. GLA

Apologies for what may be a sunny question but where are we progress/trial status wise in comparison to the recent deals being signed with the small bios? I get a little confused at how certain bios appear to be massively valued against where we sit and believe to be undervalued. Thanks I’m advance for any clarity cheers. HNY and GLA for this year!

Well having been unable to organize myself for the capital raise I managed a small top up today of a little under 6k shares around half the allowance. All the £ I have available at the moment but glad to add at this level. Looking forward to hopefully the pivotal year to at least partly value certain products Sclp have. Targeting 50p by mid- year with an additional licence or two signed. Then a snowball for a £1 year end… unless TO comes up… then £2-5 depending on interested parties bidding. GLA and HNY

I think at that stage, there would be less likelihood of a Pharma licensing and a full TO would ensue; why commit to a large royalty % if they believe it will be effective. I'd also be hopeful it wouldn't be a single Pharma interested, as such you could add an additional premium for one outbidding another/others. They may as well take the the whole thing and everything else SCLP has ongoing at the same time for a significant premium - Anything around $3/5BN for the full shop wouldn't be an overreach for a keen (desperate) Pharma to secure a significantly de-risked product, platforms and patent lifespan. Anyway, less dreaming for me and more work :).

Well, all the delays and extending the timeline for additional data requests and phases of trials have certainly thrown out my hope of a T/O or substantial licence this year. Still thinking as long as the results and data continues in it's current manner there is still that outcome but maybe another 12-18 months for a final showdown so to speak. However, the good news is that the data will be more accurate and numerous as we go through 2024 and as such my target $2-$4 share price leans further to the $4 the longer into 2024, possibly 2025 it goes. Anyway, still here for the end game as I believe most are, GLA, frustrating at times, but also interesting times ahead. (forgive the $, i'm too lazy to get the pound sing code) :)

So it's looking like the recent data updates are certainly positive and may be very near or have already met the threshold for a Pharma to do some serious number crunching on valuing a license or take over offer. Will there be a a cheeky initial offer by anyone to test the waters at HQ for deal / TO appetite or will any self respecting suitor rather stump up a competitive offer to try and secure things without a bidding war? I'm hoping for a competitive bidding war, but maybe it's too optimistic :). Whilst I can see the route of licenses and deals per platform for maximising the potential here preferred by the BOD, I do wonder if it a TO is now more likely than ever as a Pharma could look at the risk of investment being spread over several platforms. Looking clearer than ever that at some point in the not too distant future there's going to be some serious action here...... well AIMO!

Nice recap, there is so much to look forward to and hopefully it just takes one good news drop…. I’m hoping for Genmab milestone news tbh… to really start a good push here. This deal already shows there is great potential in the glymab platform. If you do the maths… if successful this license alone is worth 60p in purely milestone cash received value. The fact the molecule was at the time one of five in the platform would propel the potential way past that value on any future license of those. If this one progresses successfully to the next milestone(s) we could be looking at a multi $Bn + value platform if taken out imo. Hoping Genmab are flying this along!!

I do think we are now longer at another period of silence from the board given the ‘update’ provided and would appreciate a sincere effort to keep SH up to date and in the loop as much as they can whilst the SP is taking a kicking with no real PR from the BOD to maintain it. Still in it to win it and final outcomes… BUT it is becoming rinse and repeat… the PR around the Genmab license should have been much much better as many have already said. Time to look after the SP and the science in tandem!

I’d possibly take £1 if it was only for Modi -1 license … I have a (hopefully realistic) £3-£5 value ear marked for an entire takeout… once either Modi-1 or SCIB1 show good results as it shows Scancell have the science right. If it goes the way of individual licenses then £1 value may be in the ball mark depending on stage licensed, unless there are competing pharmas. Any extraordinary results and you can double or triple the values IMO. Anyway, we will see when we see ; ).

This is why I feel I have a realistic valuation of the company of $3B for a full takeover if it were to happen in the next 12 months with maybe another one or two similar license delas in play, because of that repetitive validation potential with the platforms held here.

That goes out of the window if Modi presents the amazing humanised results it did in mice, then I'd say, 'who knows'. Sometimes wish I'd actively traded this to maximise profit and holding, but since I invested, I've done so on a **** or bust till the end ...or a very significant value if there is the TO scenario. And that's not to say i don't care amount my investment - it's more that I am happy to be in until there is that possible 'huge' outcome to reap the rewards.

Not saying the above will happen, but my thoughts on the potential with the license deal showing validation of the IP here, which if we get another similar would firm up the idea that you can simply multiply what molecules/anti-bodies are left by deal numbers already done.

It will be interesting to see how speedily this first license progresses. GLA

Nice to have one with a ‘Major’ and left wondering what it entails… time or stage of progress limited? Did any further details of the previous agreements become known? Also wondering where they are at now. Here’s hoping for early licences on the platform to generate some commercial thrust m.

We can only hope so....in terms of SP this passed year......three quick steps forward and 3 drawn out steps back... wish I had the trading initiative to try to accummulate more shares through buying and selling requlary, but here for the end game and it'll be **** or bust. It is a little depressing to look in here this last month though Ughh! Anyway GLA and hoping to see £1 SP at some point, and I'll be out out...previous targets £2/3 just seem too far away now for me.