Member Info for JustHereForHemo

I say let them sell, its the short sighed PIs who did no research into Hemogenyx and bought and sold on emotions and never had a clue what the true worth of the share was that allowed the price to crash to this low level it is now.
I am more than happy for PIs to sell now, the market in general is waking up to the potential here and having seen the damage that PIs can do to a SP recently, I am more accepting of the II's coming in and swallowing up the available shares.

6p will probably have lots of resistance from all those PIs wanting their 5-10% profits from the low 5's.
Happy to have that resistance if it means PIs with that mentality sell and are gone for good :-)

The figures for licencing deal alone are mind blowing, that's just licencing, forget takeover... I need a drink.

Happy to see new positive blood :-) happy to say I'm in the 7 figure club too and here for the long haul. For me the potential of a take over means I am unlikely to sell any more than a handful and just wait for them to be force ably taken from me for rediclous sums of money ??

I really would not worry, there is the same small movements throughout the day every day.
Feels like we have turned a corner and the idiots who had nothing to say except insults and nonsense have moved on.
There are just too many investors, professionals and private who really have started looking in detail at Hemo and like what they see.
Scare tactics like a shake of the price has much less impact now as the market becomes immune.
The weak uninformed PIs have moved away and the SP is slowly but surely drifting in the right direction.
Good time to take a break and wait for news in the coming weeks

you can SELL at 5.75
you can BUY at 5.7

Free Float is not the same as available traded free float share.
My shares are technically part of teh free float but no way I would sell any at this level, maybe 10-15% at 20-25p so the float depends on the number of investors willing to sell..

TBH 2.50 -> 6 is fantastic :-) I wouldn't feel bad over that.
As much as I believe in Hemo and totally think its going to be massive I will never say a negative word against anyone taking a slice of their profits once it starts to rise. Once its worth 2-3 times your initial investment taking out some so your de-risking or even on a free ride is not a bad idea. Everyone sleeps easier when they are not risking their initial investment pot.

@Scart, totally agree, 9bil market will take years to realise and Hemo could never achieve that without help which means giving alot away. Given Eli stated 1-5bil I would expect us to fall within that band so I think your 1-2b is not unrealistic, could be more could be less depending on the results in the next few weeks and months

@Sam, thats the point, I thought a year or 2, everyone thought a year or 2.
But then start of the year we hear Eli on a shopping trip for this year and we tick most of the boxes.
Then we find out about a placing that took many of us by surprise and they have explicitly said thats for the mice, Covid-19 CAR-T but no mention of CDX acceleration.
The 2 are converging.
I wont be surprised if takeover happens in 1-2 years
I wont be surprised if takeover happens in 2-3 months.

@Scart, I agree with your timelines, this quarter is too short for Hemo, very unlikely.
However the 3 month extension to global co for CDX
Placing fund raise for everything else
These are 2 distinct and separate development timelines but the placing basically allowed them to accelerate everything else to correlate with the CDX Global Co timeline.
So assuming Global Co agreement is end of July the April-June window is not going to happen, but assuming all goes well and sufficient progress is made in July/August then July-September falls very nicely into the window when Hemogenyx will be wrapping up alot of work and moving to human trial status when they will be needing assistance anyway.
Opportunities like this may not come along that often, how often does a global pharma publicly announce they want to buy 4 1-5bil small pharma in a few areas of research one being cancer in early stage development?
The BoD would be mad if this is not on their radar, there is exactly ZERO chance that they have not considered getting Hemo to a marketable state with a good portfolio of products to capitalise on market value before considering a take over. I am not saying they will, but they MUST have had that talk...

@Quickdraw re not selling before they have a commercial product, Dr Vlad wants to cure cancer, Hemogenyx are not a commercial company nor are they a treatment company, they still are R&D, they are not in any way set up to market or capitalise on any potential ground breaking treatments at this point. Any treatments approved will be going though licencing or acquired by a big pharma.
The problem is to get that far you need human trials which needs ALOT of resources, money, facilities, I am not sure how many patients will be required for the CDX or Hemo-CAR-T trials but I think I read somewhere that just one phase of the trials needs 500 participants? Given these patients will be spread across many hospitals if not countries it will have to be a partner. But Hemo can bring everything to pre-clinical state before they sell which is a very nice place to be.
The recent placing allowed them to accelerate the Hemo-CAR-T trials almost inline with the end of the extended agreement with Global Co and CDX. All coming to a very similar state at around the same time.
Regarding valuation, well look back at 2018 https://www.lse.co.uk/media/HEMO/ and you will see Vlad put a market valuation as $9bil potential, and thats BEFORE they realised just how good the mice were and realised they are a massive revenue stream on their own. And then take into the equation any potential Covid products...
The Bone Marrow Transplant work basically brings BMT from being a risky last line of defence treatment for a small number of AML sufferers to potentially a first line treatment and cure. Its a massive deal, if hemo were set up to complete all the human trials and get all the patents, licences, orphan drug status etc then they would be worth many many billions at the end. The potential really is that huge.

