RE: Contracts confusion27 Dec 2020 13:28
Thanks a lot, SteveV, Hartlebury.
Indeed it would make sense the 63.3M£ contract is the same as the 288.000 test/week contract. That would bring the price per test for that contract at roughly 9.15£. This could make sense, couldn't it? The second contract is more puzzling.
With far too many unknowns, it is utterly impossible to make an even remotely decent sales numbers prediction for Ncyt's for 2020 and beyond. I think the numbers could range between 190M and 500M£ for 2020. My personal Ncyt revenue estimate for this year stands at 190M£. This may seem low, but it still represents (if my calculations are correct) a more than decent 20% market share of all U.K. PCR testing so far. Of course that is just counting the U.K. market and only PCR testing. So the actual revenue numbers for 2020 may be far higher. DB said the numbers would be substantially higher than 150M£. 190M£ is substantially higher, but so is SP Angels' 287.8M£. What the actual number will be is anyone's guess. I personally would not be disappointed with 190M£. I believe we should be careful not to put our expectations too high. It is far better to aim low and then be pleasantly surprised. At a revenue of 190M£ the current stock price is still dirt cheap (P/S 3.4, P/E 5).