Member Info for JTS13

Just a quick follow-up from a few posts this morning:

@GIT: Has been a learning curve for us all. Perhaps we need to improve discipline at top-slicing. Have done a couple of times, which is how reduced average by almost 50% of what originally bought in for. But more lessons from Troajans book perhaps?

@Troajan: Indeed, timing is important. Equally, I think that personal cashflows trump timing because this dictates sales time, whereas timing dictates buying. Both obviously important, but most of us get caught out on the former over the latter... There's obv the old adage of "dont invest what you cant afford". But liquidity goes much deeper than being able to "afford". e.g. I didn't budge when we were down in mid-20's cause wasn't aiming on selling any time soon. But as external deadlines loom, pressure builds.

@Mogwhy, trying to be objective rather than disrespectful, but that was a pretty flippant reply. If you don't care that resource estimates have been reduced by 75% in 12 months, but then argue that throwing away 100k a pop at mining (see rns for raising on SM for this purpose a few years back for figure reference) during a time when we need to be stringent with finances is ok, then I do have to say that such an attitude is quite worrying. It's actually such behaviour from MM that's resulted in a lot of the discontent towards wres by several on the board.
Perhaps you didn't mean it as such, there shouldn't be anything wrong with someone else (in this case me) suggesting to be careful with such comments

Morning Mogwhy, but just to be the downcast on this one. A few updates for the pending newsflow list:

1) Gold JORC target revised down to 250k from 400k in latest investor prez
2) Regua FID. Should we still expect this prior to the Regua resource update and LP ramp-up?
3) LP quarterly update likely to be delivered post-quarter, therefore technically to be early Q4. This would in turn impact statement on cashflow positive n a few other things u got there (unless of course there was a separate RNS prior to the quarterly update)

Personally, I hope SM trail mining does NOT start in Q4. Firm believer that this should be financed from positive cashflows. I know it's stated cashflow positive early on, but I question this as we've got to remember that opex p/t during ramp up will be much higher than $94 (average over 6 years). Could take time to get cashflow positive, and half the grant money appears to be spent already (otherwise why take out the loan??)... Would therefore also support putting off Regua until Q1/2 2020 if it meant avoiding cash call. Although, "if" they could get a ST loan facility like they have via the grant money, then that could be reason to push for earlier production

Agreed that there's lots of updates to look for for. However, believe that there are only a couple of them which are really going to make much difference

Separately, Kev's point on boredom a good one. Suppose this may be balanced by argument on decision to remove the camera feed...

Anyway. That's probs me for the day...

Quite understandable @GIT. Also another reason for checking in each day as quality of discussion isn't quite where it's been in the past

On side note, meant to write 20% down over 6 years. Better than a couple on here, but forgot to write the 'down' part in previous post, and it's this negative paper balance which plays with the mind... That's gotta be a sentence which everybody who's ever invested in any stock in the red has got to appreciate, and it's the patience and diligence of holding in the face of a red number which is the real challenge.

Morning Kev, it's the "if and when" which gives people the problem. Most of us here were expecting the 1.2p a year or two ago, let along a year or two from now... tbh, the warrants are a major hesitation for me. Think a growing reason why haven't sold more here is out of stubbornness. Still averaging 20% after over 6 years of waiting...by far the worst performer in my portfolio, for what was at one time the share where I had most faith

@GIT: Healthy shares should have a degree of "resident moaner groaners". A share which doesn't have anybody asking questions shouts out danger. I no longer follow this board too closely, but through my 'scans' every day or too, haven't really noticed much deramping.

Anyway... News by end of month, and then our 1st quarterly production update early Oct will be key milestones i think. Hence why am not following everything in here any more as without a surprise rns, don't see any reason for sp swinging much in any direction

In general, another on performance update from CAML. Still sitting on the sidelines at the moment due to commodity price decline. However, having broken multi-year lows, not sure how much more downwards this could go, perhaps it's more of questioning when this will start to go back up... probably around Sep for the Interims & dividend?

Re: Update though, the statement "Gross debt on 30 June 2019, $126.4 million" does confuse me slightly. Previous statements have always referred to "net debt", which was $110.3m as at end of December 2018... I'm assuming that we should read 126.4 less 30.2 (cash in bank) = $96.2m net debt +/- interest.

A decent payback on debt. Not difficult to see why Peel Hunt renewed coverage today at over 3 quid! 50% upside

When posted 11th as Trading Update yesterday, this was taken from : https://www.hl.co.uk/shares/shares-search-results/k/kier-group-plc-ordinary-1p/company-information
Generally, HL dates are accurate. KIE website does however state "All future dates are indicative and subject to change." They've subsequently removed ALL future dates from their website.
Never heard of a company faking release dates of a trading update before so am going for 11th (per HL), but others can remain skeptical if they want

Somewhat late reply, but FYI: Trading update due on 11th July .