HOWEVER Hemogenyx are not big enough or able on their own to realise this potential. They need help to get through all those stages. No Global pharma is going to help without either buying Hemo and completing the work in house with the Hemo team working under their umbrella or taking out a very attractive contract in exchange for the risk they accept.

The logic goes that Eli Lilley stated a few months ago they want to make one big acquisition a quarter this presumably financial year so April 2020 -> 2021 (thats my guess it may be calendar year or the company's financial year..) And they were talking about small pharma with a value of 1-5bil
Now as it stands Hemogenyx have the mice, and there is a contract with Orgenesis which can be translated to a value based on the 12% revenue stream and potential size of orders given the DoD interest, so that can be predicted.
The recent placing allows Hemogenyx to bring HEMO-CAR-T to human trials which would mean revaluation for Hemo. It also allows them to work on a potential vulnerability Covid-19 test and a number of other projects which may or may not bear fruit in the short term. Hemo dont have capacity to manufacture or capitalise on this potential product, but any acquiring company WOULD be able to use that IP to quickly move to production. These areas of work were outside the scope of the CDX Global Co agreement so any advances made BEFORE any potential offer to buy out substantially improves the offer.
The CDX work again, its basically owned by Hemo, although its being done in collaboration with Global Co, they only have rights to an attractive licencing deal at the end, Hemo still own it and have to agree a price if Global Co want exclusivity over it. Given the area is Leukaemia and Eli have expressed a desire to acquire early stage oncology small pharma companies it fits right into that area.
It would be entirely reasonable for someone like Eli or AZ or many other global pharmas to enter into a working arrangement where by they help a promising start up work on a new treatment with the understanding that if it is successful that global pharma get first refusal for a market beating price given their early investment and the fact they enabled the research.
Should that research bear fruit and the global Co suddenly be the beneficiary of a large windfall of surplus cash in their war chest to make acquisitions, well its only reasonable that the first companies they look to are companies where they are doing work already.
Now considering that Hemo is not valued at very much more than it was 2 years ago when it didnt have treatments advancing human trials. Didnt have the new advanced mice. Didnt have a 12% revenue stream from Orgenesis BioDefence Platform. Etc Etc its fair to say that the company is massively undervalued. I cannot imagine the placees when doing their Due Diligence thought that 7p was anything but a bargain for Hemogenyx which means they valued Hemo at multiples of £30m AT THAT POINT, I dont know what value they would expect before being willing to invest 2.5m but I can only imagine they valued the shares at 200%+ what they paid for in the very short term.
Anyway, it may happen, it may not happen. Global Co could be Eli or Orgenesis or Bower or one of a dozen others...

The sp was just getting rediclous given all the recent RNS's. Think when you read the likes of Zak or listen to the Vox podcast you get the feeling that people really have started to read into hemo and finally getting serious. Im feeling very optimistic, the exposure and new analysis should easily counter any future negatively on this board.

Sorry i missed most of the excitement today, i was on a call for most of it and was sharing my screen the entire time so never got time to come on. Saw rise at lunchtime and thought typical, i should work more often!!!

For the past weeks investors have been loading. PIs have been selling all their small holding and getting scared out of the market.
But yet still we see big buys, and there are more shakes and we see the small random holdings getting sold.
And again there are more big buys....
There reaches a point where those who can be scared into selling run out of shares. I am not saying we have reached that point but if we have...

This drug is not going to affect hemo in any negative way. It may have the opposite effect, it may encourage people to be more reckless and cause more infections where as the cure rate is only 1/3 - 1/5 so IF hemo do release an antibody solution it will still be needed. And on the flip side if it prevents further lock down and allows some more normality to return the CDX trials can begin and work with Global Co can accelerate

Groover its good news because it improves survivability a little which will mean less pressure to lockdown again... Hopefully. If the death rate is tolerable we will well tolerate it and stick with testing and tracing.
But really its only a stop gap to a cure.

15-Jun-20 08:19:17 6.20 400,931 Buy* 24.86k O

"went off with your tail between your legs" like when I posted this exact post:
"Apologies for earlier statement, I have completely become involved with Hemo over the Leukaemia work, the Covid stuff is more of a distraction to me but I will accept there is a significant potential for upside from Covid 19 developments.
Regardless I am not here for Covid, if it delivers there then happy days, but the real value is the long term advances in BMT"

When I make a mistake or forget something I OWN IT.

I challenged you to provide ONE link or justification for your back to 2.2p wish and you have come back with nothing but personal attacks. You have failed to demonstrate any ability to have an intelligent debate or conversation. When you are challenged with fact you attack personalities. You remind me of Donald Trump.
As I have taken considerable time to answer you and you have failed or refused to engage I will not be engaging with you further.