The latest Investing Matters Podcast episode featuring Jeremy Skillington, CEO of Poolbeg Pharma has just been released. Listen here.
I do not for one second believe that any CEO ever "give shorters a chance", if that ever were the case then any shorter who was "let out" would bookmark that company as a favourite for all future shorting!
A CEO COULD directly go after the shorts, by releasing news, director buys, share buy back, PR rampage etc, attract enough buying and shorters get closed out. Some times there has been so much damage to a companies valuation that the CEO has no other choice but to confront the shorting face on.
If Vlad is organising the funding as part of the offical Prevail launch of clinical trials as seems likely then its not a case that Vlad is giving shorters a chance, it simply takes a bit of time. A placing can and has been done in the space of a few hours, if he wanted to do one on the day the Clinical Hold was lifted? He easily could have, the interest generated would have made it significantly oversubscribed. The fact we are now almost 2 weeks since hold was lifted just makes it more the likely that the funding will be linked to trials which is exactly what we want, despite what our resident trolls would like as they continue to attack a company working hard to save lives.
MJ, I know you asked someone else, but think any one of us can answer that.
Hemogenyx are CLINICAL, they have a 100% owned CAR-T treatment for AML approved to start clinical trials.
They also have CBR(Can potentially target all viruses) and CDX. The current mCap of Hemogenyx is around £30mil.
There are no other CLINICAL pharma with CAR-T in this space even remotely close to this low an mCap.
Companies with CAR-T are 100-300m+ many are worth billions. Licencing deals are often in the 500m+ inc milestones range for CAR-T even at early stages.
So the valuation RIGHT now is wrong, 3p IS WRONG.
The valuation of a company is based on the share price times number of shares in issue, but right now? the number of shares that have been sold is much greater than the free float. The short position is huge right now, and short shares are borrowed, they have to be returned which means buying back, which pushes the SP up.
The shorters started after FDA approval, they carried on expecting some huge placing which still has not materialised. Starting trials, news of investment from Prevail or some other arrangement etc, all of these will force the shorts to close. Depending on how good the news is will decide what price the shorts close at, its a Mexican standoff at present, the shorters vs Vlad. But its Vlad who is calling the shots. That said 6p is VERY realistic, the short position is so large they cannot possibly close without pushing the SP up considerably.
I agree pingu, my 2 cents?
The usual crew will have been on the phone to peterhouse by now signing up for the expected placing. Peterhouse will have been onto Vlad offering a few mill at what? 2.5p? No interest? OK 3p? But things have changed... Vlad is not forced to go begging any more, Hemo are clinical and Prevail have deep pockets. Go short, hurt the SP then dangle a consolidation prize of a few mill significantly discounted from when you started shorting and expect him to say thank you while you Roger him with no lube. But I'm gonna bet this time Vlad said no 😉
Tick tock.....
Oops 😬 did I hit too close to home?
Simples, IF your able to close and buy back in the 3-3.5p range YOU win, feel good about attacking a company aiming to cure cancer.
If you're not able to close before the Prevail RNS lands? We win.
Simples.
Don't be in such a bad mood, and you never asked me that? The answer is fairly obvious though so if you need me to answer there is something wrong.... shorts opened after FDA approval, sp fell hard, no further explanation or justification needed for that, Good RNS, short, simple. But then 2 further RNSs attracted more buying, stopped the fall and put more pressure on shorters and traders. If these genius shorters knew about some so far unmateralised massive discount placing then they would also know about those 2 RNSs... they did not.
The fact is it DOES NOT MATTER if Vlad did a placing or not to the shorters, the fear of some massive diluting placing is all they need, scare people into selling and you win.
But here's the catch... if shorters successfully push the sp down bur people DONT sell and volume dries up like we have seen? Its incredibly difficult to close out shorts or buy back in. If the shorters pushed the SP down here with 20mil shares then buying 20m pushes it right the way back up again, same way I couldn't sell my shares now in one day without hurting the sp.
Maybe if the shorters had not gotten greedy and pushed the sp down so far Vlad might have done a placing at 6p as previously predicted, but now? Vlad has options, it IS a stand off between Vlad and the shorts. But volume is too low for shorts to close and Vlad is in the driving seat so looking forward to what happens next! If shorts had managed to close down here near 3p they would have won, but with 3m total volume??? Nope ain't happening and chances of a prevail update any day grows, shorts are trapped and I'm here to enjoy every minute of it.
Tick tock!!!
Please stop HT.... I'm starting to like you and it makes me uncomfortable......
The share register is mostly filled with trustee account holders, by and large not much use.
The 2 500k's are not reported as amendments, they are unlikely to be rollovers and because the trade price is exactly the same its not going to be a bed and isa. Balancing trades for spreads and leverage TEND to be after market closes and normally not even numbers like that. Someone has bought 2 blocks of 500k worked by a broker, nothing more complicated than that and it was printed an hour later. MrI you ask where are the buyers? Well... err... 1m is not a small buy...
