Member Info for kdix

Ran out of room!

However, jurisdictions such as Kazakhstan are considered pro-western, and the EU has recently signed a Strategic Cooperation Agreement with the Kazakh government, so this is now an EU priority. The required gas exploration and production skills are closely related to those familiar to our team from the petroleum industry. There seems to be excellent potential opportunities for Petrel in such assets, subject to securing necessary funding.

This is why I believe Petrel are on to a great opportunity.

Why would DH specifically mention these 3 elements in the interim statement?!! Unless they were pursuing an opportunity that reflects the very latest Geoscience thinking that all 3 can co-exist in the same play.

FROM A VERY RECENT GEOSCIENCE ARTICLE:

Exploring for hydrogen, helium and lithium: is it as easy as 1, 2, 3?

Authors: Jon G. Gluyas, Madeleine Humphreys, Rūta Karolyte, Anran Cheng, Barbara Sherwood Lollar and Chris Ballentine

Published: Sept 25th 2024

Abstract:

Hydrogen, helium and lithium, elements one two and three of the periodic table, are in demand to enable and enhance low-carbon energy technologies.

- Hydrogen (anthropogenic) is manufactured from water via methane reforming or from electrolysis. Both are costly and have environmental impacts.

- Helium is commonly found in low concentrations in association with petroleum gases.

- Lithium is mined by brine pumping or from igneous rocks, with consequential serious environmental impacts.

If it were possible to economically find hydrogen in its [natural] molecular state, then surely such hydrogen would dominate the market. Similarly, helium generated without associated greenhouse gases would also be a market stimulant for a helium industry. What if hydrogen and helium could be co-produced from a single composite discovery? And what if the water leg [water typically underlying oil/gas accumulations] to such hydrogen and helium deposits were rich in lithium? It, too, would be produced with costs for all elements shared.

Helium is a natural product of crystalline [basement] rocks including granite and its generation can liberate hydrogen from interstitial water [water in pore spaces between rock particles]. These same rocks can be rich sources of lithium and may also deliver geothermal resources. The energy transition may therefore shift what we consider to be important for energy geoscience. The basement may become as important as the basin.

FROM PETREL'S INTERIM STATEMENT:

Accordingly, our team has invested time and effort, over recent months, in researching qualifying projects that fit within the EU's criteria.

Currently, the most advanced opportunities identified  comprise adequate sources of HELIUM, which is increasingly critical to high-tech and aerospace industries. Though our petroleum contacts, we are aware of bypassed discoveries, in the Former Soviet Union (FSU) and elsewhere, that show large volume, high confidence reserves ideally suited to fulfil EU needs.  Historically, most major HELIUM (and indeed NATURAL HYDROGEN) discoveries have been made - largely by accident - via oil & gas exploration. For reasons of prevailing economics and demand at the time, most of these discoveries have yet to be developed.

In light of current sanctions, it is impractical to develop such HELIUM (or Cobalt or LITHIUM) deposits in Russia or Iran.  However, jurisdictions such as Kazakhst

Sure :). It was a hosted image so I'll need to post a text equivalent here.

Agree with you hamiltonbro.

People beginning to catch on to the enormous opportunities.

From the carefully placed references/clues in Petrel's interim statement to helium, hydrogen and lithium, my research shows these elements can all co-exist and be profitably extracted as part of the same play, making a project less risky and more attractive to funding.

It seems clear (to me anyway!) that DH's strategy is to pursue EU funding in order to explore for critically needed helium predominantly (and co-existing associated hydrogen/lithium) in known, but bypassed discoveries, in Kazakhstan and utilising the many years of relevant E&P experience built up by both Petrel and Clontarf teams (and using a reliable local partner).

I've heard there's a hope of some news by the end of this year.

Also, EU Hydrogen Bank auction starts Dec 3rd ($1.34 billion funding available to EU companies).

Here's the main points/thoughts I took from the recent RNS:

- Helium (mentioned 3 times)

- EU's Critical Resource Minerals Act passed this year

- 34 CRM's on EU list (incl Helium)

- 17 of 34 considered strategic (incl Lithium & Cobalt)

- FSU or Kazakhstan mentioned 4 times

- Plenty EU funding is available (KD: $1.34 billion)

- Lack of EU companies with experience in exploration & development in developing countries

- Petrel is an EU company

- Petrel has the skills, contacts and experience

- Petrel been working with EU on this since 2023

- Already identified previously bypassed Helium discoveries in FSU (i.e. Kazakstan) with large volume, high confidence reserves.

- Good confidence, following actual discussions, for getting finance, permits and offtakes

Shortly after the AGM, at which JT mentioned 'EU funding', 'helium', 'hydrogen' and 'Central Asia', I enquired if there was a realistic possibility that Petrel could obtain such funding in its pursuit of potential new opportunities outside of Iraq? Answer: "Yes".

I have also received more recent comms from the company confirming that "The EU has funding, and needs critical resource minerals" and that Petrel "have the contacts, skills and experience to deliver them".