Financials have been pre-warned to be underwhelming. Shorters likely to take advantage, but then following this the rebuild can properly commence

The retrace after RNS almost perfectly hit the 38% fib retrace on 4/5th July last week. 59p is setting up to be tough nut to break, it was clear peak twice during H2 2018 and a floor since late Q1 2015.

Given upcoming news flows, would anticipate share price to start to rise in very near term. Just needed to clear the remnants of that herd action which came in the other weeks there

I've not been doing a comparison for a while, but was in a few small cap comps before who were usually getting around 12%, and often with a touch of equity also to replace fees. But a few points on this: (a) they were producing and investing to ramp up, so had less risk than early stage venture, and (b) due to containing equity in exchange for fees, this usually resulted in dilutions as the shares were never kept, but sold off on market.
I honestly wasn't massively impressed by the terms of our debt as MM had been going on for months about how competitive and great our deal was going to be. I think the solitude in the %age and warrant (its the combo which bothered me) is the big name of blackrock. I believe that the intention was that securing this loan could be used for promotional purposes to attract other IIs. Emphasising the de-risking and yardy yar... unfortunately, this has absolutely not happened

View convo recently as sign of the times. We're so close and peeps are anxious. Devils posts have been quite reasonable of late (I've not read them all, just past 100 or so on the board). Did I even see realrealist saying he bought in the other day there!!?? It's clear this is moving in right direction and the count down is on. RNS on plant completion will be out any day. But tbh, who really cares? That's not the SP mover, its progress with the commissioning and production which we're after. Late July earliest (I recon) and then the first quarter report at end of Sep (earliest)! Those'll be the real testing times for our SP

Bearing in mind that they've already signed up for 160million $s into LACs other lithium mine, it makes sense to hedge risk. Sonora presents an alternative play and spreads geographical risk, corporate risk, and also political risk

Marklees reference to "years ago" just made me remember...wasn't original stage 1 idea to have annual production of 700t from old plant, pre new crusher, jig n all that? In which case, it's gotta be quite possible that if they wanted to, 20t could be quite easily surpassed.
Suggests to me that they're purposefully giving low numbers because there is going to be a lot of down time for adjustments and modifications (despite being capable of 24/7). Also suggests that when moved to Regua and receiving higher grade ore, that the 1000-1300t figures do look quite possible

If api/eia doesn't show continued drop, then oil likely to resume down to 61.7$-ish. Which also means shorters here gonna have a field day taking this down to retest the 68p
Missed out last time. Won't miss out next time if it makes it there again! Esp if happens this week, as pending update can only be good... although, pmo could probs wipe half a billion off debt and only sustain an sp rise of 10% for first hour of trading before the shorters come in again. Very tiresome!

"Diamond market expert Paul Zimnisky recently told UBS that natural diamond production will slip 12% in the five years to 2022".... This sentence immediately raises into question the whole article. Since when did 2022-2019=5years? Either this guys math is terrible, raising into question his ability to make financial forecasts, or he is purposefully manipulating 2 year old comments.

Personally, am surprised that we've gone sub 19.5, and i could see this dropping to test recent low of 18.5 now... I don't expect next update to offer revolutionary news, cause it was already stated that interests payments fell into the last quarter. But remain positive for growth during H2 calendar year for 2019. Worst case scenario is this should quickly bounce off low and create new floor at director buy level

Unsure @Gjones. IT sounds like they'd certainly consider a sale. But then, they should always be listening to the market. Either way, it won't be any time before the FID (which latest RNS put as being late next year). A lot can happen between now and then. For example, if oil rises and stablises around 75$ (quite significantly above their modeling) then it may make sense to keep it as it's a huge play. Contrastingly, if oil drops, then a sale for quick debt pay down makes sense - especially if they're looking to take out another 800mill for sea lion in near term.
Definitely makes sense to hold on to it for now. Important next step is getting its reserves on the balance sheet!
Fair @orient. I was just somewhat surprised as would of expected that ppts are almost a daily part of her job

