Member Info for JTS13

Lol... problem with typing a longer post is that you can be the 5th one to post the point by the time you finish and then look like a moaning turd!

Jaf's quite right on this one. Financials provided are stated in PPT as averages over 6 year period. OPEX p/MTU going to be higher than 94$ prior to Stage 2 being completed - hence why EBITDA %ages from Year 4 onwards start rising substantially... I'm sure that there was a doc released a year or 2 back which details opex and how it will drop incrementally during the period, but unfortunately can't remember which one/where.

There does seem to be an increasing number of confused posts recently. e.g. someone just posted this morning about pending gold jorc being higher than previous expectations. They're 75% less!

Great to have some newbies joining, hopefully there'll be many more coming. However, references to financials etc should be more objective, as throwing around these sorts of things is what leads to disappointment, poor sentiment and share sales

For me, 3 years post plant starting has always been key... I just figured that we'd of been there already as my first sells were timed for end of 2018 through to 2023. Whilst have much less than some others in here, going to really struggle to keep funds locked down much longer as this all aligned with mortgage payments etc etc

Random point, but having just scanned through range of old docs for the opex p/mtu rates (which couldn't find), do suggest any newbie take a look at the Turner Pope Report from May 2018. WRES hasn't updated numbers since, so it's not much outdated in that sense, but it's easily the most informative report on WRES that I've come across

PS: If 20 goes, shorters could be trying to make another attack on 18.5...

Going to have to dig out some spare cash in case that happens again as won't be around for long. Last time didn't even last the full 24hr stretch

Next trading update on 22nd July.

Personally expecting it to be somewhat mixed. We'll have the bonus of the large diamond sales, and probably some form of update on forward strategy with new CEO being on the team for a good few months by then. However, there were some big interest payments this quarter which'll limit debt repayment, and it's the bottom line figure here which market needs to start upping the SP.

Anticipate second half of the the year to be more important...patience required here

Kinda meaningless no? Obv the hypothetical miner is based on WRES's circumstance. But challenging someone about thinking of where a company may be in near future (6 months is near future) defies the very purpose of investing. Who invests for the past?

The ppt is in need of updating. Some slides were, such as the gold estimate which was revised down considerably. The financials have not been revised, but they should actually be revised up, not down. So doesn't really support the argument...

I think thechasers comment at 17:54 says it all. Got some spare cash coming along but don't know whether or not to invest here cause something seems not right with the SP

Agree that new broker note will be coming out. But doesn't make sense to publish until the plant is fully constructed and well along with commissioning. Given MM inferred final piece of plant probably not being completed by friday, highly doubt this would be available by Friday

SP in 3 months time won't give a toss if concentrator is completed this Friday or next Friday. It's the commissioning and ramp up which market wants. This is where WOLF flopped and where ORM is struggling. We gotta prove ourselves different. The fact that we've had small production greater me confidence

Pressing for me is (i) getting this gold jorc out of the way and then stop spending, (ii) clarify regua plan. Revised ppt had errors, and in his interview MM hinted that if not paid out of LP profits, could include some other form of financing. I hope that's not a placing, esp' given it being so small amount!

We gotta get these milestones done this year. Next year will be plagued with warrants... argh, great op. But many challenges over next 18 months

@Jaf, our typing overlapped. So my point on no change was towards Dreaming. However, with regards to your point, the change from titling columns from specific annual year (e.g. 2019) to generic year (e.g. year 1) should be read as production year, rather than fiscal year.

No change on the EBITDA information provided. Look back at past investor ppts, they're still using identical numbers (e.g. May Pres, p.19)

Certainly a few other changes though. Like getting confused between sending the crusher / concentrator to Regua? Gold estimate close to being halved as every year passes. 1mill, then 400k, and now 250k.

Re: comment on cumulative production, LP was originally forecasted at 4.2k, Regua at 1.3k, and then Tarouca at 'x' more. Haven't heard about Tarouca for a while - but I'm not complaining.

Interestingly, just nipped a glance back at the August ppt. It does highlight the commissioning and ramp up period of the plant to last around 5 months, which is consistent with what we're hearing now. Just a shame that this info was removed from more recent ppts and has been a source of confusion... But then, going back to the August 17 ppt, is also highlights the project slippage, as we were supposed to have already ramped up to full production over a year ago. Jeeze, time does fly!

Got that GIT, n given our other project development costs, a lower PE than industry average is quite fair. Perhaps 4.4 may be too low, but better to plan on side of caution.
The forward PE vs. actual PE makes big difference though. So would much prefer the former. However, with MMs comm history n what not, the latter could well be likely. And that'll only delay SP rise...hence why I would be satisfied with 2p by end of next year.
If you asked me 5 years ago, I'd of wanted closer to 5p by end of 2020, but that's just how it is.