The era of Iraq opportunities for Petrel may be over for now and we know how long everyone waited for that....however, even though it feels like we are 'starting from scratch' again with the above European/Kazakhstan potential opportunities, I hope the fact there is funding and a strong need will make things happen quicker!

Indeed beetroot.

There's no way that Petrel hasn't been planning for the funding requirements of a future licencing round.

Indeed they've been preparing for this for years.

Back in the Sept 2021 interims, there was an innocuous highlighted point stating:

"Shareholder base broadened, to prepare for expansion".

I asked DH what this meant. His reply:

" We have been meeting and presenting to institutional and semi-state shareholders willing to back longer-term, capital intensive projects in the Middle East and elsewhere".

(A semi-state company in the Republic of Ireland is effectively a state owned entity)

Later, in June 2023, this 'Future'Â looking statement was in the AR:

"Petrel is confident that necessary funding will be available for sound Iraqi and Ghanaian projects".

I asked DH: "

Qn: Is Itochu still a potential sugar daddy in respect of future funding?

DH reply: "Yes".

(This was the third time in 3 years he's confirmed Itochu are still available)

Hi Pauly,

Yes, Petrel have definitely submitted a bid for the Merjan licence. This was confirmed at last years AGM. DH also confirmed that ours was the only bid back then.

It was the IOM that ASKED Petrel to make the submissions for Merjan AND previous Mezazoic/Paleozoic studies (aka geographical euphemism for Block 6). We dont have any confirmation for a definite bid on Block 6 (now called 'Anz' in the LR6 round) but I do know that Itochu are available as a funder, were given first dibs on it if offerred and their worldwide head of gas used to be an intern at Petrel in Dublin. Draw your own conclusions and likelihoods from that :).

I think the phrase 'submission of bids' has confused a lot of people, including myself for a bit.

However, the Initial Tender Protocol document, published on the IOM's Petroleum Contracts and Licencing Directorate (PCLD), quite clearly states that:

4.2 BIDDING PROCESS

"The bid envelopes will be opened immediately following the deadline for their submission".

This ties in with the 2018 fifth licencing round which had April 25th as the deadline for submission of bids. The winners were then announced publically the following day on April 26th.

Morning Pauly,

The last official statement from the Iraq PCLD website stated there would be a 15 day delay and that "the submission of bids is now expected to commence May 11 2024".

However, that notice was replaced shortly after by another one saying the Final Tender Protocol (viewable only to participants) had been updated with the latest timetable. The FTP is a document giving the final bidding and contract details and is not viewable by us mere mortals.

In essence, we do not know the definite date other than it is "expected to commence 11th May", which is 2 weeks this Saturday.

The date in question is the day that they intend to hold a 'ceremony', a 'bid auction' , commence the 'submission of bids'. All these terms refer to the same thing and mean the date that bid envelopes will be opened and immediately publicly announced.

So we keep monitoring Iraq news articles for any confirmation of May 11th or otherwise.

Thanks Pauly :).

Are you on advfn PET board? I've posted quite a few informative posts (I think ;)) with colourful screenshots. Shame that images cant be posted here otherwise I'd post more often.

Results of both 5th+ and 6th licensing rounds were to be selected this Saturday (27th) but IOM have extended a further 15 days to May 11th.

Not long (again!) to wait.

If PET win the Merjan/Kifl/West Kifl licence then £100m mcap nailed on.

Agreed, they are an explorer but they have always had a long held desire, in connection with Merjan, to become a producer, especially if PSA's are on the table.

The licence they have applied for with Merjan is to DEVELOP it. It is an already discovered field, so no exploration required. :)

Then again PET could see some of this...

"...Al-Halbousi noted that more contracts would be signed in the near future in western Iraq...".

I can't find the post you refer to on advfn. Who was the poster?

Have you got a link to the Haaretz.com article?

I can't find any mention of Tamraz takeover anywhere on the site.

Couldn't agree with you more there Plugin.

Earlier you asked about pay back period for the bond funding. The NSAI reserves report shows the expected revenues per year over a 14 year mine life. After capital costs, operating expenditure, etc it gives net revenues of around $130 million per year ( $10.8m per month). The report looks like it's based on a plant capable of processing 10,000 tonnes oil sands per day (i.e. a 5,000 bopd output) and states capital costs of around $120m to build. Assuming the bond funding would need to include enough cash for Tomco to keep going until revenue starts, let's say $20m for 2 years (total guess), then that's a bond amount of $140m. With monthly net income of $10.8m that suggests a payback period of around 13 months.

That, of course, is based on a 100% holding of the TSHII land and plant.

Above are my own thoughts and figures so please don't assume as gospel! :)

Maybe we'll get an updated reserves report from NSAI.

Column 1 Column 2 Column 3 Column 4

111111 222222 333333 44444444

Which funding though do we think is being referred to?

Funding just for HSO/Valkor do do their drilling?

Funding for HSO AND AC OIL to do their combined (unitised) drilling?

The 'big funding' for a new Greenfield JV to drill the wells AND build a remediation plant?

Hopefully clarification will be forthcoming before the late August AGM, otherwise JP will be crucified!