Cobus Loots, CEO of Pan African Resources, on delivering sector-leading returns for shareholders. Watch the video here.
I must admit mikecoster1 that you describe a sensible way forward for TomCo. We, as shareholders, would get the best of both worlds - a boost to share price when the lease was sold then a longer term upside to look forward to. If the lease was bought (by Total/Red Leaf?) for say $5 to $8pb then that's approx £400 - £600million in the coffers (and SP of 20p to 30p equivalent?). They invest in a new project that they can develop to full completion and reap the full, longer term, rewards (didn't Chris Brown once say that he aimed to take TomCo to a £1 a share?).
Hi rorker, I posted some fag packet calculations last month. Here is a copy of that post fwiw:- Mention of PE ratio valuations got me thinking I'd have a go with TOM's valuation. I'm no expert so feel free to pull my figures apart. I've based it on 9800 bopd that the first capsule is supposed to produce. Assumed profit of $40/bbl (with oil prices over $100 and a TomCo stated breakeven oil price of $50/bbl then this is maybe quite conservative). So, (9800 x 360 days) x $40/1.60 = £88,200,000 per year / 1,896,000,000 shares = 4.6p earnings per share The typical PE ratio of the oil sector is 12, so SP = 12 x 4.6p = 55.2p per share. Of course, this is based on TOM getting to full production on one capsule and as we 'know' this is very unlikely as they will probably be bought out by then. ----------------- While I'm in calculation mode, Total invested an equivalent $5.38 /boe for Red Leaf's assets (119 million barrel's of slightly less quality oil than TomCo's lease). If we guess that JORC reserves will be around 70% of 126million bbls = 88 million barrels then at $5.38/boe, that's about 16p per share (88,000,000 x $5.38/1.6 divided by 1,896,000,000 shares). If we get bought out at something more like $10/bbl (in ground), that would be an SP of 29p. Anyways, all food for thought :) PS. Found this very good article from July about TOM's valuation: http://www.thefiringroom.com/oil-gas/tomco-energy-plc-big-gains-for-patient-investors/
Mention of PE ratio valuations got me thinking I'd have a go with TOM's valuation. I'm no expert so feel free to pull my figures apart. I've based it on 9800 bopd that the first capsule is supposed to produce. Assumed profit of $40/bbl (with oil prices over $100 and a TomCo stated breakeven oil price of $50/bbl then this is maybe quite conservative). So, (9800 x 360 days) x $40/1.60 = £88,200,000 per year / 1,896,000,000 shares = 4.6p earnings per share The typical PE ratio of the oil sector is 12, so SP = 12 x 4.6p = 55.2p per share. Of course, this is based on TOM getting to full production on one capsule and as we 'know' this is very unlikely as they will probably be bought out by then. ----------------- While I'm in calculation mode, Total invested an equivalent $5.38 /boe for Red Leaf's assets (119 million barrel's of slightly less quality oil than TomCo's lease). If we guess that JORC reserves will be around 70% of 126million bbls = 88 million barrels then at $5.38/boe, that's about 16p per share (88,000,000 x $5.38/1.6 divided by 1,896,000,000 shares). If we get bought out at something more like $10/bbl (in ground), that would be an SP of 29p. Anyways, all food for thought :) PS. Found this very good article from July about TOM's valuation: http://www.thefiringroom.com/oil-gas/tomco-energy-plc-big-gains-for-patient-investors/
The June 11 2013 Red Leaf presentation states the following:- Page 4 - "Red Leaf’s first oil from Early Production System (EPS) using EcoShale™ planned for 2014" Page 7 - "First production from EPS planned for 2014" So, has the date changed (to 2015) since this 11th June presentation?
This is a question for stubbsy1. I'm new to this board but am a large holder of TOM. Just wondered stubbsy1, where do these 7% and 93% figures come from regarding JORC? Are these figures published somewhere or is this from your own research? Cheers