Aside from that, look at the SP, ok 3p is PANTS! however it is still higher than it was a few weeks ago AND we have 20m short positions give or take, if you add those shares have to be bought back suddenly your looking at a much higher REAL price right now than is displayed on LSE. And if anyone really has to ask who is buying today.... Err... yea. Come on its not rocket science.
Be careful near the edge.....
Dig away, whether or not CBR works when they actually test in humans, if it ever gets that far, the fact is Vlad made it clear that CBR has the potential to treat ALL currently known viruses and potentially future Disease X viruses, the multiple targets described in the patent application were written explicitly with this in mind. He also stated SOME cancers ans some bacterial infections.
Will CBR ever make it to market for all viruses? Ofcourse not, its not needed, but has it that potential? Yes.
But this is a pointless argument, we both know the important candidate right now is HEMO-CAR-T. We can argue about how good CBR is after.
As for untruths, you have pretty much stated the company have no option but a massive discount placing, completely disregarding the more likely scenario that prevail will be involved in funding. You stated something like the current mCap is correct because this is the SP, this is false, the SP is transient and can change on tiny volumes, when 20 mil short shares artificially suppress the SP, those 20m need bought back, so it's obvious the value is wrong and will correct.
Anyway, you want to let it drop? Fine, you stop stating that YOUR opinion is factual and only likely option and I'll agree that its technically possible for Vlad to do a large discount placing even though I believe its incredibly unlikely.
It literally says in the rns something like potentially all known viruses both existing and future disease X? Take it up with Vlad not me! He also said SOME cancers. Some bacterial infections was mentioned in the past, not heard much about that but we now have degenerative brain conditions to add to the mix. And yes I know CBR might never treat all of even any of these.
Tell us again stu how the FDA are going to ask more questions and extend the Clinical Hold. Tell us again, how many times have you sold up and wished us luck as you leave never to return?
Who said funding is proving difficult? Lol nobody has said that! Most of us fully expect funding for CAR-T to come with announcements to start trials with prevail.
Only one trying to spread fud about issue raising funds is yourself.
But carry on, feels good to make money here doesn't it? Pushing down the SP half a point just hits the spot.... trying to cure cancer? Pah! As long as stu makes his silver!
Nothing but an attempt to whitewash and deflect from the simple fact, you and others heavily trade/short hemo, spread fud and attempt to gain
As much profit as possible, and if that hurts the companies mCap, its ability to raise funds over the past few years, and forces Vlad to go slow and make difficult decisions delaying getting treatments to clinic?
That's a price you think is more than worth it.
You trade, and attack a company trying to cure cancer. Just own it.
Ofcourse it's disgusting to short a company working to cure cancer, a company like Tesla or BAT, immoral companies or ones with vastly inflated valuations? Shirt away. That's what shorting is for, but shorting any small company just because they may need funding making it harder to raise funds? That's not what the facility was created for and its wrong.
And please don't be so stupid pumpkin, you know full well stu was asking rhetorically, it's right there in an rns all known viruses
6p was not plucked out of thin air, it was a number Prevail had and used and agreed by Hemogenyx, as I stated before many times I believe the next investment from prevail and probably other investors will be 6p also. And yes I believe it PROBABLY would have happened already had the SP not dropped back so fast, at 3p Prevail will probably be fine to go ahead but private investors will wait. Vlad knows what he needs and how much overhead is available so likelihood is he waits for more favourable conditions or looks elsewhere for funding EG JV etc. But bottom line? He PROBABLY would already have much of the money he needs now had traders and shorters not pushed the SP down so hard and so fast to this level. Hemogenyx are a R&D company and its clear from the last few RNS's that they are going to save lives and change lives. How many of us know people with Alzheimer's or cancer? I know people with both.
There is a limit to how much equity a company can issue, Share Price MATTERS. Those who strive to push the SP down as low as humanly possible to get away a trade or bank a few quid for themselves ARE doing lasting harm to the company, delaying research, forcing Vlad to delay IND enabling studies and delaying trials in the long run. And while we are waiting people will continue to get sick and die. Its not a game, Hemo are working to save real humans, real people with families and kids. But its ok, as long as Stu and his gang get their entry point its all good.
So yes Dog, Shorters and some traders especially in companies like this ARE the lowest of the low, screw curing cancer as long as they make a quick buck.
Pumpkin is away... Was wondering why she did not reply something like "Why would he be nervous, he won, SP is down at 3p!" WELL Pumpkin, I know you would have asked but, just had a quick look at the volumes, 5.7m today, 2.5m yesterday, EVEN IF Stu and whoever is short would be happy to buy/close at 3p? HOW do you close 20mil worth of shorts at 3p when the short position is like 5 times the average daily volume??? Shorts and traders need volume too, they cant just buy/close all at once or they cause a run on stock and MMs move it up, bit of a pickle they have gotten themselves into...