Thanks for the link @gjones! Surprisingly shaky voice for a head of investment. However, very informative and personal highlights for me:

a) Explicit statement that debt payback over past 3 years is equal to our entire current market cap. That's some statistic!
b) Interest on debt during 2019 over 200m$s. That's a bill and a half! But as debt drops, this will drop in turn and savings here will automatically be reinvested into business (i.e. approx 10%)
c) Reiterated that debt reduction forecasted close to 350$m... I'd like to see this target broken though!
d) Break even at only 35$!!
e) Very much like the 2013/2019 boe cost base comparison at 4.20mins. Incredible improvements in efficiency!!
f) Chim Sao stats fantastic. Like how their highlighting not only the lifespan, but also price being 4$ premium to brent.
g) Like point at 7.3mins on decision to optimise catcher at current production levels, rather than invest + create disruption to expand. I def support this until debt is played down to under 2x (esp’ when generating half billion $ free cashflow net in 2019 at todays prices, Ref 9mins)
h) The Huntington & Elgin fields production rates & Tolmount product give ongoing testament to the genius behind the eon agreement.
i) Sea Lion anticipated at 800mill senior debt, 400mill from contractors, 300mill from operating cashflow between 2020-2024. Partner not to be brought in until funding cleared (approx. 15mins in)
j) Zama opex/capex stated in single digit $s… and this statement also indicates talk was prior to recent rns, as she referenced 600m barrels… She did reference selling as way to play down debt, but not until appraisal completed and development concept firmed up. From past RNS, not until end of next year earliest.
K) Block 30 apparently shows anomalies like zama did… sounds good for drilling next year
l) She states in 19:40 that exploiting current assets could add about 1billion$ npv to PMO balance sheet over next few years (graph until 2025, but looks optimised from 23, from where sea lion and zama kick in)

Future looks very promising!

"IF" it were down to fundamentals, then having paid off 300mill debt (surely to be more by now) and gained a billion dollar asset, MC of PMO should of risen to compensate this different. That'd of equated to a like-for-like SP of no less than 100% from where we were 6 months ago.

Thing is, fundamentals appear almost irrelevant to SP - at least in the short term.

PMO is highly volatile, but, am very much a buy and hold here. Anything under 75p is bound to turn up good within a 6 month window. Swings can't go backwards forever, just a matter of time before forces push it the other way

Headline doesn't state "going deeper". However, nothing stopping them. Saudi's been running at half mill below it's ceiling already.
Pausing through to next spring makes sense. Winter is naturally a downtime anyway, so it'll get much of lower production & maintenance season wrapped into this
Main thing is seeing what happens to shale during that time. US has accounted for 98% of all global production growth in 2019 and is set to add another half million a day over the next year. A bit of slow down there / further question into financials of some of these companies, and then things could be drastically different
Brent bounced off 64$ on Fri, so we should hopefully see a nice rise on market open this week

INSTEX relieves pressure on Iran, and China's also stated that it will continue to import oil from Iran. The market had at least partially priced in the Iranian sanctions, but now it's clear that there will be a degree of by-passing them. i.e. more oil on the market = oil price goes down

This is very much being played at the moment, in control of traders. Oil could drop back to 59/60$, and PMO could retest the lows. Shorters were v clear that they wanted lower as they were still loading up at much lower than here. So sub 68p is still a possibility.

Should it go there, hells no! I expect this week to be highly volatile, but then hopefully some rising in anticipation to what will undoubtedly be a great trading update

Smallest share by a long way (sold out original holding after 50% increase from 22p). Still great to see something showing the right colour today!
SP is showing 20% during auction post market close and still climbing. Tomorrow's likely going to be a good day!

Thanks GIT. Quarterly reporting is ideal for new company, especially as ramping up. It'll give good percentage increase headlines to build sentiment, but is also not too frequent so as to have the herd constantly coming and going. I've been in some stocks that had monthly reporting, that the volatility wasn't good

Pending broker notes in 3-6 week window makes sense, as should time with the commissioning of the plant. Putting anything out now and valuations must still factor commissioning risk into the SP. Why knock off 10-20%+ from a valuation due to a couple weeks impatience. 3-6 weeks is good... and we'll likely have 2 RNSs on LP between now and then to verify plant construction completion and installation of MCC unit for commissioning.

Hope the meetings with IIs don't generate anything like what happened with Milton. That was a terrible negotiation and SP still hasn't recovered. Am a strong advocate of making IIs buy at a premium to SP, which (a) is still a saving to what they'd pay at mkt rate, and (b) provides direct funds for the company, which could be handy when making up this approx 2mill USD shortfall on Regua.

Perhaps its wrongly interpreted, but the reply on raising further funds does not sound positive to me. If LP's half as good as its' made out to be, wait 6 months and use some of these millions of profits rather than dilute SP. There should be no question on this and this type of reply scares me. Regua, glod n Tarouca will all still be there (if we even have rights to T?)