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Indeed beetroot.
There's no way that Petrel hasn't been planning for the funding requirements of a future licencing round.
Indeed they've been preparing for this for years.
Back in the Sept 2021 interims, there was an innocuous highlighted point stating:
"Shareholder base broadened, to prepare for expansion".
I asked DH what this meant. His reply:
" We have been meeting and presenting to institutional and semi-state shareholders willing to back longer-term, capital intensive projects in the Middle East and elsewhere".
(A semi-state company in the Republic of Ireland is effectively a state owned entity)
Later, in June 2023, this 'Future'Â looking statement was in the AR:
"Petrel is confident that necessary funding will be available for sound Iraqi and Ghanaian projects".
I asked DH: "
Qn: Is Itochu still a potential sugar daddy in respect of future funding?
DH reply: "Yes".
(This was the third time in 3 years he's confirmed Itochu are still available)
Hi Pauly,
Yes, Petrel have definitely submitted a bid for the Merjan licence. This was confirmed at last years AGM. DH also confirmed that ours was the only bid back then.
It was the IOM that ASKED Petrel to make the submissions for Merjan AND previous Mezazoic/Paleozoic studies (aka geographical euphemism for Block 6). We dont have any confirmation for a definite bid on Block 6 (now called 'Anz' in the LR6 round) but I do know that Itochu are available as a funder, were given first dibs on it if offerred and their worldwide head of gas used to be an intern at Petrel in Dublin. Draw your own conclusions and likelihoods from that :).
I think the phrase 'submission of bids' has confused a lot of people, including myself for a bit.
However, the Initial Tender Protocol document, published on the IOM's Petroleum Contracts and Licencing Directorate (PCLD), quite clearly states that:
4.2 BIDDING PROCESS
"The bid envelopes will be opened immediately following the deadline for their submission".
This ties in with the 2018 fifth licencing round which had April 25th as the deadline for submission of bids. The winners were then announced publically the following day on April 26th.
Morning Pauly,
The last official statement from the Iraq PCLD website stated there would be a 15 day delay and that "the submission of bids is now expected to commence May 11 2024".
However, that notice was replaced shortly after by another one saying the Final Tender Protocol (viewable only to participants) had been updated with the latest timetable. The FTP is a document giving the final bidding and contract details and is not viewable by us mere mortals.
In essence, we do not know the definite date other than it is "expected to commence 11th May", which is 2 weeks this Saturday.
The date in question is the day that they intend to hold a 'ceremony', a 'bid auction' , commence the 'submission of bids'. All these terms refer to the same thing and mean the date that bid envelopes will be opened and immediately publicly announced.
So we keep monitoring Iraq news articles for any confirmation of May 11th or otherwise.
Agreed, they are an explorer but they have always had a long held desire, in connection with Merjan, to become a producer, especially if PSA's are on the table.
The licence they have applied for with Merjan is to DEVELOP it. It is an already discovered field, so no exploration required. :)
Couldn't agree with you more there Plugin.
Earlier you asked about pay back period for the bond funding. The NSAI reserves report shows the expected revenues per year over a 14 year mine life. After capital costs, operating expenditure, etc it gives net revenues of around $130 million per year ( $10.8m per month). The report looks like it's based on a plant capable of processing 10,000 tonnes oil sands per day (i.e. a 5,000 bopd output) and states capital costs of around $120m to build. Assuming the bond funding would need to include enough cash for Tomco to keep going until revenue starts, let's say $20m for 2 years (total guess), then that's a bond amount of $140m. With monthly net income of $10.8m that suggests a payback period of around 13 months.
That, of course, is based on a 100% holding of the TSHII land and plant.
Above are my own thoughts and figures so please don't assume as gospel! :)
Column 1 Column 2 Column 3 Column 4
111111 222222 333333 44444444
Which funding though do we think is being referred to?
Funding just for HSO/Valkor do do their drilling?
Funding for HSO AND AC OIL to do their combined (unitised) drilling?
The 'big funding' for a new Greenfield JV to drill the wells AND build a remediation plant?
Hopefully clarification will be forthcoming before the late August AGM, otherwise JP will be crucified!
beardozer, various price calculations have been made over on advfn. One of the main posters (damac) estimated that on say a 15% free carry, the mcap could be of between £250-300m once all income streams are fully developed. That's potentially £50m to £60m to Tomco per year over 20 years. That supports a price range of 9p to 11p, so potentially a 30x to 40x bagger from here.
Hope that helps.
I thought damac had answered that already - see his advfn post below (don't want to paste it as I've not asked his permission):
damac - 30 Nov 2022 - 12:05:51 - 28863 of 28922
The gist of it though is that since Tomco currently owns 100% of Greenfield then the TSH2 land owner would hopefully be open to extending the "exclusive option, at its sole discretion, to acquire the remaining 90%". If so, then that effectively means Tomco would still hold the ace card and so would HAVE to be included otherwise the various parties wouldn't even be able to secure the assets in order to progress at all.