Well stu, congratulations, first step to dealing with a problem is acknowledging you have one :-)
"I’m nervous! …" - Well done for admitting it!!!
Simple - If your short Close, if your not short? Honestly dont care, prefer you to stay out and watch from the sidelines TBH :P
As for your question "will it be dilutive?" PROBABLY?? The Prevail 6p placing was dilutive, but at 6p you dont see me complaining lol!
Bottom line is Hemo are in a very strong position today and having gotten FDA approval they are not forced to accept funding any future terms will likely be much better than in the past. My opinion?
Prevail will invest again at the same time as they launch the trials and there will be some sort of PIPE investment to cover progress in CBR and it wont be at a discount to todays prices. Again, purely my opinion? You and many others sold and/or shorted on FDA approval expecting SP to tank, just when it was down a bit, Vlad launched ANOTHER bumper RNS making the traders/shorters go even deeper having already committed, then ANOTHER bumper RNS and again traders/shorters throwing everything they had at it but SP never moved.
While you might be nervous I have more of a pent in excitement, I know the next steps will include launch of trials and some answer on funding and I look forward to that. I look at the shorts which are substantial on IG and IB and again that fills me with excitement, I know they opened them ages ago and if they did not know about the CBR updates they sure as hell dont have any other inside information so for me? They are just deferred buys, 20m shorts having to close, when that happens you can guarantee the SP moves up :-)
IMO this week or next week we get RNS on launch of trials and probably some sort of funding update. If your really that confident its going to be some huge dilutive placing then you "keep 'er lit boy!" I disagree :-)
Significant uptick in troll'ish behaviour in the last day or so, occasionally it is because they are right and there is a placing or something, HOWEVER, worth noting that the selling/shorting began immediately when Hemo had their CH lifted by the FDA, that is now over a week ago and if Vlad was so desperate to do a placing a day or max 2 after the news. Over a WEEK has passed and? More and more likely that any funding will be tied to launch of trials, which means Prevail which means a premium again.
So why the uptick in trolls? Nobody has posted more in the last 24 hrs than Stu, so somebody is nervous, I am not going to say for sure he is short, but I will say 100% he trades Hemo and likes to buy when its low and I would literally bet my entire life savings that the ONLY reason he is here is he wants to close shorts lower or buy shares lower. There is literally ZERO other reason:
If he was not holding, did not want to buy he would not waste his valuable time.
If he was holding he would not be trolling, he would stay away or use a positive profile to post.
If he was taking part in a placing then he would already have a price and would want the SP to go up.
Literally there is ZERO reason why a seasoned trader like Stu would waste his time here unless the end result was him purchasing shares, directly or via closing leveraged positions.
The only reason anyone has left at this point to be nervous is Funding. Impossible to argue they wont go clinical, because.. THEY ARE clinical. They have not started trials yet so they cannot fail trials until they start and to start there needs to be some sort of confirmation that Prevail are happy to proceed which means they are happy with the funding situation. CBR cant fail YET because they have proven it works in VITRO with live viruses and In VIVO to produce immune cells. They have not yet done the live challenge trials for IND enabling studies so they cannot fail yet either, until they actually start. So that leaves funding..... The one single arrow in the trolls quiver. Lets look at the evidence.
28 November 2023 £500k at 2.375p, except for day before that was a whopping 0.2p discount to the prior 7 days.... But IMMEDIATELY followed a really good update on CBR.
18 September 2023 £670k at 6p, Prevail SIGNIFICANT premium paid.
26 January 2023 £4m at 2.5p - After 2 years of the SP being stuck below 2p, mostly below 1.5p and spiking again on news.
So forgive me if the idea of Vlad raising funds does not fill me with the fear of god as Stu would love us to experience. Bottom line is over the past few years EXCLUDING THAT F'ING disaster of MINT..... Vlad has raised enough cash at opportune moments when SP was up to minimise dilution and fund Hemogenyx in an uncertain environment when Hemogenyx was PRE-CLINICAL and NOBODY could borrow money. Today?
HEMOGENYX ARE CLINICAL - This opens up many more doors for funding, he could literally ask for a grant from many charities and get handouts if he wanted, not sure the level is worth the effort for him but still... Prevail already invested once when they normally dont touch pre-clinical, their very website says they fund early phase trials! This is not rocket science! Then you have Prevail trying to attract pharma investors at conferences, Americans with deep pockets who are more likely to make a PIPE investment with lockout periods and pay a premium. Mint turned out to be a disaster, but that was not the intention, every other fund raise has been reasonable, justified and no more than necessary. So this pathetic argument that suddenly, now, when Hemo have actually succeeded, when they are Clinical and can actually attract better terms? To suggest that NOW for some reason Vlad is going to behave like VAST, HZM, PREM etc and just do stupid huge discount placings? Give the man a bit of credit, he was able to develop a cure for cancer and all known viruses I think he is smart enough to think to lift the phone to Prevail if he needs more cash.