A key potential boost our SP could get in next couple of years is if the gold spin off got put back on the cards again. Not only could we get a wee bonus in a new company (20% or whatever of current SP), but we'd no longer have to deal with expenditure on development... always a wishing

Agree with capras call based on the charts (although I'd of thought 64.5 would of been a big floor to break on the way to 55p). Iran is a temporary prop for oil. If oil dropped 10%, PMO could tank 30%. The fact that we've not retraced beyond the lousy 70s, struggling to scrape over the 50% mark from drop of last years' highs, suggests to me that big traders are expecting this rise to be short lived and that the drop will resume

We're testing bottom of a range atm. Short term fluctuations are crazy right now. But give it a couple of years, this'll likely be a couple of quid or more. So buying in at 65 or 80 won't be a huge concern by then (if you're a long term holder that is)

@GIT: Understand that the messages & calculations are just to prove a point, but just to clarify. You using PE or Forward PE? Cause that makes significant difference in terms of when the SP calculation is forecasted

Personally think gold will continue to drag our SP for another couple of years, and debt paybacks combined with investment for plant upgrade will limit dividends. So anticipate real returns to stem from end of 2022 onwards. However, I'd be happy with 2p by end of next year

Part of the problem is that ST charts look questionable. ST being anything up to 4hr. They suggest at least a short term cooling off to relax the RSI etc... But given day charts are still positive, and oil is up significantly, would expect this to positively impact SP over the next few days / week. Which is turn will feed into anticipation of OPEC sustaining their cuts and then the trading update.
I'm a firm believer that PMO's a no-brainer over a 2+ year window - likely a multi-bagger as I'm hoping for a couple of quid. However, current volatility is certainly a challenge and a lot of folks are either staying away, or bagging profit whenever it appears. This could continue to be the case until the interims show more detailed overview of whats happening on the balance sheet and IIs become more convinced that debt is coming down.
Its a good share to trade. A good share to invest in for minimum of 2 year window. But a terrible share to invest in for period of just a few months due to being an emotional roller coaster... If ur not a trader n find yourself looking at a share price several times a day, then current investment strategy is probably not suitable

There is a bit of selling action as we hit 78p... those people opening short plays (per DBNO's earlier comment) I wonder?

Too risky for me... with oil as is, along with expectations for coming month+, risk of being caught out very high. Had quote at 68p bottom, but didn't buy cause thought it would reach 65. Not wanting to now make same mistake but in reverse

Looks to me that brent has just broken the ceiling, and entered onto new floor we had set since 8th March... Assuming it holds, indicates a good day tomorrow and strengthens the up trend

Trade with the trend

Excellent presentation. Thanks for posting reference

Thanks @Red for highlighting the multi-stage commissioning process. Like many, I was confused by the apparent contradiction in wording within this single RNS, let alone against previous RNSs and videos over this past 6 months... Assuming your assumption be right, it accentuates all the more the importance of clear communication. For example, for us who were believing that we were in production at 20T from December and already ramped up to 35-ish, this potentially wipes off 6 months revenues from our calculations - equating to another couple million USD. Combined with the equity & warrant falafel
Equally, this worst case scenario cannot be entirely right, as in one of his recent video interviews MM states that they'd shipped off product to a customer just the day prior to his interview... Much uncertainty these days!

I've just gone back to the investor ppt from May last year. And whilst I dismiss all of the financial numbers (clearly bogus now), the timeline on p.16 is still useful as it highlights an averaged 3 month commissioning for each major piece of the plant. "Hand over" is about 2 months after the concentrator plant is completed. Perhaps this is when we should begin to see production numbers start to materialise. That translates to 'from' beginning of September onwards

...

On a separate note, I saw the comment that the Regua resource work was "no later than October". Sounds like MM has emphasised the frustration to their partner on this. Equally, I note it's the same company that did the first JORC work on LP and then got sidelined. Trust all will go well there

@Soulsister, we all start with small holdings and build. I'm glad my initial purchases were small cause there were at 1.1p!!!

Ah, right, yes, that makes sense. Thanks Devil.
And yeh TT, don't we all

Think I've misunderstood something somewhere.... Troajan in with just 750k? And for some reason I thought Trumpton was Marcus Garvie

PS: I'm still on my way down... Currently 6.25mill, but likely 5mill (as quoted) by end of the month

Beg to differ @Stealthy. Our glod is worth sod all. Actually, worse, when we announced a dozen storey hole of the stuff our SP tanked. Perhaps we'd be better off paying someone to take it from us!?

RE: Quarter business. It's simply cause MM is running businesses across half a dozen countries, half of which use different fiscal / accounting years. UK accounting year is Apr-Mar, but fiscal year relates to end of month of registration. MM is Australian, where fiscal year is July to June. WRES is in Spain, where fiscal year is Jan to Dec. Our key investors are US, where fiscal year is often Oct - Sep.

Strategic mgt rarely states specific dates because it's too operational and detailed. It's normal to quote by quarter. And given our stakeholder base is so wide, referring to the quarter by month, rather than by number, is actually sensible as it "avoids confusion", cause if he referred to a numerical quarter someone is bound to make a mistake somewhere as to knowing which fiscal year he's calculating from.

If anything were to be argued about the quarter business, it's more about him using the last month of the quarter rather than the first - which is what most people would do. However, perhaps he's doing that as a precautionary measure, by buying as much time in the quarter as he can. Equally, psychologically if something gets released in Apr, May or Jun, it's all the same quarter, but people will be even happier if it's in Apr or May.

Don't think PMO SP is related to oil price (apart from when it goes down). See shorters wanting this to go down to 65-ish before letting it go. Why else with oil up 2$s on last weeks close would PMO SP be down

I've got a couple of grand in in case I'm wrong. But PMO has gotta be worst performer in most of our portfolios by a long way... With opec meeting a few weeks off, and our next trading update not until July, nothing much to keep the shorters at bay